In the last 3 years, Notre Dame is 0-8 straight up in true road games when they are favored by less than a TD or they are an underdog. Basically, they haven't beaten a legit team on the road since 2012. Texas is the most improved Power 5 team in the country this year (I have them +9.5 over last year's team) and they were embarrassed last year in South Bend. ND lost their most draft picks (6) in the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft since 1994. Phil Steele's +/- power ratings has this game exactly at pick and ESPN's FPI has this game around pick so I'm pretty confident in my numbers. The public will be all over the Irish in this game.