Seems to be an unpopular pick but I'm going to make the case for why I think Rice will win the game.
I'm first going to break down a few key stats. These are not season averages, but in game stats. In the last 10 seasons (2004-present), a team who has;
Out rushed their opponent has won 77% of the time and covered the spread 65.5% of the time.
Had a higher 3rd down conversion percentage has won 64.5% of the time and covered 60.6% of the time.
Had less turnovers than their opponent has won 73.7% of the time and covered 71% of the time.
These stats have been very significant historically in winning college football games. So what does it all mean? Glad you asked...
Fresno St is averaging 183.9 rushing yards per game compared to Rice who averages 170.3. Advantage (small) Fresno
Fresno converts on 3rd down 37.8% of the time. Rice converts 46.3% of the time. Advantage Rice
Fresno is allowing 206.9 rushing yards per game. Rice is allowing 151.8. Advantage (big) Rice
While Fresno is averaging more rushing yards per game it is a slight advantage at 13.6 yards. The key stat here is the run defense. Rice is 55.1 yards per game better at stopping the run. That is significant.
I'll take it one step further; Fresno's rushing yards per game (183.9) plus Rice's rushing yards allowed per game (151.8) divided by two = 167.85
Rice's rushing yards per game (170.3) plus Fresno's rushing defense (206.9) divided by two = 188.6
That gives Rice a shade over 20 yards advantage rushing the ball in this game and the advantage in every key stat I mentioned at the top of the post. But wait, what about turnovers?
Rice's turnover margin per game is +0.5. Fresno's is -0.6. Advantage Rice
The defense rests, your honor.
Of course there are many other factors; motivation, travel time/distance, strength of opponents, injuries, etc. So if Fresno wins by 20 don't be too upset. Good luck.