Analysis: I was hoping this would go to -10 but first off, it doesn't look like it will, and secondly the sooner we put it out the more options you guys have and/or time to wait. I thought I'd like the Aggies here, but obviously I don't. For many of the same reasons we faded A & M last week large, we'll do it again. Coming into the season most thought they'd suck, and they beat what we now know to be a horrid Gamecock team. Then they go on to beat Lamar, Rice, and SMU. Of course once they start SEC play, they beat Arkansas in a semi-neutral site and lo and behold they're contenders. Well, Arkansas hasn't won an SEC game in forever. Then the Aggies lost at Mississippi State in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the 17 point deficit showed, and of course just couldn't handle Ole Miss at home, at night, with the 12th man. My point is that they are what we thought they were, and IMO they're beginning to realize that themselves. Alabama has played, by their standards, down. However, they're still Alabama who quite frankly won't take A & M lightly, and even Saban was pissed in the press conference last week, but not at his team, at the detracting press who said "you only beat Arkansas by one". That's about all the motivation he'll need for a statement game. There is no look-ahead to Tennessee this week, although next week there might be in Knoxville with LSU the following week. Anyhow, let's look at some numbers. The Tide are allowing only 68 rushing yards per game, third in the nation, and only a little over 4 rushing first downs per game. So, A & M will simply have to throw the ball. KNOWING that, don't you think Alabama will bring the house after a Sophomore QB making perhaps his biggest road start, and one whose thrown five picks the last two games? I certainly expect Alabama to "make Hill beat them", and he can't. I fully expect Alabama to come out like they did against Florida in their last home game and throw it around the field, and the Aggies can't stop them. Alabama is completing 66% of their passes and converting on over 50% of their third downs. The Aggies, since Conference play started, have allowed 37 points per game and that's not likely to get any better in Tuscaloosa. The Tide are ranked 7th in most polls, with a legitimate shot at making the Final Four, since they've got Auburn and Mississippi State at home, and it starts here with a rout of Texas A & M. I've got this one at 45-20, give or take.
FIU has just enough defense to be able to stop Marshall once or twice. That number still sitting at 21.5 is a red flag for me, so I am inclined to take the points, believe it or not.
I don't care how bad Wake is, their defense isn't as bad as their offense and Syracuse has no offense. I wonder how physically beat up Syracuse is after playing FSU, Notre Dame, and L'Ville,. I don't care how far the number has gone. This may be Wake's only chance to win a game, so I'd have to take a deep breath and the points.
Sharp money early on Miami (OH) but it's coming back at most sharp shops (Cris/Pinnacle). I don't trust UNI, especially on defense, and don't agree with the slight tick down in the total. I lean over, but admit to not having checked the weather yet. And as I type the over gets hit.
I know how well Minnesota has been playing, but when was the last time they were a DD favorite to a conference opponent. I can't find it going back eight years. Purdue put up some points against Michigan State, so they may well be able to hang. Obviously that's where the value is, IMO.
I like Iowa plus the points. Maryland has little to no defense and Iowa does.
I am close to firing on West Virginia. They're better than people think, and might be a little annoyed at Baylor hanging 70 on them a couple of times. Baylors' run defense is very suspect, which could open up the WVU pass even more.
I like Duke over UVA a fair bit. Duke had their sh*tty game against a pissed off Miami team and Duke's not good enough to get over confident after beating G-Tech. UVA has a defense, but Boone is like 15-1 as a starter. At -2.5 I may well do that.
I don't trust G-tech on the road, primarily because their defense sucks and North Carolina can score with anyone. People looking at this assuming Tech will bounce back, but from what and with what?
I like the over in the L'ville game primarily because although L'ville's defense is very good, this is a classic letdown spot for them, IMO. NC State CAN put a point or two on the board, but stopping even L'ville might be an issue.
Umass is now a -16.5 point favorite? I think not. They play their home games in Gillette Stadium, so no huge home field advantage here. I know it's EMU but this is a UMass team that couldn't win a game last year, or barely. Probably better games, but also a shootout if the weather system is gone.
I want no part of the next two MAC games on the rotation, but I will say it's probably too late to jump on CMU this week, except perhaps as part of a ML parlay.
I like Arkansas quite a bit. You're asking UGA to go win two straight road conference games. Arkansas is much better than Missouri on both sides of the ball, and takes more away from the "almost" win against Alabama than a win or a blowout loss. They may well get their first SEC win in forever.
This is not the SJUS team that had Fales and Grigsby. Line going that way because Wyoming comes back from Hawaii, but Wyoming has a decent home crowd (what else is there to do there) and they've played Michigan State and Oregon, so give me the Cowboys here.
I want no part of teams going to play in the Mile High air, other than to perhaps take New Mexico 1H and look for a close game, if not a lead at the half, to unload on Air Force the 2H.
I know how bad Tulsa is, but South Florida favored on the road is a new thing, too. Probably a game better left for ESPN3 if it's even on there. More than likely a sick shootout, IMO.
I don't get the massive move to LaTech, either. Both teams have played some sick out of conference games, and LaTech has had two weeks off. Still, the talent discrepancy in this conference doesn't warrant that big of a number, since anything can and usually does happen. No thank you.
I know how tough it would be to take Southern Miss, but North Texas has no offense at all, so let's not go over board here. At +10 I may well have taken a flyer.
Again, tough to take SMU but Cincinnati is allowing about 200 yards a game on the ground. That simply doesn't warrant being a -14 point favorite on the road to anyone.
App State is a shadow of their former selves, and now that the legendary coach is gone, it's getting worse. For now they are an auto-fade, and I don't care how good or bad Troy is.
Lots of people are high on Nevada or down on BYU, depending on your perspective. BYU has had a little extra time, and Stewart started to look a little more comfortable late in the UCF game. I think I want no part of it other than to say BYU even limited, is the far better team here.
Kent really is that bad, and I know Jeff Monken from his days at Georgia Southern. He will have Army playing better each week, so I do think they win that game.
I also think Stanford may be the right side. I know they've had a tough schedule from at least a travel standpoint, but they've clearly got the far superior defense here, and Arizona State's defense sucks, so I can't back the home dog here.
I may be in the minority, but Oregon may well kick the sh*t out of Washington. People forget that the Ducks lost their two starting tackles, who are now back.
I think UAB may beat MTSU simply because most people think MTSU is really good, yet UAB is not a big dog here. Super high scoring game coming, so the team with the best turnover margin wins. And that's the home team, believe it or not, so MTSU or nothing.
Cal is certainly the sharp and trendy pick, but Cal is one of those teams I just don't trust. There is no doubt that UCLA has the better team, and I am inclined to think they win the game by plenty, just because Cal is a worse bet-on at home. They're about 2-11 ATS at home.
Well, we, at this current number, want no part of Ohio State. Over, if anything.
The total going up in the Colorado-SoCal game has me thinking the Rubbers may well cover that big number. I don't like the sandwich their in, between road game w/Arizona and Utah, so probably better left alone there.
If Michigan State allowed 31 points to Purdue (they did) then I can't lay -15 or more against a better offense in Indiana. Especially where the Spartans play Michigan next week. That may be enough for me to take Indiana.
The free world is on Boston College, as most of you probably know. Since I don't trust either defense, that total may well have moved TOO far south not to take the over.
It's hard not to like K-State, but at the same time interesting that they haven't bought +7 yet, either. K-State has a great defense, and Oklahoma's is better than people think, so at this point I like the under best in that game. However, I am late to that party. We'll see.
I love Idaho at home in that Kibble Dome thing!
Florida Atlantic has played some much better teams than Western Kentucky, like Nebraska and Alabama. That counts for something, even after they were hammered by FIU. Got to think at home they've got a chance to win that game.
Lots of people like Colorado State. Because that line still sits at a dead number, I'll wait. My initial research said that Utah State, although not what they were, is good enough to hang here. Next line move is probably the right one, IMO.
I so badly want to take Tennessee, but part of me says that Mississippi isn't good enough, or hasn't been good enough long enough, to get cocky. Not laying those points, but can't take them, either. UT has some skill position players on offense, but not enough, and Ole Miss' defense is that good. Under, perhaps.
I tried NOT to take Iowa State because that's what everyone else did. But, the number still sits there while the total plummets. That would be a concern, so I am just going to leave this one alone unless and until some line move gives it away.
I really wish I took Florida the other day. Missouri does suck, but laying points with Florida's offense is tough. They do have a bye coming up before playing UGA, so maybe I can get there. Honestly, I would have no problem laying the -250 ML for 1* and almost did, in the system. It's a better deal than trying to tease them (or any CFB game).
I want no part of Texas Tech -13. They just don't have enough defense, even playing Kansas. The total going up suggests that they may well be the right side, but not for me.
Oklahoma State getting 9 points is probably too much to pass up here, that's all I have to say about that one. I do think TCU is that much better, but where are their heads' at after last weeks meltdown against Baylor? I can't go there.
We (I) don't want much to do with a game that's got a total of 44 and a spread of 20. That would be UCF. Conventional wisdom would say Tulane may not score, but UCF's offense is far from dynamic. I do lean under there, even at 44.
Everyone is going to be sharp and take Northwestern. I might, but that line just keeps hovering and we were lucky two weeks ago that Nebraska covered at Michigan State. I don't think I can go to that well again, but they do have that much more talent. I like the over a fair bit there, actually.
The LSU line is now back to -10, and I thought that might happen. Not sure how to play that one. I do like Kentucky, but they're not going to sneak up on people like they might have earlier in the year. Late to that party on the over, too. Going to wait that one out.
I don't have a clue about FSU-Notre Dame, whether Winston plays or not. I lean Notre Dame just based on what I've seen (a lot) of both teams, but that line still sitting that high before it got taken off says something. It says Dave might have more fun watching that one rather than betting it, but if I had to I would lean to the under. The total will be inflated for any number of reasons, and both teams probably have better defenses than offenses.
I like Hawaii, but mainly because I don't like San Diego State. They have no offense at all, and struggle in the games they should win.