On the opening weekend of the college football season, Arkansas lost by 24 points to Auburn while Texas A&M beat South Carolina by 27.
Mike linebacker Jordan Mastrogiovanni figures to play a key role when the Aggies and Hogs tangle this weekend
Both A&M and Arkansas faced off against top ten teams on the road with drastically different results, yet people have seemingly forgotten those games were every played.
Such is life four games into a college football season.
Saturday, the Aggies and Hogs face off at AT&T Stadium in Arlington in probably the most anticipated matchup in a series that resumed in 2009 as a non conference game that has morphed into an early season Southeastern Conference game for both programs. Both teams are more highly thought of than they were coming into the pre season and both benefitted from road wins (the Aggies at South Carolina and the Razorbacks at Texas Tech). It’s also the most contrasting of styles….A&M’s up tempo spread offense versus Arkansas’ West Coast power rushing attack with a huge offensive line and three good backs, old school versus new age.
I’ve watched both teams now in multiple games so here’s some things to look for that I’ve been thinking about before either team played their games this past weekend.
-If you don’t have a pass rush against A&M, the odds are really stacked against you before you even have played a snap. Quarterback Kenny Hill is poised and accurate so if you can’t get pressure on him then he will sit back and consistently hit to 15 yard passes on you all day. South Carolina rushed three and four and without a legit pass rusher it was hopeless. Rice’s defensive ends actually got pressure on Hill and made him move around and he was less accurate on some of his downfield throws because he couldn’t set his feet. SMU blitzed him inside and once A&M adjusted early in and started picking it up they scored 35 points to finish off the half.
Arkansas currently ranks fifth in sacks in the SEC but of their eight sacks only two came against Auburn and Texas Tech. They played lighter guys at three tech defensive tackle to get upfield to make Tech quarterback Davis Webb which worked some of the time. However, for the most part their defensive line struggles with get off and in contrast A&M’s offensive line has allowed just three sacks in four games.
-South Carolina was missing multiple defensive starters from last season in the opener versus A&M. They played soft man coverages which was followed up by Lamar playing zone coverages. Neither worked as A&M was able to hit a high proportion of its medium range game down the field because Hill’s release is so quick and also used its bigger receivers to run bubble screens effectively. Rice’s corners pressed A&M’s outside receivers, disrupted their routes, and also made it difficult for the Aggies to throw bubble.
Against Texas Tech, Arkansas played a lot of two high looks with zone coverage underneath it and kept everything in front of them. Tech threw a lot of shallow cross and turned it up near the sideline or over the middle for yards after catch. Their back seven isn’t that athletic and doesn’t react well to plays in space.
Ricky Seals-Jones figures to play a big role as both a blocker and receiver against Arkansas
Because of the lack of pass rush and athleticism, Arkansas ranks in the bottom half of the SEC in sacks, completion %, and yard per attempt.
It’s not a good matchup and South Carolina probably had better athletes back there than the Hogs.
-In my opinion, what changed the way everyone looks at Arkansas vis a vis A&M is their victory over Texas Tech because it was on the road, Tech played in a bowl game last year, and was just physically manhandled. In particular, Arkansas ended the game with 30 straight runs even though everyone in the stadium knew it was coming. Their offensive line averages 6 foot 6 and 328 pounds and is bigger than South Carolina’s unit which is also celebrated for its size. Their fullback is 257 pounds and their tight ends are 255 pounds.
However, when I went back and watched the film of the Arkansas-Tech game, Tech’s lack of size really jumped out at me. Outside of a couple of junior college transfers, their defensive line included no one over 270 pounds in their front three. They have multiple sub 6 foot linebackers and a 5 foot 9 free safety. They’re undersized even by Big 12 standards and that’s a league that has downsized a lot of its personnel because it has to defend the pass so much.
After that, it’s easy to see why Arkansas (or for that matter Central Arkansas) moved the ball so easily on them.
-Arkansas runs just about everything you can out of the West Coast rushing offense….power/G with a pulling guard, inside and outside zone, toss, lead draw. They’ll also use a fullback, multiple tight ends, and reduce their formations via tight receiver alignments to obtain better perimeter blocking angles on certain plays.
Big offensive lines usually do quite well with these plays against defensive lines that lack size but also that lack get off. On plays in which a lineman pulls, the linemen are typically doubling at the point of attack and the backside guard is pulling to the playside. The fullback kicks out an outside defender and the pulling lineman goes through the hole. On lead draw and inside zone, it’s just hat on hat.
But either way, a defense has to be able to hold up at the point of attack and then have the backside defenders have sufficient get off to make the play behind them. The interior defenders must be able to command and maintain double teams so that the inside backers can step up unimpeded and stop the play at the line of scrimmage.
Last season, A&M lacked both the size, athleticism, and depth necessary to play run defense at a high level in the SEC. Their linemen lacked the size to hold up versus double teams and even single blocks. They lacked get off and when they got tired there was no one to replace them so they played with worsening technique.
This season is a different story. The Aggies have more size for sure at the defensive tackle position, better depth, and with their defensive ends people that can set the edge against pulling linemen or can beat reach and down blocks. A&M ranks second in the SEC in tackles for loss right now after four games.
Arkansas is running the delay draw more this season as a power running play and it’s a play that goes right at A&M’s most vulnerable areas of the defense. That’s a play I would look for a lot on Saturday.
-The biggest questions on A&M’s defense right now are in the back seven. The Aggies will go with three linebackers Saturday the vast majority of the time on first and second down as it’s doubtful that they’ll see multiple receivers in the game very often. However, they’re missing A.J. Hilliard for the season (who played very well) and Jordan Mastrogiovanni and Shaan Washington are coming back from injury.
Due to injuries and off season attrition, there’s a steep drop off from top backup Justin Bass. A&M really can’t afford to lose any more linebackers and in fact there may be something of a drop off beyond Mastrogiovanni and Washington in terms of athleticism. The Aggies are going to need to stay healthy there and have the inside backers stalemate Arkansas’ backs and get them on the ground. In addition, A&M’s safeties are going to have to be most active in run support.
In addition, Arkansas hurt the Aggies last season off of play action to their tight ends and A&M had a difficult time covering the backs against Lamar and Rice. The Hogs don’t really have anybody that can get downfield at the receiver positions but A&M’s linebackers and secondary will have to communicate to make sure that there are no breakdowns.
-Overall, A&M’s probably better equipped to beat Arkansas than people assume on the surface. Again, A&M’s back seven play may be enough of an issue so that the Hogs can run the ball and put 20+ points on the board. However, against the only other team on Arkansas’ schedule with a decent defensive line was Auburn and the Tigers used their size to get Arkansas into third and medium/long situations (via five tackles for loss) enough that they went only two of ten on third down. Even so, that’s predicated on A&M getting upfield and its back seven personnel playing near the line of scrimmage aggressively.
Conversely, Arkansas played mostly cover two last season against the Aggies who responded by running the ball right at them because their safeties couldn’t get downfield in time. In addition, if the Hogs’ corners are playing five yards off, then A&M will be able to run bubble and use their physical receivers to get downfield blocks before they can respond.
Either way, this shapes up as a game where Arkansas figures to stay with A&M for a while but as happened last season it also figures that the Aggies will continue to score and at some point the Hogs won’t be able to keep up.