I put a ton of work into my week 1 picks which makes it all the more gratifying that they went 7-2. I really feel dialed in right now.
Update: There's a good chance I will have a play on the WVU/Towson game when the line comes out.
Update, 9-3, 3:42 pm: Adding WVU -17.5 (vs Towson) Write-up to follow.
I like USC +4. The bottom line here is that USC is underrated because of their coaching situation from last season. Lane Kiffin was a poor coach who hasn't been awarded coaching jobs throughout his career based on merit but rather because his father is the legendary Monte Kiffin. Lane did a poor job at USC on the field despite the fact that he did an excellent job recruiting. Now that USC has a competent coach in Steve Sarkisian we will start to see them play up to their ability. In fact we already saw it week 1 when they crushed Fresno State. USC was favored by 18.5 and won the game by 39.
Sarkisian was the head coach at Washington last year and with a less talented team (see what they did against Hawaii in this year's opener) than he currently has at USC and was able to go into Stanford and play them tough. Stanford ended up winning the game by 3. Dig a little deeper though and you will be impressed. I'll save you the time and post some stats from that game:
Washington out-gained Stanford by over 200 yards. Now Sarkisian gets another shot at Stanford, this time with better weapons. Take the points.
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: USC +4
I like TEXAS -4.5 in this one. New head coach Charlie Strong spent the off season toning down expectations but the fact of the matter is this Texas team has a lot of talent and is underrated. One reason they are underrated is because of poor coaching the past few years. Another reason is because of the off-season house cleaning undertaken by Strong. Strong dismissed multiple players including running backs Joe Bergeron and Jalen Overstreet, and receivers Kendall Sanders and Montrel Meander. I think there has been an overreaction to these dismissals.Texas will be fine without them, especially against BYU. Depth might be an issue later on down the road but that is not our concern. Texas' starting RB Jonathan Gray was the number one ranked running back in his recruiting class and averaged 4.9 yards per carry for the Longhorns last season. Gray's backup Malcolm Brown was also a 5 star recruit. Texas should also be fine at receiver against BYU with John Harris and Jaxon Shipley.
BYU beat Texas last season 40-21 but I'm not putting too much stock in that result considering Mack Brown was the coach. Strong is attempting to change the culture at Texas and is focusing on strength and toughness. The result will likely be an improved defense as Strong has a lot of talent to work with and made a name for himself as a defensive coach. We are already starting to see the change as Texas was dominant on defense in its opener holding North Texas to 7 points with those 7 being scored on fumble recovery on defense.
There was some concern as to whether Texas' QB David Ash who missed most of last year due to a concussion would be able to take a hit and bounce back. He took several in the opener with no issues and looks to be fully healthy. The spot favors Texas as this will be BYU's second road game in a row while it will be Texas' second home game in a row. I look for a statement game from Charlie Strong and company against a team that embarrassed them last season. The statement: the new era of Texas football has arrived.
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: TEXAS -4.5
*UPDATE* MONDAY, Sept. 1st 12:21 pm
I just read starting QB David Ash will not be available for this game (despite reading the exact opposite yesterday). However I still like my bet as Texas will likely start dual threat QB Tyrone Swoopes. David Ash was not the main reason I was betting Texas and it's entirely possible Texas will be better with Swoopes at QB.
*UPDATE* TUESDAY, Sept 2nd 10:36 am
It looks like Texas' center is injured and will miss the game. FML, lol. I'm sticking with my pick but if anyone wants to bail I won't be mad.