The whole "sharp vs square" thing WAS a huge deal. It still is but it has evolved considerably.
Sharp ideas from 2010 are common knowledge now. Joe Public is now aware that Joe Public exists
The ugly home dog HAD value. Joe Public is aware of this concept, therefore he uses it himself and Niners +6 had value in 2005, niners +3.5 in 2016 has no value.
The whole "VEGAS" thing. At least 15 clone pundits have said "38-3 last year, but Notre dame is only a 3 pt fave this year, VEGAS KNOWS SOMETHING!!!!!!!"
anybody that forces the word VEGAS into every sentence is clearly a losing bettor.
DVOA was very sharp in 2012. SORRY GUYS, when every idiot on espn rattles off the words DVOA, or sample size, regression, or VEGAS you can be sure the concepts are factored into the price and no longer SHARP
These ideas aren't bad, just outdated. Better to be a year early than a year late. Be Predictive Not reactive.
STOP THINKING LIKE CLONES,
DO WHAT YOU THINK IS RIGHT, DONT SEEK OTHERS APPROVAL
HAVE SOME GUTS , TRUST YOURSELF, AND HAVE NO REGRETS