NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
ALABAMA vs. CLEMSON
Take: UNDER 50.5
I can’t make heads or tails out of the side on this game. I think the spread is right on the button. But I have an opinion on how I believe this game will unfold, and can make a case for this being a reasonably low scoring game.
I can see Alabama having some trouble with the Clemson spread. The Tide have lost six games over the last four seasons, and all of those were against teams that utilized the spread. Saban often goes nickel against 11 personnel, and that could create some lanes for Clemson QB Watson and RB Gallman. But the Tigers still have matchup issues, as their OL is their least powerful aspect, and that Alabama defensive front is the best I’ve ever seen in college football. So I can see Clemson getting some yards in this game, but finishing off drives is likely a problem, and that means FG’s instead of TD’s.
There’s no way Jake Coker duplicates last week’s brilliant performance against Michigan State. The Spartans basically went all-in to stop Derrick Henry, and the strategy backfired as Coker tore apart their secondary. Clemson is certain to try and mix things up with varied fronts and zone defense. I definitely see Henry having a significantly better game here than he did a week ago. The Tigers have a really good secondary and as I would be shocked to see Swinney all-out to stop the run, I don’t anticipate Coker throwing nearly as much as he did last week. I also think Saban will be happy to try and turn this into a trench slugfest that features Henry and emphasizes ball control.
Let’s not discount the punters here, either. Clemson has been terrific at limiting substantial returns and the Bama kid is superb at knocking down kicks inside the opponent 20. That means that barring turnovers that make for short fields, this is going to be about long drives and hopefully more threes than sevens.
The best numbers on this total have come and gone. But as I made the number 47, I can still live with playing the game at the current number of 50.5. I rarely go the O/U route, but I will here with a play on the Under.