I had a tough week last week and the initial reaction is to rethink the methods and process, but after a few days to let the week pass, a clearer thought emerges. If you believe the methodology in which you make selections is sound, then you stick with it, and let the "noise" of a losing week roll off your back like water on a duck's behind. So I look to improve off of last week and cut into the deficit remembering it's a marathon and not a sprint. The game never ends men, and riding out the bad weeks knowing better weeks are in store is a learned behavior and one that I admittedly struggle with at times. So with that out of the way let's get to it.
YTD 10-14 (-6.1 Units)
322 Minnesota -18 (1 Unit) -120 buy 1/2 LOSS
Rutgers travel for only the 3rd time this season as they visit the Gophers. They have scored a total of 14 points over the last 4 games (Iowa, Ohio St, Michigan, Illinois) and average 10 points a game, not including their non FBS game against Howard. Minnesota's defense, 22nd overall, falls at the mid-point between (Ohio St/Michigan and Iowa/Illinois), so I don't see a situation where Rutgers performs offensively greater than their average. If Minnesota can score 30 points (they average 25 a game in FBS) then I think they have a solid shot at covering this number.
390 Stanford -1 (1 Unit) -120 buy 1/2 LOSS
Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey missed last week vs ND and is questionable at this time, but close to returning from what has been publicly disclosed. If he can't go, Bryce Love steps in and he performed very well last week against the Irish, running for 129 yards at 6 yards per attempt. While the Stanford offense is definitely more dynamic with Mccaffrey, I think the Cardinal offense will have success on the ground against the Buffs regardless of who starts. I keep asking myself why are the 44th ranked Cardinal laying any points to 18th ranked Colorado? Public perception must be Stanford isn't any good or they believe McCaffrey is a no go, or both. The public has pushed this to down to Stanford -1.5 and -2 at most shops off a -3.5 open and I'll work against the public here. If McCaffrey is a go I expect to see some Stanford buyback. I have Stanford better by 7 so I'll take them back home on the Farm.
330 Nebraska -24 (1 Unit) LOSS
Purdue fired their HC last week and the question is how do they respond? The Boilermakers travel to Lincoln to face Big Red, who find themselves ranked 8th in the country. It just so happens Nebraska also may be looking for a little payback after losing at Purdue last year 55-45. Nebraska hasn't really blown anyone out lately but I think that changes this week as Nebraska gets back to running the ball against the 128th ranked rushing defense of Purdue. I am a little leery of laying solid double digits with the Huskers, especially with Wisconsin on deck at Camp Randall, and find myself asking the question why are they 24 point favorites? The answer is that Purdue's defense is statistically worse than Fresno St and Wyoming, two teams that Nebraska hung 43 and 52 on. More of the same this week in Lincoln as long as the Huskers are focused on this week and not next.
367 Illinois/368 Michigan Under 56 (1 Unit) buy 1/2 -120 WIN
Anyone who has read my previous college selections know that I don't like playing Under's in college. I do make exceptions and this is one that I think is worthy of reaching into the pocket. Everyone knows the Wolverines defense is very good, indeed coming in at 7th overall in the country. Quietly though, Illinois is better than NCAA average with a stop unit ranked 44th overall. While it is entirely possible for Harbaugh to lay 55 on the Illini by themselves, I don't think that will materialize for 2 reasons. The first and most important reason is that Michigan travels to East Lansing next week to take on Michigan State and will be looking ahead to atone for losing 7 of the last 8 to Sparty, none more heart wrenching for the Maze and Blue than last years improbable last second loss on a botched punt that Michigan State took to the house to win. The second reason is weather related as the wind is projected to be 15 MPH and makes the passing game a bit more difficult. I envision a game in which Michigan gets out to a solid lead and looks to shorten the game and keep the clock running by keeping the ball on the ground. This one has "steam" on both the Over and Under, and 2 RLM moves to the Under. I'll go with RLM and against the public given the 2 reasons stated above. I have this one at 45 total.
393 Middle Tennessee State/394 Missouri Under 74 (1 Unit) LOSS
Another Under as the Blue Raiders travel to Columbia to face the Tigers, who find themselves in an SEC sandwich off Florida and with Kentucky up next. I think MTSU will find the sledding very difficult in this one, as they face their second SEC team this year. The connection to draw is that they combined for 71 points against Vanderbilt and in that one 2 turnovers and a blocked punt led to 17 of the 71 points. The Tigers offense is a bit better than the Commodores, but so is their defense. So while Mizzou should and could score more than the 47 Vanderbilt laid on them, I don't think MTSU can score as many as they scored against the Commodores. Vegas opened this at 69.5 and it has been "steamed" on 2 occasions so far from 71 and now sits at 74. I'll go against the public here and side with what I see on the sharper side of the ledger and go Under 74.
407 Colorado State/408 UNLV Over 57 (1 Unit) WIN
Here we have two teams who have offensive edges against the other teams defenses, and fairly solid ones at that. The UNLV offense is rated 74th overall vs a CSU defense ranked 110th overall. Conversely the Rams offense comes in ranked at 71st against the overall rated 115th Rebel defense. Both of these offenses should find success on the ground. UNLV has the 46th ranked run offense vs the CSU run stop unit at 106th, while the Rams running game is ranked 43rd vs the Rebels 121st ranked defense against the run. This one kind of reminds me of the Air Force and New Mexico game last week where both offenses held strong advantages rushing vs the running defenses. Market wise, I see a very strong 7-0 RLM move out of the Greek at 56.5 and a very solid steam move coming out of Pinny at 58.
377 Oregon State/378 Washington Under 53 (1 Unit) LOSS
Oregon State travels to Husky Stadium and one of the toughest venues in college football. They are starting their 3rd string QB, who should not find any hospitalities extended by the Husky defense, currently ranked 3rd overall. The Beavers are ranked 103rd offensively and that was with their first 2 QB's, so I don't see any reason to think they are going to put many points on the board. HC Anderson knows his offense can't pass the ball and I don't think they really try too many this week. They do run it fairly well, coming in with a rushing offense ranked 27th. However, they are going to be facing the 5th ranked rushing defense in the league, so even though they will have to run it by default, they won't find much success. I know the Huskies can hit this total by themselves if they want to and they are off a bye week after their dismantling and humiliation of Oregon, however, I think the Huskies will be looking ahead slightly to Utah next week. Much like the Illinois and Michigan Under, I feel this one will be decided early and then the brakes will be applied in the 4th quarter. Looking to the market this one has the public on the Over to the tune of almost 7 to 1, while the sharp money is on the Under at over 8-1. I'll go with RLM and the sharps on this one.
As always, good luck Gents and let's get back on the winning track!