383 UTEP at 384 UTSA
Take: UTSA -9.5
I think it’s safe to say this CUSA clash won’t be getting much attention on Saturday, but I can see where there’s a case to be made for the favorite to potentially reward its backers.
I absorbed a loss last weekend on UTSA. The Roadrunners managed to win at Rice, but only by one point, so the Owls edged out the win the way we keep score here in Las Vegas.
Texas-San Antonio might well have gotten both the win and cover, but they passed on a short field goal attempt fairly late in the game, opting to try for the TD instead. That proved to be a bad decision, and in fact, the Roadrunners were lucky to preserve the straight up win as Rice drove down the field before missing a three that could have won the game.
This might well have been a flat spot as it turned out, as UTSA was off a blowout upset against Southern Miss and they were nowhere near as sharp against the reeling Owls. I am expecting better this week, particularly since the Roadrunners want to run the football and the Miners cannot stop the run.
UTEP head coach Sean Kugler is basically pulling out all the stop this week. The Miners didn’t play last week, so Kugler decided to go full pads in a very tough Tuesday workout. This was basically the type of drill that usually takes place prior to the season, so if you want to call it a back to square one practice, that’s probably accurate.
Kugler will also be making some lineup changes this week. Ryan Metz is now the starting QB, Kavika Johnson is going to now play mostly wide receiver and I just get the sense it’s desperation time for a coach who might be feeling some heat.
UTEP is mess to be sure. One of the local columnists wrote a Monday on the state of the athletic program. He bestowed praise on the athletic director, but bemoaned the apparent fact that the Miners can’t compete in football because they’re in El Paso. The story just had that defeated feel to it, and while this is just an opinion, I kind of get the impression that the writer is reflecting the atmosphere in the locker room.
On the numbers, I have UTSA -11.5, so there’s at least an edge as far as the power ratings are concerned. The stat comparison actually favors UTEP, which surprised me at first glance. But the team’s general lack of efficiency on both sides of the football.
I can’t say I’m wild about laying a bundle with a pretty ordinary Roadrunners entry. But this is a big game for the home team as far as getting bowl eligible down the road is concerned. UTEP has the look of a team that will help first year head coach Frank Wilson’s team achieve that objective. If the Miners fall down early, they have not exactly been immune to getting run over and I think that might be the case here. I’ll side with UTSA minus the points.
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