Game – Wake Forest at ULM (Louisiana, Monroe), starts approx. 7:00 EDT
Current consensus lines – ULM -1.5 and -125 ML
Pick – ULM at -125 on ML to win 2 units
Support for ULM (La Monroe) over Wake Forest)
When ULM upset Wake LY 21-19 in Winston-Salem, NC, the Warhawks had irrepressible Sr. QB Kolton Browning around to pass 69 times, good for 3 TDs and a valuable 39 mins. of ball control. Browning out-finessed Sr. Deacon QB Tanner Price in that game. ULM did lose some in the off-season, but they gained a QB, in senior transfer (from NC State) Pete Thomas, who went to ULM when Dave Doeren (new Wolf Pack coach) said that Jacoby Brissett (a Florida transfer) would start the next two years. Thomas also played at Colorado State for two years, so he's got something to prove, not to mention 27 career starts at Colorado State and N.C. State. He's not the be all, end all, or he'd still be the QB at NC State, but he's a far better QB than a true freshman starting his first career game on the road (as is the case for WF QB John Wolford).The Warhawks are still undersized on defense (30 ppg LY), but their nine returning defensive starters might allow ULM to sweep its rebuilding ACC foe.
Dave Clawson comes from Bowling Green to be the first year Deacons coach at Wake, so we've got a first year coach and a true Freshman QB (John Wolford), both opening on the road, as a “short” underdog. Yes, Wolford broke all of Tim Tebow's High School Florida records, and has lots of potential, but this is a quantum leap for him. Wake also brings back NONE of their starting backfield and only three offensive linemen, and they bring back ZERO of their defensive line. In contrast, ULM brings back almost their entire defense, and defenses are almost always ahead of offenses early on. Moreover, Wake couldn't score much LAST year, even with veteran QB tanner price and everyone else that departed along with him, and the loss of Price for Wake is far more significant than the loss of Browning for ULM. Wake in their last 20 road games is 5-15 SU and not much better ATS, although with the coaching change, not sure how relevant that is.
ULM wasn't a juggernaut LY and won’t be one TY either, and they have shown little consistency as a small to medium priced home fave L3Y. But Wake was awful last year, and with so little of their offense or defense left from last season, they are likely even worse TY - and again, breaking in a new coach and a new, true frosh QB in a road opener. Bottom line, we don’t think this is a good spot at all for Wake, so we’ll go against them. But not being wild about the prospect of ULM covering a point spread (even if it’s just 1.5 points) as well as winning the game, we prefer to take them at -125 odds on the ML rather than lay -1.5 or 2 points ATS.