Auburn -7 (-115) at Kansas State
Auburn returned 8 starters on offense including its dual-threat QB. This year the Tigers has not shown
any sign of slowing down esp. on offense. This week Auburn will have the service of a healthy Sammie
Coates. The star wide out, projected 1st Round, only has one reception so far while battling a leg injury.
Last year Tigers averaged 39.5 ppg and averaged 328 yds rushing and 173 yds passing. After 2 games TY,
Arkansas and San Jose St., offense averages 52 points and 544 yards total offense including 330 rushing
yards while the defense, allowed 17 points and 324 yards total offense, seems to improve as well.
The Tigers are 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as favorite and 13-0 ATS last 13 games.
Kansas State Wildcats returned its QB, lost a good RB John Hubert (1048 yards), lost top 2 WR, 3 starters
on the OL with very little depth. The defense also lost quite a bit. The Line and LB each lost 2 starters,
Secondary lost 3 of its top 5 DB. It's certainly a concern for KSU allowing 28 points to Iowa St. and 16 pts
to Stephen F Austin heading into a game against an offensive juggernaut of Auburn.
KSU is a ball-control offense relying on the quarterback run game. However Wildcats biggest offensive
weapon is receiver Tyler Lockett who averages 75 yards a game this year.
Kansas State has been a consistently strong program under Bill Snyder and is 3-0 ATS as an underdog.
However, KSU failed to beat a ranked opponent at home in 2013, lost to Baylor and Oklahoma
A factor worth being considered is during Wildcats high's in 2011 (Cotton Bowl) and 2012 (BCS Bowl),
Wildcats netted +12 TO's margin in 2011 and +20 in 2012 (ranked #2 in the nation) In 2013 they only
netted EVEN on TO's and the team promptly lost 5 games. In those 2 prestigious Bowls, the Wildcats'
opponents (Arkansas in 2011 and Oregon in 2012) took care of the ball and played a conservative
offense, Wildcats lost the TO's battle as well as the games. This year they are +1 TO's after 2 games.
There is not much historical data on head-to-head match up between these 2 teams. The closest data
for evaluating is to use last year performance vs this year against same opponent. It appears the
Tigers is getting better on both sides of the ball (vs an improved Arkansas) while the Wildcats seems
to regress some especially on defense (vs Iowa St.) which correlates to key players departures.
The Wildcats, a very discipline and well-coached team, may hang with the Tigers in first half but the
offense will stall in 2H due to a thin OL and no proven rusher besides the QB. The defense, though
decent but too many new faces, is no match for the type of offensive attack by the Tigers. On the other
hand, Auburn offense has been successful vs every defense it has faced. Tigers defense though
underrated was pretty dominant holding some of the best dual-threat QB/spread offense in check.
Last year Tigers (on the Road) held Johnny football team to 133 rushing yards, and Bo Wallace of Ole
Miss team to 124 rushing yards (exception vs Mizzou 231 rushing yards)
Wildcats will score some points but the overall talent truly favors the Tigers in this contest and the
Tigers will run away as the Wildcats is not equipped to keep up with a high scoring affair vs Tigers.
Take the Tigers -7 (-115)