Winner on the free play as the Cubs and Cardinals stayed Under the number. I’ll go with some substantial chalk today for my second college football comp of the week.
387 BOISE STATE @ 388 COLORADO STATE
Take: BOISE STATE -15.5
I’ve been playing far more underdogs than favorites so far this season, but I’ll be going the chalk route in this game. I really like what I’m seeing from Boise State and my assessment is that if they’re on their game this afternoon at Colorado State, there might not be much the Rams can do about it.
Boise opened the season by nearly giving a win away against Washington and then getting burned late at BYU. The Broncos got ultra-conservative with the lead against the Huskies and it nearly cost them as UW missed a late field goal that could have forced overtime. Boise had a 24-14 final stanza lead at BYU and failed to hold that advantage, resulting in what might well end up being their only loss this season.
Lesson learned? Yeah, I think so. Boise State has been merciless in obliterating three straight opponents by a combined 163-14. Crushing hapless Idaho State was expected. But Boise actually closed as the dog at Virginia and they covered the spread by more than 30 last week against Hawaii.
The story here is twofold. One is the emergence of QB Brett Rypien. 51/69, 718 yards, six TD’s, no picks tells the story in numbers. The eye test discloses that this kid is fearless and playing with great confidence. The other big story for the Broncos is the defense. They’re completely stuffing opposing running games. These numbers are absurdly good, and I believe they really come into play today.
Colorado State had a couple of tough early losses against Colorado and Minnesota. Considering that the Rams figured to be down this season with some key personnel losses as well as the departure of head coach Jim McElwain, CSU was a bit of a pleasant surprise to start the season. But the last two weeks have not been so good. The Rams managed to escape UTSA with a narrow win but they really weren’t solid in that game, and they got worse last week at Utah State.
The Rams really need to run the football to be successful.QB Nick Stevens is mostly a game manager right now. He’s okay if CSU is staying ahead of the chains, but I don’t see him as a guy who can take over a game just yet. That’s a key here as unless something radically different takes place, CSU isn’t going to have success carrying the football. Stevens has one of the top targets in all of college football in Rahshard Higgins, but he’s guaranteed to get lots of special attention from the Boise defense.
Stevens is likely to have to put together his best game for Colorado State to have a chance at the upset here. If that happens, I guess I’m in for a long sweat. But based on what CSU needs to do to have a realistic chance and based on what the Broncos do best defensively, that is not supposed to happen. As for the rest, I have no reason to think Rypien suddenly throws in a clunker and I really like the killer instinct I’ve seen recently from the Broncos. They do have a big game coming up as the Broncos visit Utah State next Friday. But I’ll trust the road team to keep the roll intact here and I’m laying the lumber with Boise State.
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3 CFB Best Bets package includes 2 early games.
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