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Shaker's Shorts: Market Timing

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Thread Starter Shaker's Shorts: Market Timing
Greg Shaker
Joined: 05/30/2007
Posts: 12781
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A few years ago Pregame offered a Platform for us to do Sports Betting Blogs but for some reason that is not an option now, or not a good one since they are not displayed on the Forum for Wide Readership. During that time I did quite a few and those are still displayed on my Home Page. I have decided to do more of the same this year and these too will have links. Last week we talked about Trusting Your Numbers and this week goes even further. When to get those "Numbers" and how to get the most out of your betting. 

Tuesday is always an important day for me during College Football Season because it's when 'Usually" Lines Mature including CFB Totals. It is the time to put out Client Plays and make Larger Bets, along with Making Notes on games close to the Number that I would play with movement. But let's go deeper into what I do and that all begins Sunday.

There is no doubt that Oddsmakers struggle to put out Good Numbers. They struggle every week with this and the fact is sometimes they are WAY OFF WHAT NUMBERS SHOULD BE. It is a daunting task for them and much tougher these days than in the past with not only more FBS Teams, but more Totals. Back in the Day there was no such thing as Totals + many fewer teams. Did they make mistakes back then? Of course they did, but generally not as off the right number as they do now..

So you can guarantee that I will be right there on Sunday as Lines are released on BOL and the Cris and others. How many games do I grab? Lot's. It certainly varies from week to week but it's plenty. So what am I doing? I am not just betting (At Low Limits) games off my number. I am grabbing games that I know are going to be Off the Betting Public's Number. The Premise is simple. Get the Number that's WRONG. Come back later in the week and either Reverse Bet for a Middle or let it ride. Most often I will favor one side more than the other. Good Example this past week: I Grab Colorado +10.5 or 11. (Can't remember which line) on Sunday at a low $200 Limit on 2 different Sites. Then I was able to get Oregon -7 later in the week but played $350 on that since my personal number was -9.5 there. Obviously hoping for an Oregon Win by 8 to 10. That didn't happen but does often with that kind of spread. While Betting Less Money it's still possible to increase Bankroll by a significant amount with volume..

The above is why it's so important for Bettors to create their own Betting Line (Trusting Your Numbers) and firing early. Even it you can't do that with all FBS Teams, you might can with Teams/Conferences you know. Try it this week. It's fun for sure. And I promise it's profitable if you have a good grip on line movement. 

That however is only a small part about how important Market Timing is. Case in Point Notre Dame/Clemson. I personally grabbed the Tigers early in the week because it was obvious to me that this game represented everything that Handicappers love to bet. A Home Motivated Dog/Even playing 1st Time Hostile Environment Young QB. Surely the line would move up and it did. But here is something that is so important to know. Stamp this one on your Forehead.

BETTING EARLY IN THE WEEK IS NOT ALWAYS THE RIGHT THING TO DO

We can actually use the same example as above ND/Clemson. Notre Dame Backers would have been better served to wait. A few things irritate me. One of those is this statement (In Varying Contexts) that I have heard a lot. "It's Sunday Morning and all of the Good Betting Numbers are Gone." Or "If you're Betting Saturday and Sunday Morning you can't win because all of the Good Lines have been taken." 

What??????

I Beg your Pardon. These types of statements come from people that are Steam Riders. People that believe that if everyone else is betting one side then that side must be right. VEGAS. BIG BUILDINGS. Numbers are numbers and if you Trust Your Numbers, some of those will be hit in the latter stages of the Betting Cycle. They do for me a lot. If you are a Follower and not a Leader, why the Hell are you reading this anyway? Time to Stamp that Head again..

THE SHARPS (WHOEVER THEY ARE) DON'T KNOW EVERYTHING!!

The Bottom Line here is that College and Pro Football have a Betting Cycle. Make your Numbers (Unbiased) and wait to get them or play early when you already do have what you want. By getting the Best or near Best Number you will increase your win percentage significantly. Perhaps 3% to 5% or even more. Some will say that's not worth it but that's a Blog for another day...

Stay tuned as I will be having 4 to 5 plays this week in this thread and the 1st could come pretty soon..

177-129 Forum Alternative Plays Record.

As usual this week I will College and Professional Football Plays, many of the Alternative Nature, ie Halftimes 1st and 2nd, Team Totals, etc. Nice week last week with these and let's hope for more of the same..

Follow Greg Shaker on Twitter: GregShaker

TRUST YOUR NUMBERS

MARKET TIMING

WHAT IS SHARP MONEY?

"If you are the Smartest Person in the Room, you are in the Wrong Room."

Greg Shaker
Joined: 05/30/2007
Posts: 12781
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

Thought I might have a play today but it looks like books are going to hold off until tomorrow for 1st Half lines. So we shall wait.

Follow Greg Shaker on Twitter: GregShaker

TRUST YOUR NUMBERS

MARKET TIMING

WHAT IS SHARP MONEY?

"If you are the Smartest Person in the Room, you are in the Wrong Room."

Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
Posts: 17302
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Greg Shaker

So you can guarantee that I will be right there on Sunday as Lines are released on BOL and the Cris and others. How many games do I grab? Lot's. It certainly varies from week to week but it's plenty. So what am I doing? I am not just betting (At Low Limits) games off my number. I am grabbing games that I know are going to be Off the Betting Public's Number. The Premise is simple. Get the Number that's WRONG. Come back later in the week and either Reverse Bet for a Middle or let it ride. Most often I will favor one side more than the other. Good Example this past week: I Grab Colorado +10.5 or 11. (Can't remember which line) on Sunday at a low $200 Limit on 2 different Sites. Then I was able to get Oregon -7 later in the week but played $350 on that since my personal number was -9.5 there. Obviously hoping for an Oregon Win by 8 to 10. That didn't happen but does often with that kind of spread. While Betting Less Money it's still possible to increase Bankroll by a significant amount with volume..

I would love to see a platform that was easy for this - although the one we have IS - it could look ugly with 30 bets in a day :) It would, however, give the marble counters something more to do. 

Dave's Home Page w/Marble Count and Daily Message

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From Deadspin:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind. 

"I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!"

Greg Shaker
Joined: 05/30/2007
Posts: 12781
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

Dave Essler

Greg Shaker

So you can guarantee that I will be right there on Sunday as Lines are released on BOL and the Cris and others. How many games do I grab? Lot's. It certainly varies from week to week but it's plenty. So what am I doing? I am not just betting (At Low Limits) games off my number. I am grabbing games that I know are going to be Off the Betting Public's Number. The Premise is simple. Get the Number that's WRONG. Come back later in the week and either Reverse Bet for a Middle or let it ride. Most often I will favor one side more than the other. Good Example this past week: I Grab Colorado +10.5 or 11. (Can't remember which line) on Sunday at a low $200 Limit on 2 different Sites. Then I was able to get Oregon -7 later in the week but played $350 on that since my personal number was -9.5 there. Obviously hoping for an Oregon Win by 8 to 10. That didn't happen but does often with that kind of spread. While Betting Less Money it's still possible to increase Bankroll by a significant amount with volume..

I would love to see a platform that was easy for this - although the one we have IS - it could look ugly with 30 bets in a day :) It would, however, give the marble counters something more to do. 

Ha. Pretty sure most Pick Buyers aren't ready for that Dave. I'd be a nervous wreck! Hard enough getting the numbers myself let alone making sure others do. I don't move like I used to..

Follow Greg Shaker on Twitter: GregShaker

TRUST YOUR NUMBERS

MARKET TIMING

WHAT IS SHARP MONEY?

"If you are the Smartest Person in the Room, you are in the Wrong Room."

Greg Shaker
Joined: 05/30/2007
Posts: 12781
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

#456 Baltimore Ravens/Cleveland Browns UNDER 22 1st Half (Wynn) Neither of teams have a Quarterback, they just a Guy who plays one on TV. The Ravens don't have any decent receivers (Smith/Campanaro Out) making the Trip. But wait, Cleveland's Receivers are awful too. This sounds like an Info-Commercial but it's really a Nice play. Ugly game Sunday.

Follow Greg Shaker on Twitter: GregShaker

TRUST YOUR NUMBERS

MARKET TIMING

WHAT IS SHARP MONEY?

"If you are the Smartest Person in the Room, you are in the Wrong Room."

Greg Shaker
Joined: 05/30/2007
Posts: 12781
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

Portion of an article I saw today. Written by Dave McIntire. 

It also comes down to the bets themselves. Because betting is a live market not every bet on a team is the same. This past weekend Notre Dame versus Clemson opened at around a Pick’em but by kickoff Clemson was favored by three. A sharp bettor would get in on Clemson early or wait and bet on Notre Dame late (or maybe even both). A square bettor would just look at the name and place the wager no matter the spread. Does a point here and there really matter? Well, when Clemson snuffed out a two-point conversion in the final seconds to hold on for a 24-22 win, it made all the difference in the world.

Follow Greg Shaker on Twitter: GregShaker

TRUST YOUR NUMBERS

MARKET TIMING

WHAT IS SHARP MONEY?

"If you are the Smartest Person in the Room, you are in the Wrong Room."

square0805
Joined: 10/06/2015
Posts: 74
College Recruit
Not Ranked

Great info Greg, this is exactly the type of information I personally need to keep coming across. I am pretty new to the betting world, and have been doing exactly what I shouldn't be in regards of getting the best number. My basic strategy has been wrong in so many ways, I've just come across a great deal of luck and been able to win an unusually high rate that I'm sure wont continue. I make a play based on information that is already available to everyone and factored in the line already, only when I disagree with the book's line versus my own is when I play (more than likely the hours before the game starts) and based on however much I perceive to have an advantage determines how much I play for the game ($100, $200, or $300). I will definitely be switching up my approach to try and get the best number possible in my plays and putting in a lot more effort now that I'm aware to so many things that I was not before.

Also quick question:

With a bankroll of around $2,000 or so, what would your approach be as far as bankroll management? I've researched this topic heavily, and come across tons of different answers, would love to hear your take.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CFB124075.00770.00
NBA44150.00-40.00
NFL52071.43265.00
Greg Shaker
Joined: 05/30/2007
Posts: 12781
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

I actually wrote a Blog About that Square but to add to the below. I DO NOT ever recommend anyone to play more that 50% more on one play over another another. In other words you can make plays for $100 and $150 or $200 and $300, but never $100 or $300. The Percentages just don't support one play being 3 TIMES BETTER than another one...Here's the link..

Money Management

Follow Greg Shaker on Twitter: GregShaker

TRUST YOUR NUMBERS

MARKET TIMING

WHAT IS SHARP MONEY?

"If you are the Smartest Person in the Room, you are in the Wrong Room."

square0805
Joined: 10/06/2015
Posts: 74
College Recruit
Not Ranked

Great! Reading now thank you.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CFB124075.00770.00
NBA44150.00-40.00
NFL52071.43265.00
Greg Shaker
Joined: 05/30/2007
Posts: 12781
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

Weekend Twitter Play #2: #387 Boise State/Colorado State OVER 30 1st Half Play..

Follow Greg Shaker on Twitter: GregShaker

TRUST YOUR NUMBERS

MARKET TIMING

WHAT IS SHARP MONEY?

"If you are the Smartest Person in the Room, you are in the Wrong Room."

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