11/25/14 This weeks college football market watch. Five games to consider when wagering this Thanksgiving day weekend.
By: Brandon Richard
Here our some insights and thoughts about the market and why it may have moved and some general useful information on the current matchup.
323 Western Kentucky Openers were set at -21.5 with Marshall listed as the favorite. One theory that I like is to go against teams late in the season that have good ATS results. Marshall is 8-3 ATS so I firmly believe it will be quite expensive with that side moving forward. Oddsmakers adjust and add extra points to situations like this. The line slowly went up to -23 where it stands now. The Thundering Herd are a solid team and are 11-0 but, lets not discount the Hilltoppers. They have won three and a row and have a fully capable senior QB in Brandon Doughty who has a remarkable 36 TD passes. I’ll be taking the points with WKU and I think they can stay within the number because of all the firepower on offense.
346 Ohio State Game opened Buckeyes -20 and didn’t see much movement. Some thought the home team would run over Indiana last week, but Ohio State found themselves in a dogfight. The number was expensive last week because the playoff committee basically said that teams like OSU, Baylor, and TCU will need style points to move into the top four. The number sits at -21 right now and I would lean towards Ohio State. Michigan just wants this disastrous season to end so they can fire Brady Hooke and move forward. Ohio State doesn’t have many more chances and I think this is a good spot for them and they will surely run up the score if they can. I laid -20 with the home team and anything under 3 tads or less I think is fine.
371 Cincinnati This contest was listed at -3 when it opened in Las Vegas at CG Tech with the road team Bearcats the favorite. This is an interesting game because Cincinnati has been a very hot commodity as of late winning and covering 5 in a row. The sharps quickly took the Bearcats and it looks like many have jumped on that side as well. You’ll have to play -7 now if you like that side. We spoke of Temple a few weeks back and the metrics have never added up with them especially as of late. A lot of pros have faded them in the past weeks. I would lean towards Tommy Tuberville’s squad if you can get them minus a TD or less. I won’t be playing them because the value is gone. I don’t like taking bad numbers and I wouldn’t recommend it either. Why lay -7 when you could of had -3, but I still think the Bearcats find a way and get the job done.
398 Oregon State The Civil war game and we’ll be looking towards the home team here. It’s a rivalry game and a revenge spot for the Beavers. The game opened Ducks -19 and not much movement yet. OSU head coach Mike Riley is about ten years behind the game and I consider him a way below average head coach. It’s very stressful backing and watching his teams play. He runs a 90’s pro style offense and makes poor decisions on game management. With all that being said the spot calls for taking the points with Oregon State anyways. It’s hard to predict where this number will go. Plus 21 is what we hope so we can take the three TD’s, but it may go to 17ish as well. I’m going to wait and see on this one. All the pressure will be on Oregon with playoff dreams in mind and we’ll gladly take all those extra points.
403 Florida FSU opened -10 and as usual the game got bet down right away. The pros took the 10, the 9, the 8 and now we sit at 7.5. I also grabbed plus 10 last Sunday with Florida. I have been on FSU a few times and against them when they lay a big number and been quit successful with this unreliable team. (Ok I gave my victory speech). I feel much better now :-) Will Muschamp is a goner so I fully expect the relaxed Gators to pull of the outright upset here. FSU has been playing with fire the whole season and this is the week I think it finally catches up to them. Florida has every bit as good as talent as FSU and most of these kids have played against each other in high school and know each other. Late in the season I like to go against the top teams because they have all the pressure on them. The underdogs usually bring extra added motivation and will be ready to play plus Florida got spanked last year by the Seminoles so we have revenge working in our favor as well.
May fortune be on your side when wagering this week. Happy Thanksgiving!
You can follow Brandon on twitter @BrandonRichard1