There should be no surprise at who tops my initial power ratings as the defending National Champs are No. 1 in my preseason ratings heading into 2016. While the Crimson Tide do have some major question marks at QB and RB, they have signed my No. 1 recruiting class in the country for each of the last 5 years. Quite simply, they have the most talented roster and are coached by one of the greatest in the history of the game.
These power ratings of mine are basically a Vegas rating as I would favor Alabama by at least one point over any other team in the country. It's tough making the Crimson Tide an underdog in any situation. They've only been an underdog once in the last 6 years and they hammered Georgia 38-10 (+2.5) in Athens last year in that role. However, the gap is a little closer this year between the Tide and the rest of the country.
Last year's No. 2 team, Clemson could be even better in 2016 thanks to 8 returning starters on offense. They are led by the best QB in the country in DeShaun Watson who became the first player in CFB history to throw for more than 4,000 yards and run for more than 1,000 yards in a season (did play 15 games). The Tigers will have stiff competition in their own division as Florida State is also a Top 5 team with 17 returning starters. Remember the Seminoles get Clemson at home on October 29 (FSU is 11-1 vs Clemson in the last 12 meetings in Tallahassee).
The SEC actually has 3 teams in my Top 6 as LSU is No. 3 thanks to the return of 17 starters including RB Leonard Fournette. Les Miles made a great hire in bringing in DC Dave Aranda who has led some of the best defenses in the country the last 3 years at Wisconsin (No. 1 in the country in that span allowing just 289 ypg). Expectations are also high in Knoxville as the Volunteers have their most talented and experienced team in 15 years. Remember the Volunteers lost four games last year by a total of 17 points blowing a lead in all four.
Oklahoma is the prohibitive favorite in the Big 12 as I have the Sooners power-rated 9 points better than any other team. The Big Ten looks to go back to the old days with Michigan and Ohio State clearly the best two teams but beware of last year's defending conference champs in Michigan State who I still have power-rated at No. 15 (The Spartans host both Michigan and Ohio State and beat both teams on the road last year).
Finally, the Pac-12 looks like it could be one of the most wide-open races in 2016. Defending champ, Stanford tops my initial ratings thanks to the return of all-everything Christian McCaffrey. However, dark horse National Title contender Washington is much improved in year 3 under Chris Petersen (I have the Huskies +9 over last year). In the South, USC and UCLA have very talented rosters (hence their Top 15 ratings), but both teams, specifically USC, also play difficult schedules.
I hope these ratings are just another handicapping tool you can use in prepping for the upcoming season which is now only a month away!
Best of luck,
Brad
Rank |
Team |
Conf |
Power Rating |
1 |
Alabama |
SEC |
95.47 |
2 |
Clemson |
ACC |
94.58 |
3 |
LSU |
SEC |
94.52 |
4 |
Oklahoma |
Big 12 |
93.86 |
5 |
Florida State |
ACC |
93.32 |
6 |
Tennessee |
SEC |
91.94 |
7 |
Michigan |
B10 |
89.95 |
8 |
Ohio State |
B10 |
89.60 |
9 |
Stanford |
P12 |
89.38 |
10 |
Ole Miss |
SEC |
89.31 |
11 |
Washington |
P12 |
88.95 |
12 |
Notre Dame |
Indep |
87.71 |
13 |
USC |
P12 |
86.24 |
14 |
UCLA |
P12 |
86.15 |
15 |
Michigan St |
B10 |
85.53 |
16 |
Georgia |
SEC |
85.49 |
17 |
Louisville |
ACC |
85.44 |
18 |
Oregon |
P12 |
85.42 |
19 |
Baylor |
Big 12 |
84.95 |
20 |
North Carolina |
ACC |
84.79 |
21 |
Florida |
SEC |
84.78 |
22 |
TCU |
Big 12 |
84.76 |
23 |
Arkansas |
SEC |
84.66 |
24 |
Oklahoma St |
Big 12 |
84.60 |
25 |
Miami (FL) |
ACC |
84.34 |
26 |
Texas A&M |
SEC |
84.32 |
27 |
Auburn |
SEC |
83.98 |
28 |
Texas |
Big 12 |
83.42 |
29 |
Iowa |
B10 |
83.32 |
30 |
Nebraska |
B10 |
83.05 |
31 |
Mississippi St |
SEC |
82.58 |
32 |
Pittsburgh |
ACC |
81.81 |
33 |
Wisconsin |
B10 |
81.15 |
34 |
Houston |
AAC |
80.85 |
35 |
Boise State |
MW |
80.80 |
36 |
Penn State |
B10 |
79.97 |
37 |
Utah |
P12 |
79.94 |
38 |
Virginia Tech |
ACC |
79.90 |
39 |
West Virginia |
Big 12 |
79.63 |
40 |
Washington St |
P12 |
79.35 |
41 |
BYU |
Indep |
78.80 |
42 |
South Florida |
AAC |
78.44 |
43 |
Northwestern |
B10 |
77.73 |
44 |
Arizona State |
P12 |
77.69 |
45 |
Arizona |
P12 |
77.21 |
46 |
NC State |
ACC |
77.16 |
47 |
San Diego St |
MW |
76.91 |
48 |
Georgia Tech |
ACC |
76.88 |
49 |
Kansas State |
Big 12 |
76.42 |
50 |
California |
P12 |
76.23 |
51 |
Missouri |
SEC |
75.37 |
52 |
Texas Tech |
Big 12 |
75.33 |
53 |
Minnesota |
B10 |
75.31 |
54 |
Boston Coll |
ACC |
74.78 |
55 |
W. Michigan |
MAC |
74.10 |
56 |
Duke |
ACC |
73.90 |
57 |
Cincinnati |
AAC |
73.40 |
58 |
Temple |
AAC |
73.33 |
59 |
Colorado |
P12 |
73.19 |
60 |
WKU |
CUSA |
73.15 |
61 |
Indiana |
B10 |
73.13 |
62 |
Vanderbilt |
SEC |
73.03 |
63 |
South Carolina |
SEC |
72.43 |
64 |
Virginia |
ACC |
71.94 |
65 |
Air Force |
MW |
71.63 |
66 |
Kentucky |
SEC |
71.47 |
67 |
App St |
SBC |
71.28 |
68 |
Memphis |
AAC |
71.22 |
69 |
Toledo |
MAC |
70.89 |
70 |
Marshall |
CUSA |
70.68 |
71 |
Wake Forest |
ACC |
70.63 |
72 |
N. Illinois |
MAC |
69.75 |
73 |
Iowa State |
Big 12 |
69.65 |
74 |
Syracuse |
ACC |
69.60 |
75 |
Maryland |
B10 |
69.55 |
76 |
Navy |
AAC |
69.54 |
77 |
Ga Southern |
SBC |
69.18 |
78 |
Illinois |
B10 |
68.89 |
79 |
C. Michigan |
MAC |
68.68 |
80 |
Arkansas St |
SBC |
68.51 |
81 |
Connecticut |
AAC |
68.10 |
82 |
Southern Miss |
CUSA |
68.01 |
83 |
Rutgers |
B10 |
67.62 |
84 |
Bowling Green |
MAC |
67.50 |
85 |
Purdue |
B10 |
67.38 |
86 |
Utah State |
MW |
67.35 |
87 |
Middle Tenn |
CUSA |
66.73 |
88 |
Oregon State |
P12 |
65.90 |
89 |
Tulsa |
AAC |
65.57 |
90 |
Nevada |
MW |
64.78 |
91 |
San Jose St |
MW |
64.58 |
92 |
Louisiana Tech |
CUSA |
64.41 |
93 |
New Mexico |
MW |
64.27 |
94 |
East Carolina |
AAC |
63.87 |
95 |
Ohio |
MAC |
63.48 |
96 |
Colorado State |
MW |
62.56 |
97 |
SMU |
AAC |
61.02 |
98 |
Akron |
MAC |
60.51 |
99 |
Troy |
SBC |
60.39 |
100 |
Florida Atlantic |
CUSA |
60.35 |
101 |
Fresno State |
MW |
59.79 |
102 |
UCF |
AAC |
59.61 |
103 |
Kansas |
Big 12 |
59.57 |
104 |
Kent State |
MAC |
59.49 |
105 |
UL-Lafayette |
SBC |
59.37 |
106 |
Army |
Indep |
58.58 |
107 |
UNLV |
MW |
58.43 |
108 |
Old Dominion |
CUSA |
58.30 |
109 |
Rice |
CUSA |
58.03 |
110 |
Wyoming |
MW |
57.66 |
111 |
Miami (OH) |
MAC |
57.37 |
112 |
Buffalo |
MAC |
57.05 |
113 |
FIU |
CUSA |
56.82 |
114 |
Georgia State |
SBC |
56.78 |
115 |
Ball State |
MAC |
56.54 |
116 |
UTEP |
CUSA |
55.83 |
117 |
Idaho |
SBC |
54.86 |
118 |
Hawaii |
MW |
54.43 |
119 |
Tulane |
AAC |
53.78 |
120 |
S. Alabama |
SBC |
53.55 |
121 |
E. Michigan |
MAC |
53.32 |
122 |
UTSA |
CUSA |
52.78 |
123 |
New Mexico St |
SBC |
51.91 |
124 |
Charlotte |
CUSA |
51.45 |
125 |
Massachusetts |
Indep |
50.16 |
126 |
North Texas |
CUSA |
49.66 |
127 |
Texas State |
SBC |
49.17 |
128 |
ULM |
SBC |
48.86 |