Fezzik has been offering #402 Rutgers for sale as an early 3* Big 10 Game of the Year premium pick. At the time the pick was made, Rutgers was +15.
Since then, the spread has moved to +13.5. That’s great news for those who have already purchased and bet the pick. The movement in the number is an encouraging sign that the betting market agrees that Rutgers is the right side.
But, at the current betting market number, the pick no longer offers sufficient value to sell. So this afternoon Pregame stopped offering the pick for sale.
It’s important to remember that the difference between a good bet and a coin flip is only a few points . . . which means a significant line movement often turns a good bet into a mediocre bet.
Pregame.com has built our business on providing value to our customers. Not selling this pick means less pick sales – but, it’s our belief that both our customers and the company will benefit in the long run as a result of our focus on providing value.
Keep in mind that once a Pro makes a pick, the pick is official no matter what. Rutgers will be graded at the number it was released at. Fezzik still likes the pick at that number. You may be tempted to make this bet now at the current price, figuring it’s a premium pick you are getting for free. PLEASE DON’T FORGET, professionals who live in big houses financed by their winnings are separated from long-term losers by only a few points per game. Those points are why this pick no longer offers sufficient value to sell.
Occasionally, a pick we stop selling because of a line move will later experience another line move in the opposite direction (moving back toward the original number the pick was released at). Under such circumstances, the pick would then likely offer value similar to the value offered at the time of the original release (yep, in such cases that means you get a premium level pick free!). Even in such cases of renewed value, since this public announcement has been made, the pick will not be again sold.
Mathematically, the closer you get to gametime, the more accurate the betting market becomes. When Pros offer games early for sale, it gives customers a chance to purchase early and to bet the pick into the softer market – allowing you to lock in your price and beat the line moves similar to today’s line move.