If Clemson is going to have a puncher's chance tonight, they Deshaun Watson will have to have the game of his life. Against the Alabama defense, that will really tough to do.
I think some folks are heavily mistaking Alabama for a big but slow team; I respectfully disagree. Alabama is big up front but it is nearly impossible to run sideline-to-sideline against them given the speed they have at linebacker. (See what Alabama did against LSU if you want an idea how good their run-stopping defense is.)
That said, I'm not worried at all what Clemson will do against Alabama on the ground. However, Alabama has been susceptible to big plays against their secondary. If Alabama can contain Watson from breaking free and making big plays on the run, this game will be a blowout.
The history of Alabama this year is kind to them, too, because:
* Saban is 3-0 in championship games
* Saban is probably good as any coach at making halftime adjustments
* They have proven they can shut down teams, even against teams that can score.
Given the above, I still haven't talked about Alabama's offense. I think they have the better O-line, and their QB can make big play after big play if Alabama wasn't so damn good running the ball. Also, they have playmakers at ALL the skill positions.
Speaking of playmakers: Alabama's depth is MUCH better than Clemson; they bring wave after wave of players who could start for many other Div-I teams, and possibly start for Clemson. I'm not sure many Clemson STARTERS would start for this year's Alabama's team.
One factor not talked about much: quality of competition. Alabama has played a pretty tough schedule; Clemson - not so much (and playing against a Okie team that loses bowl game after bowl game is not upper-tier competition). Clemson reminds me of the Redskins: the hot team going into the playoffs, only to be exposed when the big boys show up.
If this line was at Alabama -7.5, I can see why people would make the case Clemson would cover (since Alabama slows the game down tremendously when they have the lead in the 4th), but at -6.5, give me the touchdown ALL day.
PREDICTION #1: ALABAMA -6.5 OVER CLEMSON **BIG BET**
25-31 (Record includes numerous prop bets I missed out on and parlays (which I count as one win or a loss). Yea, not the greatest year. Fade away if you must, but at least my record is honest. But hey - January has been pretty good so far!)