Looking at this year's Alabama team and where the value lies from a betting standpoint, I will be looking at playing Alabama UNDER the TOTAL early and often. The losses on offense are huge as they lost 76% of their total offense from last year, which is the biggest loss of all FBS teams. I think it will take a while for Coker to get in sync with his receivers and the offensive line is not as strong either after losing two guys to the Draft. I think early on, the Tide will play a conservative game which will run more time off the clock. The defense is going to be stout as always and will keep the scores low. I'll also add that the Tide has the best punter in the nation and he can pin opponents inside the 20 and force more of a field position game, which in turn takes more time off the clock.
Alabama opens the season vs. a Wisconsin team that has a new head coach and offensive coordinator. The Badgers lost Melvin Gordon (2587 rush yards/29 TD's) and the Badgers offense will not be clicking yet. Look for a game with a final score in the 24-10 range for an EASY UNDER. Also note that Alabama did not score over 20 points last season vs. Ole Miss, LSU, or Arkansas as the UNDER went 3-0. This season, I will call for more low scoring games vs. these three teams. Ole Miss has one of the nation's best defensive lines, Arkansas improved their defense by 90 yards last season, LSU only gave up 17.5 ppg in 2014, and I think this number drops even lower this season.
Brandon's Situational Power Play: UL-Monroe @ Alabama (9/26)
This is a trap game for Alabama as they will be coming off a big revenge game vs. Ole Miss, then have a road game at Georgia on deck. The play on this game will be the UNDER. Monroe's offense took some major losses in the offseason and appear to have an undersized offensive line as well. Monroe averaged only 10 ppg last year vs. 3 SEC teams, including a 31-0 loss at LSU. They won't be able to score here either vs. a stingy Tide defense. Alabama will call a conservative game, probably come out the gate a bit flat after the physical game with Ole Miss, and will call the troops off early to get ready for Georgia. I think we see a low scoring game with a final score in the 27-3 range. Play on: Alabama/ UL-Monroe UNDER the TOTAL
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