We do this every week for LT clients and wanted to share some of it as substantive reading material for with the forums. The free one is forthcoming, although I've already given out G-Southern over, and you can get a better number now than I did. Don't miss too many of the best #'s but may have on that one. We'll see.
Too much of a rivalry game between Texas and the Sooners for me to lay those points, especially with the total coming down. Now have to see how Oklahoma responds to a loss, and if you made me bet this game I would take the points. I don't trust the Sooners defense.
The sharper money is/was on Purdue but now it's less than +21 so I will likely pass. Games are not usually that easy. I have to wonder how the Spartans respond after letting Nebraska make a game of it, and they play Indiana on the road next week. IMO they won't cover both and with the total coming down this is probably a game better left alone, for me.
Early money on the Gophers over Northwestern, but I lean to the Huskies here. We were all over them last week over
Wisconsin, feeling that they would finally play to their potential, and I still think the market might not have caught up to them. Like them here.
Neither Rice nor Army have beaten anyone decent, and not that you would expect them to, but given Rice's far superior schedule (Notre Dame and A & M) plus the fact that they've won a road game (albiet as So Miss) I would have to think that they win. However, given it's obviously a non-conference game, I'll take pause. They do have a bye week coming up, so perhaps we see max effort. Tough game.
Everyone all over Temple and I get that, but aside from Navy (who they lost to) they haven't played a decent team yet. Of course Tulsa has been horrible, but they will throw the ball around the yard, and now sitting at +17.5 the back door value could be with Tulsa.
Clearly Marshall and Cato are the real deal, but at some point the value and the line just go too far. They haven't beaten a good team yet, and they're not going undefeated ATS. MTSU is perhaps the best team they've played this season and MTSU will put points on the board, so I'd be inclined to that the +24.5 at this point.
A game I am very leery of is that FSU game. I know all about Syracuse and their woes even before the QB issue, but the very fact that the number will not go (and stay) at -24 at most sharp books is a yellow flag for me. With FSU having Notre Dame then Louisville in the next two weeks, I'm not laying the points here. I think they may beat Notre Dame and then have their letdown against Louisville, actually.
Ah, Duke and G-Tech. Two teams we know well and have bet on and against. We had Tech as our big play last week, but we also thought Duke would give Miami a game the week before. I actually tend to agree with the move here to G-Tech, but at +6 I probably should have been all over Duke. Duke has fallen back under the radar, but I do like Boone quite a bit, and they've had a bye week to prepare. At the current number I'd play the Tech ML of anything, but it would NOT surprise me to see this a very close game. If Duke DOES get a few stops and score early, Tech is simply does not have the type of offense that's gonna to come back in a hurry, and although Justin Thomas is perhaps the best thing going in that triple option, I've seen him throw some pretty miserable passes.
Wisconsin just doesn't seem to be with it lately, and looks vulnerable. However, Illinois may be jsut what the doctor ordered here. I do like the over in this one, simply because with the Badgers likely ahead early and late, Illinois may put a couple on the board against the B team. What I do think, going forward, is that Wisconsin won't cover two at home and next week they've got Maryland before going to Rutgers, and that Terps line, assuming they whip Illinois, might be too high. Just looking ahead so we'll be ready.
Boston College took USC by surprise, but they simply cannot throw the ball. I watched Murphy against the Panthers and swore I would not take them. He just can't hit an open receiver. Hence, anytime the Eagles get in a must-pass situation, I am very concerned. Keenly aware of the line move here, but NC State can put points on the board, and I think they will. At that opening number I would have liked to take the Eagles, but now, it's the Wolfpack ML, IMO.