Top 5 Picks
157 Mia -6.5/52.5 at Ga Tech
The Canes have turned the corner for the better under new coach Mark Ritch. They've played more
physical and with better discipline. A noticeable improvement is the defense under DC Manny Diaz,
(former Miss ST) especially the run defense has been very stout. The Canes held a very good team,
Appl. ST, to 10 points and 241 yards total offense.
After an impressive win over Vanderbilt, the Yellow Jackets could not get anything going offensively
against the Tigers defense, managed a mere 124 yards total offense and 7 points. They could be in
for another long day vs the Canes.
Pick: Miami -6.5
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153 Akron -6.5/54.5 at Kent ST
Zips' QB Thomas Woodson has improved by leaps-and-bounds this year, registered a 177.5 QBR and
ranked #9 in the nation. This great rating is not for playing against cupcakes either. Last week I
picked them to cover as +5.5 dog but fell short by a score 38-45 due to 2 INTs in the 1Q, and the Zips
could not recover from those huge mistakes.
LY the Zips secured a 20-0 home win vs the Flashes, and held them to only 135 yards total offense.
The Flashes were without their starting QB, and George Bollas, a freshman, could not get the offense
going. He will likely have another chance this year as starting QB Mylik Mitchell was injured last week.
It could be a high scoring game as the Zips defense was hit hard with departures, and has regressed
significantly this year, but the Zips still have a huge advantage offensively over the Flashes.
Pick: Akron -6.5
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209 Troy -13/59 at Idaho
I've been very impressed with the Trojans new head coach, Neal Brown. He was one of the hot OC
and was named the Trojans HC since 2015 season. They have played inspired football this year, losing
a very close game to Clemson, even defeated a very good Southern Miss, and a blow out 52-6 win
over the hapless NM State.
Idaho got a surprise win over UNLV last week, but this team is so inconsistent, and I am not impressed
at all with their HC Paul Petrino. LY the Vandals defeated Troy 16-19, thanks to a +4 in TO's margin.
This year the Trojans can smell a Bowl bid they have not enjoyed since 2010 and a sweet revenge
is almost certain.
Note: The Trojans played without starting QB Brandon Silver in last year's defeat.
Pick: Troy -13
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110 Wash -3.5/44.5 vs Stfd
The Huskies were one of the youngest teams in the country in 2014 and did well in both 2014 and 2015
under new HC (a Boise ST legend) Chris Petersen. The defense last year was great (#9 in Def S&P+)
and the offense was actually better than expected (#37 in Off S&P+) However the young team's
trait was obvious in losing 3 out of 4 one-possession games, and 0-6 vs good teams.
QB Jake Browning in his 2nd year starting has been outstanding but the competitions were not quite
Pac12 level yet. A solid and experienced OL has paved the way for a better running attack but losing
the top receivers does not help the passing game. The defense is still stout but does have big problem
containing running QB. It could be a problem trying to slow down shifty Christian McCaffrey.
With Kevin Hogan left for the NFL the Cardinal's passing attack regresses this year with QB Ryan Burns
under center. The running game is still solid with feature back McCaffrey carrying the load. As usual
the defense is stout but might not be enough to offset the regression on passing attack.
LY the Cardinal got a nice 31-14 home win, but that was with QB Hogan's brilliant performance (71% for
290 yards) and the Huskies were playing without their starting QB Browning. With the Ducks being
down TY, coach Petersen might have overlooked the Wildcats in an OT win last week. The winner of
this game will have a big lead in the race to win PAC12-North.
Pick: Washington -3 (-115) and UNDER 44.5
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Early leans ONLY, very heavy Favorites. Will elaborate on these picks later on.
Inputs/comments are welcome.
110 Wash -2.5 vs Stfd
114 Pitts -1 vs Mars (???)
153 Akron -6.5 at Ken ST
157 Mia -6 at Ga Tech
177 Tenn -3.5 at Georgia
191 A&M -17 at SC
199 Mich ST -7 at Ind
203 Mizzu +13 at LSU
209 Troy -12 at Idaho
219 Nev -4 at Haw (and 1H?)