Keep in mind, these computer lines don’t take into consideration off-the-field factors like revenge or flat spots. They are basically a power-rating number difference between the two teams that also takes into consideration the home field advantage.
Games where there have been of difference of more than 3 points has seen my computer lines beat the Vegas line at a 38-30-2 (56%) clip so far this season.
Of the 18 games where my computer is off more than 3 points compared to the Vegas line, my 5 favorite teams to back would be Duke -5.5, Texas +11.5, Arkansas +14, Idaho +4.5 and San Diego St -15
Let me know if you have any questions or concerns
Brad
Game |
Line |
Computer |
Difference |
301 Georgia Southern |
|
|
|
302 Arkansas State |
+7 |
+1.67 |
+5.33 |
305 Temple |
|
|
|
306 Memphis |
-10 |
-6.79 |
+3.21 |
307 Western Kentucky |
|
|
|
308 Louisiana Tech |
+3 |
+2.39 |
+0.61 |
|
|
|
|
311 Clemson |
|
|
|
312 Boston College |
+17 |
+16.05 |
+0.95 |
313 SMU |
|
|
|
314 Tulsa |
-15.5 |
-11.55 |
+3.95 |
315 Boise State |
|
|
|
316 New Mexico |
+18 |
+16.53 |
+1.47 |
365 Massachusetts |
|
|
|
366 Old Dominion |
-7 |
-9.89 |
-2.89 |
317 Miami Ohio |
|
|
|
318 Akron |
-7.5 |
-8.39 |
-0.89 |
319 Kent State |
|
|
|
320 Buffalo |
+1.5 |
-1.31 |
+2.81 |
321 Northern Illinois |
|
|
|
322 Western Michigan |
-20 |
-19.6 |
+0.4 |
323 BYU |
|
|
|
324 Michigan State |
-6 |
-6.63 |
-0.63 |
325 Georgia Tech |
|
|
|
326 Pittsburgh |
-6.5 |
-7.93 |
-1.43 |
327 Maryland |
|
|
|
328 Penn State |
+1.5 |
-6.42 |
-7.92 |
329 Iowa State |
|
|
|
330 Oklahoma State |
-17 |
-20 |
-3 |
331 Cincinnati |
|
|
|
332 Connecticut |
+3 |
+1.05 |
+1.95 |
333 TCU |
|
|
|
334 Kansas |
+28.5 |
+24.79 |
+3.71 |
335 Army |
|
|
|
336 Duke |
-5.5 |
-9.27 |
-3.77 |
337 Syracuse |
|
|
|
338 Wake Forest |
-3 |
-4.03 |
-1.03 |
339 Texas Tech |
|
|
|
340 Kansas State |
-8 |
-6.34 |
+1.66 |
341 Iowa |
|
|
|
342 Minnesota |
+1 |
-1.24 |
+2.24 |
343 Indiana |
|
|
|
344 Ohio State |
-28.5 |
-27.97 |
+0.53 |
345 Purdue |
|
|
|
346 Illinois |
-10.5 |
-7.26 |
+3.24 |
347 Virginia Tech |
|
|
|
348 North Carolina |
-1.5 |
-6.89 |
-5.39 |
349 Notre Dame |
|
|
|
350 NC State |
-2 |
+0.35 |
+2.35 |
351 Bowling Green |
|
|
|
352 Ohio |
-12 |
-10.58 |
+1.42 |
353 Toledo |
|
|
|
354 Eastern Michigan |
+17 |
+15.97 |
+1.03 |
355 Houston |
|
|
|
356 Navy |
+17 |
+15.31 |
+1.69 |
357 East Carolina |
|
|
|
358 South Florida |
-19 |
-15.57 |
+3.43 |
359 Oklahoma |
|
|
|
360 Texas |
+11.5 |
+6.94 |
+4.56 |
361 Florida State |
|
|
|
362 Miami Florida |
-3 |
-2.62 |
+0.38 |
363 Texas State |
|
|
|
364 Georgia State |
-10 |
-7.61 |
+2.39 |
369 UCLA |
|
|
|
370 Arizona State |
+10 |
+6.71 |
+3.29 |
371 Ball State |
|
|
|
372 Central Michigan |
-12.5 |
-11.89 |
+0.61 |
373 Air Force |
|
|
|
374 Wyoming |
+10.5 |
+10.47 |
+0.03 |
375 Georgia |
|
|
|
376 South Carolina |
+7 |
+7.81 |
-0.81 |
377 Tennessee |
|
|
|
378 Texas A&M |
-7 |
-4.63 |
+2.37 |
379 Vanderbilt |
|
|
|
380 Kentucky |
-3 |
-0.24 |
+2.76 |
381 Auburn |
|
|
|
382 Mississippi State |
+2.5 |
+3 |
+0.5 |
383 Fresno State |
|
|
|
384 Nevada |
-8 |
-10.24 |
-2.24 |
385 Washington |
|
|
|
386 Oregon |
+9 |
+8.03 |
+0.97 |
387 Colorado |
|
|
|
388 USC |
-5.5 |
-7.3 |
-1.8 |
389 Michigan |
|
|
|
390 Rutgers |
+30 |
+24.33 |
+5.67 |
391 Marshall |
|
|
|
392 North Texas |
+10 |
+11.07 |
-1.07 |
393 Southern Miss |
|
|
|
394 Tex San Antonio |
+16.5 |
+13.98 |
+2.52 |
397 Idaho |
|
|
|
398 UL - Monroe |
-4.5 |
+.45 |
+4.95 |
399 Florida International |
|
|
|
400 UTEP |
-6 |
-6.01 |
-0.01 |
401 Alabama |
|
|
|
402 Arkansas |
+14 |
+10.06 |
+3.94 |
403 Arizona |
|
|
|
404 Utah |
-10 |
-10.58 |
-0.58 |
405 UNLV |
|
|
|
406 San Diego State |
-15 |
-18.43 |
-3.43 |
407 Washington State |
|
|
|
408 Stanford |
-7.5 |
-12.78 |
-5.28 |
409 California |
|
|
|
410 Oregon State |
+13.5 |
+9.93 |
+3.57 |
411 Utah State |
|
|
|
412 Colorado State |
+6 |
+4.99 |
+1.01 |
413 Hawaii |
|
|
|
414 San Jose State |
-3 |
-4.05 |
-1.05 |