It's time of the year to focus on CFB. I should have the SEC West preview later this week.
Good luck to everyone. Comments are welcome.
Arkansas 2016 Preview
LY Record: 8-5 (including a Bowl Win over Kansas St) and 5-3 SEC
Offense: 35.9 ppg # 27 and 466 Total ypg #29 (197 Rush ypg #34, 268 Pass ypg #32)
Defense: 27.4 ppg # 68 and 392 Total ypg #58 (116 Rush ypg #12, 275 Pass ypg #117)
New coaches: OL, RB, and DB
HC Bret Beliema has done an excellent job in his 3 years with the Hogs. He has improved the
record every year from 5-7 (0-8 SEC) to 7-6 (2-6 SEC) to 8-5 (5-3 SEC) Two achievements
that can't be overlooked are:
- the Hogs were 0-8 on SEC road games in prior 2 years, but went 3-1 last year vs SEC foes
(all 4 SEC teams were ranked, the lone SEC road loss was to the eventual champion Alabama)
- the Hogs went 3-3 last year while getting killed 0-6 in one-possession games in prior two years
The credits for those improvements should go to DC Rob Smith (2014) for turning an awful
defense under DC Ash into a top ten defense in the nation, and to OC Dan Enos last year for
making the most out of a stagnant offense in previous years.
With 5 returning starters (2 OL, 3 WR) the Hogs have only 36% (ranked #117) of their offensive
production return from last year squad. Several huge challenges to overcome as they are fielding
with a first year starter at QB, a non-settled OL (except in 2 positions occupied by All-SEC Tackle
Dan Skipper and C Frank Ragnow,) an unproven running corp., and a good receiving unit.
On the bright side, QB Austin Allen though a first-time starter has spent his last three years with the
Hogs so he should be very familiar with the team, players, coaches, game-atmosphere, playbook…
Austin is believed to be more talented than his brother Brandon (last year QB) with a stronger arm,
better accuracy, more poised, and much more mobile. If the Spring practice is any indication, Austin
appeared to be very confident and a true leader, and it showed in the field.
The OL is arguably the youngest (70% linemen are either sophomores or freshmen) and the least
experienced (combined 47 starts, ranked #93 ) under head coach Bret Beliema in his 4th year with
the Hogs. Though many of the linemen were non-starter but indeed have played many snaps in
their career, and do have the physicals and talent of SEC-caliber linemen.
Losing Alex Collins (three 1000-yards rusher) and Johnathan Williams (2000+ yards In 2 years) will
certainly hurt the running attack. Carries will be split among Kody Walker (2nd leading rusher LY)
who was granted a rare 6th-year, sophomore Rawleigh Williams who is coming off neck injury,
and possibly highly-recruited freshman Devwah Whaley. Assuming OL will do a decent job upfront,
the Hogs should have a decent backfield. RB is the least concern on offense.
Besides the loss of Hunter Henry, every pass-catchers return this season. This unit is the offense's
strength and could be one of the best receiving corps. in the SEC, and of course that still depend on
Allen's ability to deliver the ball to them. There are several potential future NFLs in sr's TE Jeremy
Sprinkle (27 recpt., 389 yards, and 6 TDs last year) and Drew Morgan (both D. Morgan and Sprinkle
are All-SEC 3rd team) Keon Hatcher, deep-threat Dominique Reed, and junior Jared Cornelius.
There are young talented TE's vying for playing time in Will Gragg, Austin Cantrell and C.J. O’Grady.
LY the defense regressed significantly after losing seven defensive players (ranked #101 in term of
returning tackles) with a porous Pass defense as the main culprit. The defense overall was a middle -
of-the-pack unit with a great Rush defense but a horrid Pass defense. However, this year defense
will be the Hogs' strength with 11 of the top 12 tacklers (including 9 starters and 22 of 25 defensive
players) all return. This unit is ranked #1 in the nation with 87 % of tackles return.
Rushing defense will remain as a top ten unit. A poor pass rush (bottom 25% in the nation in terms
of Sacks and TFLs) will improve with a much more experienced DL and deeper LB. The Secondary
will benefit with new coach Paul Rhoads who is considered as one of the best DB's coaches, and
it's returning almost all of the two-deep DBs.
Special Team is nothing special last season, sitting in the middle of the nation in Punt/Kick return
and coverage. The FG kicking was a disaster converting only 9 of 15 attempts with 5 blocked.
The new OL coach has tried different blocking and execution during practices. Kicker Cole Hedlund
(a great Kicker in high school) is likely the starter again and with quicker lift he should be much
more dependable and accurate this season.
The Hogs will face another killer-schedule this season, ranked #7 most difficult in the nation.
Ten opponents were Bowl teams last year, 5 of which were ranked in the AP top 25 including 3 in
the top 10. Hogs do have a favorable schedule with only 4 true road games, and four times playing
either inferior teams or a Bye prior to facing stiff competition, and all 3 SEC road games are winnable.
Even with a rebuild offense, Hogs defense will be dominant and Hogs should at least get another
Bowl bid this year. With a favorable schedule the Hogs should be able to manage between a 6-6
to an 8-4 record. It all depends on the QB's plays, how quickly the OL gels, and a star RB emerges.
The most important piece of the puzzle is at QB. If Austin Allen turns out to be an average or little
above average QB, the Hogs should get to 7 wins, or if the Hogs can get a win (instead of a loss)
with a made FG in the waning seconds in tight games the Hogs should go 7-5.