11/22 12:30 PM CF (179) LOUISVILLE at (180) NOTRE DAME
FREE PICK: (179) LOUISVILLE +4
The best time I ever had at a college football game was on my one and only visit to South Bend, Indiana. This was back in the 1970’s, and a good friend of mine back in Rhode Island was a graduate of the school. He took annual pilgrimages back to Notre Dame for a football game, and he decided to invite me this one year.
Understand that weekends were crazy for me as I was running a good sized shop back in those days and my initial response was thanks, but no thanks. But my friend was pretty insistent, and almost demanded that I accompany him to South Bend as it would be a phenomenal experience.
I finally gave in, assigned the duties of running the book to one of my more trusted associates, and off we went to Notre Dame. One of the better decisions I’ve ever made, actually. I had no allegiance to the school, and in fact on most football weekends I was sure to be rooting against the Irish for financial reasons. But this was an awesome time. The pep rally was incredible and the atmosphere leading up to and including game day was sensational. It’s still one of the best times I’ve ever had. And as it turned out, my players ended up getting mostly hammered that weekend, which was icing on the cake.
Anyway, that story has absolutely nothing to do with this football game, just thought I’d throw it in. As for Saturday’s game between Louisville and Notre Dame, I’m looking at the underdog.
Louisville showed me something in its win at Boston College. The Cardinals were in a really bad scheduling spot, coming off the gut wrenching loss to Florida State. I was surprised at how they went into Chestnut Hill and blew up the Eagles. BC stayed in the game thanks to some staunch red zone defense in the first quarter, but this was basically a blowout, and that told me quite a bit about the character of this Louisville squad.
Notre Dame might not have that same internal engine. The Irish got kayoed at Arizona State, ending whatever playoff hopes they might have been entertaining. They then proceeded to mail it in last week against a Northwestern entry they should have handled without much difficulty. The fact it was a close game that the Wildcats won in overtime means little to me. I thought Notre Dame was dead in the water and showed no real fire.
Perhaps the Irish get back on track as they return home for this game, but I’m not counting on it. And in fact, I think Louisville is the better team regardless. I’m a big fan of backing underdogs that hold their opponents to less than 100 yards per game on the ground, and the ‘Ville qualifies on that count. I also believe the Cardinals will be able to crank up a pretty decent running game of their own here as that Notre Dame defensive front can be exploited.
But the big deal here is that Notre Dame is going to have to prove to me they’re not a broken team right now. That includes the coach, who made one of the silliest decisions I’ve ever seen last week from a math standpoint and cost his team the game in the process. In case you missed it, Brian Kelly went for two following a TD that had put Notre Dame up by 11. Huh?
I’d much rather have the team that proved its mettle off a tough loss, and the Cardinals are also well rested to boot. This line has been dropping, but getting more than a field goal still tells me that Louisville plus the points is the way to play.
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