It's an intriguing match up, and a definite key to the SEC-East hierarchy this year
177 Tenn. -3/54 at Georgia
After 4 games with a new coaching staff and a new QB, the Bulldogs have not proved they're going to
win the SEC-East, at least not this year. Freshman QB Eason, though could be the future, is going
through growing pain, and does not come close to being the Bulldogs savior this year. His rating is very
poor after 4 games (114 QBR, ranked #100+) despites having 5 of the top 6 targets returning. Rush
offense is definitely better with RB Sony Mitchel now fully healthy, but Nick Chubb status is uncertain
with a sprained ankle (suffered in 2Q vs Ole Miss) and was seen in a walking boot.
The surprise here is probably at the defense. The Bulldogs were averaged at 16.9 ppg scoring defense
in 2015 (ranked #8 in the nation) but have allowed 30 ppg this year (#84) Looking deeper into the 2015
stats has revealed that the #8 ranking was a by-product of the Bulldogs' offensively inept competitions.
Of the 13 opponents in 2015, only 2 teams with a pulse on offense in Alabama and Tennessee, and they
each scored 38 points on the Bulldogs. Of the 8 SEC oppnt's LY, they combined for a conference-average of
20.9 ppg offensively, and Bulldogs allowed an average 19.9 ppg to these 8 teams. It's really no surprise
to see the Bulldogs giving up 120 points in 4 games. It will be better though.
If RB Chubb is healthy and QB Eason progresses, the offense is solid going forward. The biggest
problem is at the Pass Defense, more specifically the anemic pass rush. Opponents have attempted
129 passes but only 4 sacks (#111) while the Bulldogs allowed 12 sacks in 135 pass attempts. To put it
in perspective, the Gators have 17 sacks in 86 oppnt's pass attempts. That's a huge gap to catch up.
Without pass rush the pass coverage will continue to suffer, despites returning 8 of their top 9 DBs
QB J. Dobbs has improved steadily (228 ypg in 2015 to 262 ypg total offense) but already committed
5 INTs in only 107 pass attempts (only had 5 INT in 344 attempts LY) The offense is very balanced and
seemed to hit on all cylinders, putting up 38 points and 498 yds on a tough Gators defense. The defense
is pretty much an SEC middle-of-the-pack unit, and the pass rush needs to be improved from #99 ranking.
LY the Volunteers got a 38-31 shoot-out home win over the Bulldogs, and outgained 519 to 444 total yards.
That win broke a 5 straight losses to the Bulldogs. This week the Volunteers, after breaking an 11-losses
streak to Gators, are tasked to end another win-less streak in Athens (since 2004 and 0-4 in that span).
This could be a tough spot for the Volunteers in their first true road test of the season after pretty much
spending all of their energy in an emotional comeback victory over the Gators last week. But I believe
the only chance the Bulldogs to pull an upset is to have a huge differential in TO's margin.
Pick: Tennessee -3 -115