Getting better. 5-2 on plays and 3-1 on my leans.
Win - Buffalo @ Boston College -17.5 – Buffalo was outgained by almost 200 yards in their win against Army. Should be similar to BC’s easy win over UMass in week 2. BC needs to win these types of games when in the division with Florida State, Clemson and Louisville.
Win - Wisconsin @ Michigan UNDER 44.5 – Numbers 11 & 12 in total defense in FBS
Win - Minnesota @ Penn State -2.5 – Played against Penn State the last two weeks and won both. Minnesota has wins over two FBS teams that are not very good (Oregon State & Colorado State) and FCS Indiana State. First road game for Minnesota. These are just the kind of games James Franklin wins (One of Stanford Steve’s of ESPN Chalk best bets).
Loss - Wake Forest @ NC State UNDER 48– Wake has three wins over Power Five conference teams. NC State has yet to face a Power Five opponent. Wake is playing good defense and should turn this into a defensive battle. Would have picked Wake to cover but don’t like the way Indiana handed them the game with turnovers last week.
Win - Virginia +3.5 @ Duke – Hard not to be relishing the win in South Bend if you’re a Duke football player. Probably the biggest win in recent history for the Blue Devils. Interesting thing is, Virginia probably beat a team that is playing better football right now in Central Michigan.
Loss - Western Michigan @ Central Michigan +3 – Western won this matchup at home by 2 last year. Central is actually 4 spots better in total offense and Western is one spot better in total defense. Getting points due to Central losing to Virginia and Western beating Illinois and Northwestern.
Win - Tulane -3 @ UMass – UMass is getting way too much credit for hanging around with Miss State for a half. Tulane has a very good coach and they are playing good football already. Their only losses are to Wake Forest and Navy, both teams are currently undefeated.
Leans
Win - Utah State +19.5 @ Boise State – Way too many points here. Boise is undefeated but their three opponents are a combined 4-6, with only two of those wins against FBS opponents. Boise is having a nice season but it hasn’t been tested at all yet. Utah State won this game SU last year and should easily keep this within the spread.
Win - SMU @ Temple -12 – SMU’s QB is out for the season. Temple won this game at SMU by 20 last season. Temple’s tough defense should limit SMU’s scoring. Only second year of Chad Morris’s rebuilding process in Dallas.
Loss - Purdue +10 @ Maryland – Purdue is starting to step up and recover from its mistakes. Great second half against Nevada. Maryland struggled to get past UCF and benefited from UCF turnovers.
Win - Tennessee @ Georgia +3.5 – Most people are crowning the Vols SEC East champs after beating Florida. Tennessee still hasn’t played a complete game, and has injury issues. Georgia’s backfield is healthy and ready. Big emotional letdown spot for Tenn after finally beating the Gators.
My unders come from Dennis Tyler's system. Check it out here. I use his system to bring games to my attention then research the ones that I feel have the best chance of going under.