Hi Everyone,
occasionally I will post my picks on here. Some of you may remember me from the college basketball season, I tend to focus more on the lessor known conferences, such as the Sun Belt, C-USA and MW. I tend to find these conferences offer greater value as they are not on the radar screens of recreational and pro investors. In college basketball, the approach works quite well.
So let's get started.
Appalachian State at Old Dominion - Saturday September 26, 2015, 3:30pm
Investment Recommendation: Appalachian State -7
Investment Analysis:
It will be rainy and windy in Norfolk this afternoon and that plays right into ASU game-style, ground and pound.
ASU returns 20 starters from last year's squad, including QB Taylor Lamb (61.4%, 2381 yds, 17TDs, and 9 ints in addition to running for another 483 yards, 6.3 ypc). Lamb's top WRs and TE return from LY, including 5-10 sr. Simms McElfresh (42 recs. & 5 TDs) and 6-2 sr. Malachi Jones (36 recs., 16.3 ypr). All members of the veteran WR corps are expecting improved numbers in 2015 as Lamb advances along the QB experience curve. Also Lamb's ability to run will be significant today, in the rain, it allows ASU to potentially disguise run plays in a passing formation, this will keep the ODU defense out of sync.
The driving force behind last season’s 36 ppg was the App State rushing attack, led by 5-10, 200 junior Marcus Cox (1415 YR, 5.5 ypc). In fact, all of LY’s top three RBs return, as soph Terrance Upshaw (573) and 5-8 senior Ricky Fergerson (292) helped the trio combine for a lofty 2290 yards on the ground in 2014. And no relief is in sight for opponents, as HC Satterfield says redshirt freshmen Jalin Moore & Josh Boyd as now ready to contribute as well. ASU can cycle its running backs all afternoon - RB depth vs. DL depth for ODU will be theme here as you read going forward (lots of youth on that ODU line and lots of snaps played last week).
Last year’s OL began to jell nicely near midseason, and four of the five return, led by senior C Jesse Chapman, on the Rimington watch list. The unit allowed only 11 sacks in 2014, and the expected lone new member of the groups is expected to be 6-6, 290 LT Davante Harris, a converted DLman who had five starts last season.
Defensively, ASU number's didn't look so great last year, the unit was ripped for 30 or more points five times, and yielded 27.3 for the season. However, we must look at last season as two halves because the defensively style changed. HC Satterfield abandoned a bend-but-don’t-break style in the 2nd half and went for more of an attack mode. App State recorded only six sacks in its first six games of 2014, but then collected 22 in the last six after becoming more aggressive. The defense is led by 6-4, 275 sr. DE Ronald Blair (six sacks), now an NFL prospect, and 6-2, 235 soph DE Nathaniel Norwood, who had 3½. The strength of App State’s 3-4 is its pair of 235-pound ILBs, the appropriately-named sr. John Law (top tackler with 91 LY) and promising soph Eric Boggs (43 Ts), who began tapping his considerable potential as his freshman playing time increased.
All-Sun Belt senior safety Doug Middleton (4 ints. LY) returns to anchor ASU secondary, where the main concern is at CB, a position of potential early vulnerability. However, HC Satterfield likes the talent of 6-0 soph Brandon Pinckney (special teams LY), while a proven ball thief in juco Mondo Williams (8 picks LY in the JC ranks) will also compete for a starting spot. But the secondary might not be exploited today due to the rain and wind, which is expected to reach 25mph moreover, Freshman ODU QB Bentley doesn't yet have the experience nor the grasp of the playbook to air it out, certainly not in these windy and wet conditions.
With QB Heinecke departed and now in the Minnesota Vikings camp this summer, the Monarchs are at risk of an offensive drop-off. RS frosh Shuler Bentley who will try to fill Heinecke’s shoes this fall. Moreover, the offense also lost top WR Antonio Vaughan (spending this summer in the NFL Jaguars camp), ODU has also lost tight ends Melvin Vaughn and Adam Swann to injuries. They were so thin at the TE position that they moved away from a tight-end oriented offense. Not a good thing when trying to bring in a new QB.
In its first three games this season, ODU has looked to run first and control the clock, ODU did not throw a pass on its first possession against Norfolk State. QB Bentley, had four dropped passess against Norfolk State, he also overthrew some receivers. On the season Bentley is 41-77 (53%) so accuracy is a bit of concern here. when he stepped up in-class last week (first two weeks vs. EMU and Norfolk State) he was 11-23, 151yds, 70 of those yards came on a HB screen.
If ODU expects to run the ball, that might be trouble against an ASU defense that only gives up 88 per game and 2.4 ypc on the ground and that includes only 140 to Clemson (3.2 ypc). Compounding the problem for ODU is that back-up RB Jeremy Cox is listed as ? with a hamstring injury and many reports out of ODU state that starting RB Lawry is already over-worked.
HC Satterfield even told reporters that viewing last year's tape of ODU was ineffective in studying for this team (offensively) because their are world's apart. read what you think from that - but I see it as - a complete drop-off from last squad's 6-6 squad.
Defensively, ODU allowed a whopping 38 ppg a year ago and returns only four starters from that overworked platoon. Reinforcements are likely to come from the juco ranks. The platoon also had a 52% failure rate on third downs a year ago, not a nice stat when facing a run-first ASU team. The ODU defense through three games this season is giving up 204 yds on the ground per game and 5.0 ypc and that's only been against, EMU, Norfolk State and NC State. ASU must be licking their chops here.
We must also note that this ODU defense was on the field last week @NC State for 40 minutes and 70 snaps. Those legs must be tired. With ASU using a ground and pound running game expect this ODU defense to get gassed as this game progresses. Also note, how young that ODU defensive line defense is, at DE, Tim Ward is a freshman, Coward is a Junior NT, however, his two back-ups Tyson and Toal are both redshirt freshman, DT Romimi is a Sophomore, his backups Fox, Londree and Wentz are all freshman. Ximines plays at the STUD position but he's a red-shirt freshman, This inexperience does no good for ODU versus a seasoned ASU squad and likely explains the problems ODU is having stopping the run.
One thing we like about this ASU is their ability to capitalize in the red zone; ASU in the red zone last 8 eights (Oct 18, 2014 - Sept 12, 2015) 33-38 (87%) in the redzone, 29 TDs and 4 FGs. this team can convert its opportunities into points, combine that with the horrible 3rd defense of ODU and that's got me thinking. So far this season, ASU appears to be continuing is red zone success. through its first two games, ASU is 6-7 (86%) in the redzone, 5 of those 6 scores, TDs.
ASU lost 41-10 at Clemson back on Sept 12th, and a number of ASU players have publicly stated that this is a statement game for them as they play up to a Conference USA opponent. This is a big thing for a former FCS school and now FBS Sun Belt team. ASU was a much better FCS school and ODU, both made the climb back in 2013, however, ODU got the jump to CUSA while ASU made to Sun Belt, there's a big difference in respect between the conferences, that's another reason why ASU players see this as a statement game.
ODU might be 2-1 but those two victories come with questions marks: 1) those opponents are a combined 1-5; 2) ODU failed to meet market expectations in those two wins, failing to meet market expectations by 10 points. Moreover, ODU is just 1-8 vs. the spread in their last 9 at home.
ASU will pound the ball all day here in wet and sloppy conditions and expect ODU to make some mistakes offensively. ASU will tire out that ODU defense and expect this one to open up in the 2nd half.
That said our investment is in Appalachian State -7