A nice four play all-sport sweep for us yesterday - and we move on. We've still got the $175/month all-access football special, and have loaded Big Bets for both Saturday and Sunday. L-O-V-E them both.
Cashed the free one on South Alabama last night - still like the SJSU TT under a fair bit as well.
South Florida/Temple: The Owls' defense isn't what we've come to expect, but neither is their offense. They're giving up points, but they're scoring a ton. They're undefeated at home, scoring 45 on SMU and 48 on Charlotte, and off a nice road win at Central Florida, so at first glance I don't get the line. USF has put up a ton of points as well, but they REALLY haven't played anyone except what we now know is a weaker FSU team, who trounced them worse than the score indicated. USF won this game at home last season big-time, and as a +2.5 point underdog - they combined for 67 points, and given all the aforementioned the over would look doable. So, I don't quite get the four point drop in the total - but 64 (the opener) would be a very big total. But, that drop was done very quickly and off the Bookmaker opener, most books opened at 60 - I suspect it climbs back up at some point closer to game time. Temple is 6-1 ATS and USF is 5-2 - Temple has been terrible on third downs, which can be a problem. Knowing that the Owls probably don't want a shootout here - I do think the under is perhaps the best play.
Oregon/Cal: Call me insane, but I like the Ducks here. I want nothing to do with that total (the third highest ever, from what I read) - since it could easily see 100, but needing 13 touchdowns to win an "over" bet just isn't something I want to try. By the same token, I don't have the gonads for the under. IMO Cal's only good win was at home against Utah, which is also their lowest scoring game of the season, by far - the Ducks can still put up points, but simply cannot stop anyone. I have to think they make SOME adjustments after allowing SEVENTY points to Washington last week. I guess conventional wisdom would say that Cal is pissed, having lost seven straight to the Ducks, none of them even close. About the only thing in Oregon's favor is that they've played a tougher schedule, which is perhaps why they appear to be begging for Cal money. I'm not sure I can handicap this one on paper - and although 75% of the tickets are on the Bears, there's not really enough to make a judgement call on where the money really is - it hasn't come off of 3 - which is obviously the hardest number to move, but in a high scoring game, +3 is worth a lot less than a low scoring game. I'll wait this one out, but unless something happens that's a head scratcher I won't take Cal - the reason being is that I despise flipping and losing. I'd rather pass - but by the same token not FORCE an Oregon bet.
SJSU/SDSU: Rocky Long's teams have long been known for defense, but inexplicably they allowed 42 points and lost at South Alabama - and allowed 40 to Cal at home. The Aztecs play Utah State next week, which is perhaps the only game they may not be prohibitive favorites in the rest of the season, so I have to wonder just how seriously they take SJSU. San Jose State can't score (throw out the New Mexico game, really) so there is little chance of taking the over, even at 48 - it's that low for a reason, and what I could take from this one is the SJSU team total UNDER - which may be my free play and the best bet of the night regardless.