This is the 5th of my CFB previews for the year. One more thing, I really did try and not write as much (really I did), but it just didn't turn out that way. Sorry for all the reading. LOL. Nothing out of the ordinary this year. All my own writing, but obviously i did have to do allot of reading (which I have been doing a ton) and the...
Info Gathered For My Previews Have Been Taken From Phil Steels's CFB Preview, Athlon Sports and The Sporting News. Trends are From Marc Lawrence's Playbook.
American Athletic Conference Preview
ACC Conference Preview
Independents Preview
Big 12 Conference Preview
Conference USA East Division (Order Is In Projected Finish)
The Marshall Thundering Herd had a very nice 2013, going 10-4 overall and 7-1 in Conference USA. They did lose to Rice in the Conf USA title game, but then bounced back with a 31-20 win over Maryland in the Military Bowl. Now with 59 lettermen back, including 14 starters, the Herd are set up for what may very well be a magical season for them. Marshall’s high powered offense put up 42.1 ppg last year and 40.9 ppg in 2012 and will be very strong again this year. 6 starters are back on this side of the ball, including Rakeem Cato, who is rated in the top 10 of QB’s in the nation. Last year he threw for 3919 yards with 39 Tds and just 8 INTs. Cato has his favorite target back in Tommy Shuler, who had 106 catches for 1165 yards and 10 TDs last year. Overall this is the WR corps in Conf USA. The Herd did lose 1000 yard back Essray Taliaferro, but Steward Butler is back after rumbling for 765 yards at 8.8 ypc last year. The OL has 3 starters back and plenty of depth so they are a solid group overall, that will open holes for the running game, while also protecting Cato. In 2012 the defense allowed 43.1 ppg, but last year they improved to 22.9 ppg allowed. This year with 8 starters back they could be even better. The DL is led by James Rouse, who had 14 TFL last year. This is a deep group and should be better than last year’s unit that allowed just 3.7 ypc. The LB corps is rated 23rd best in the nation, while the secondary, led by AJ Legett (4 INTs last year) has been rated as 16th bet in the nation by Phil Steele. Marshall has no East Carolina to worry about this year and they may have been the only team to take this team down this year. Marshall comes in with the best offense in the league, plus the best defense, as well as the 2nd best special teams unit. With 59 letterman back they are one of the most experienced team in the nation and all the experience will be facing the 122nd toughest schedule in the Nation. This team is loaded and the only team that can beat Marshal this year is well uh Marshall. A 13-0 record and a very nice bowl invite should await them, but their strength of schedule will not put them in the playoffs. KEY TREND: 1-8 ATS as road favorites of 12 or more points.
The Florida Atlantic Owls finished last year on a 4-0 run to make bowl eligibility for the first time since 2008. They were not selected for a bowl game last year, but this is a team on the rise and will most likely take that next step this year, which will be a bowl invite. The Owls averaged a solid 26.4 ppg last year and even with just 5 starters back this year they could eclipse that number. Dual threat QB Jaquez Johnson is back after leading the team in rushing (772 yards & 10 TDs) while throwing for 1876 yards and 12 TDs. Tp WR Daniel McKinney is gone from last year, but this is still a talent WR Corp that will be led by William Dukes (533 yards, 15.8 ypc and 6 TDs Last year). The running game has a decent stable of backs, led by Jay Warren (340 yards and 2 TDs last year), but there are questions on the OL, which could hinder the ground attack some. Last year the Owls allowed 22.3 ppg overall, but during their 4 game win stretch to end the year they allowed just 10 ppg. The secondary is the strength of this defense, led by D’Joun Smith and Christian Milstead, who combined for 11 INTs and 17 PBUs last year. The DL line looks solid as well, while the LB corps led by Andrea Kirk, who led the team in tackles last year, will be an average group at best. The Special teams unit gets a boost with highly touted K Landon Scheer, but overall this is a below average unit. The Owls went through their turmoil last year when Carl Pelini resigned amidst allegations of illegal drug use, but that turned out to be a blessing as the team won their last 4 games without him and have momentum heading into this year. This year the offense will be a stronger group, especially if the OL comes together. The Defense has a few issues in the middle, but the DL is solid and the secondary is one of the best in Conference USA. The Schedule is tough to start the year, with road dates vs Nebraska and Alabama, but much of the rest of the schedule is manageable and should have this team sitting with 7 wins and a Bowl invite at the end of the year. KEY TREND: 1-6 ATS as home favorites off BB Road games.
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders had a nice 8-5 season a year ago, but it did end on a down note as they lost to Navy 24-6 in the Armed Forces Bowl. It was their second 8 win season in a row, after going just 2-10 in 2011. This year’s Blue Raiders squad has 49 letterman back and look to build off the last 2 years, but beating out the thundering herd in East will not be easily done. Preview & schedule below. The Blue Raiders averaged 29 ppg last year and this year have just 5 starters back and must replace QB Logan Kilgore. This year Austin Grammer looks to take the QB job and is 1 of 3 dual threat QB’s on the roster. Grammer will team up with 4 returning backs that all had at least 241 yards rushing last year. This is a deep corps of RB that MTSU has, but there are questions on the OL, where the entire interior of the line must be rebuilt. Seniors Marcus Henry (549 yards) and Chris Perkins (123 yards) lead a decent but unspectacular WR corps. The defense for the Blue Raiders allowed 26.2 ppg last year, but with 25 of 33 lettermen back, including 8 starters, I expect this group to improve this year. The strength of this unit is the LB Corps, which is led by TT Barber, who led the team in tackles with 119 and also had 11.5 TFL and 3 INTs on the year as well. A defensive stat stuffer. Kevin Bayrd is back to lead s ball playmaking secondary, after he had 106 tackles, 5 PBUs and 5 INTs last year. The DL is also looking very solid with 3 of 4 starters back and some good depth. This defense was 5 th nationally in takeaways last year. Marshall will not be beat this year in conference play, so really MTSU will be battling FAU and WKU for second place in the East. The offense has plenty of playmakers on it, which will produce plenty of points, but still the OL needs to gel to make that happen. I see the defense as much improved over last year’s group, especially if the back 7 plays to their potential. MTSU’s schedule ranks 124th in the nation and even though this team may be overall weaker than last year, they should still produce another 8 win season and grab another bowl invite. I do think they are 3rd though in Conference USA East. KEY TREND: 6-0 ATS after playing Western Kentucky.
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers were just 2-22 in their first 2 season at the FBS level (2009-10), but they have now strung together 3 winning seasons in a row and have made the jump to Conference USA. The Hilltoppers may be playing with a chip on their shoulder as they were snubbed for a bowl bid last year, despite going 8-4 on the season. Jeff Brohn was the OC for the Hilltoppers last year, but has moved up to take over the HC duties. That means nothing should change offensively for a team that put up 30.8 ppg and set 20 Team/ player school records along the way. They will lose top back Antonio Andrews, who led the nation in all-purpose yards last year, but a stable of talented backs are ready to have a solid year, including Leon Allen who ran for 357 yards and 5 TDs last year. He will be operating behind a very solid OL that has 3 starters back the year. Brandon Doughty is back to QB the team, after throwing for 2857 yards with 14 TDs and 14 INTs last year. He is a senior and should have a better year, especially with 8 players back that caught at least 13 passes last year. The defense is where this team cold struggle this year, as they lost their top 5 tacklers from a team that was 14th in the nation in total defense and 10th in passing defense last year. Cam Thomas is the top returning tackler, with 41, while he had 10 PBUs and 5 INTs last year. Stlll the secondary will beat much weaker this year, while the LB corps must be totally rebuilt and the DL comes in as a very average group. Jeff Brohm was promoted to HC from within the organization and 6 assistants stayed with him, so there should be a smooth transition. The looks very strong again, even with the loss of Andrews, but it will be the defense that could hold this team back this year and you need at least a decent defense in the offensive minded Conference USA. The schedule will be tougher for them as the make the leap up in competition, but overall this is a very good football team that could go at least 7-5, especially if their young defense steps up. KEY TREND: 10-2 ATS on the road vs sub .500 teams.
The Old Dominion Monarchs were 8-4 in their inaugural season at the FBS level. A closer look shows that they were just 1-4 vs FBS teams last year and 7-0 vs FCS teams. This year they have 17 starters back, have a year under their belt at the FBS level and will be looking for their first bowl invite in 2014. Preview & schedule below. Monarch games were fun to watch last year as 971 ypg and 77 ppg where put up combined in their games last year. That’s allot of offense and the Monarchs put up most of it, averaging 519 ypg and 42.3 ppg. Remember though that 7 of their games were vs FCS teams. Still, this offense will be very good again this year with 7 starters back, including QB Taylor Heinicke, who threw for 4088 yards with 33 TDs and just 8 INTs last year. Oh and he also had 348 yards on the ground as well. The running game loses its top back from last year, but Cam Boyd is solid after running for 450 yards and 5 TD’s last year. The OL is a problem spot as they return just 2 starters and have little depth. It is rated one of the worst in Conference USA, but Monarchs do have the best set of WRs in the league, led by Larry Pinkard and Antonio Vaughn, who combined for 128 catches, 1863 yards and 18 TDs last year. The defense allowed 34 ppg last year and again 7 of their games were vs FBS foes. This year they have 10 starters and 12 of their top 14 tacklers back from last year, so this should be an improved group overall. The Front 7 is average at best, while the secondary could struggle again, especially vs some of the pass happy teams in this conference. ODU is making a big leap to Conference USA this year and will face 11 FBS foes and 1 FCS for, compared to last years & FCS foes and just 5 FBS foes. The offense is stacked again and can score with any team in the conference, but the questions on defense vs much tougher offenses this year may be enough to keep this team from a bowl invite this year. They will be a fun team to watch though, but in the end I feel they may come up just short of a bowl game. KEY TREND: No Relevant Trends Yet
The UAB Blazers last had a winning season back in 2014, when they went 7-5 and faced Hawaii in the Hawaii Bowl. Since then they have gone 31-76 and from 2009 thru 2013, they won 5, 4, 3, 3, and 2 games. With that pattern they will win either 2 or 1 game this year. This year they have a new energy with 15 starters back and a new HC (Bill Clark), which does give them a shot at 3 or more wins this year, but the schedule may not allow that. The offense last year put up 26.3 ppg, but they will be losing both QB’s and their top RB from that team. Juco QB Cody Clemens looks to lead the blazers this year, and will have the top 3 targets back from last year, including big play threat Jamarcus Nelson, who averaged 20.1 yards per catch last year on 46 receptions, while finding the endzone 8 times. The running game loses a 900 yard back, but also returns a nearly 900 yard back in Jordan Howard, who had 881 yards last year. The OL will be a solid group, with 3 starters back and some depth. Defensively, this team had many problems last year, as they allowed 43.8 ppg. This year 8 starters are back to this side of the ball and while it will improve, it is still a weak defense. The front 7 will struggle for the Blazers, but then secondary looks to be in good shape, as all 4 starters are back. Special teams are the strength of this team as they rate the best in Conference USA and 17th in the nation. The Blazer offense will be an improved group and could approach putting up 30 ppg. The defense is another story, as they were so bad last year that even if the improve, they will still probably allow 35+ ppg. The Schedule is tough with their tough, with North Texas, La Tech and Marshall at home, while having to travel to MTSU, FAU and WKU, in the conference and Miss State and Arkansas out of the conference. They should bag wins vs FIU and Alabama A&M at home, which means the only way they get to 3 wins will be by beating Southern Miss on the road to end the year. This is an improved team, but it will not show up in their record. KEY TREND: 1-7 ATS on the road vs a .500 or better opponent.
After going 8-5 back in 2011, the FIU Golden Panthers have gone just 4-20 the last 2 years, including last year’s 1-11 mark. This year they have 17 starters back and are in the 2nd year of Ron Turner’s systems, so they will be improved, but how much will it show in the record. 9.8 ppg. Yes that is what the Panthers scored last year. With just 2 starters back last year they had the worst offense in the Nation. This year they have 10 starters back on this side of the, but the one loss was their QB. Freshman Alex Mcgough looks to take over the job and will have the top 4 WR’s from last year back to get the ball to. The running game averaged just 76 ypg last year, but with their top 3 rushers back, including Lamarq Caldwell (504 yards last year) and all 5 linemen, 3 of which are seniors, they should be much improved on the ground. Last year the defense had just 4 starters back and they ended up allowing 37 ppg, which was 6 more ppg than in 2012. This year they have 7 starters back on this side of the ball, so improvement will be expected. Improvement will not be all that easy as they did lose their top 2 tacklers, they have no one back with more than 2 sacks and only two players with INTs return. The defense is more experienced than last year but it has very little depth and is still pretty young overall. FIU had a year last year and it could be another long one for them this year. The Offense will be improved but I still see it hard for them to top 17 ppg this year, while the defense still has many weaknesses. Overall this will be an improved team, but they still have too much ground to make up for the results to show up positive in the standing. They may at best double last year’s total of 1 win they put up. KEY TREND: 1-8 ATS with rest vs an opponent off a SU loss.
Conference USA West Division
This will be just the 4th year of FBS football for the Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners and they come in off an 8-4 season in 2012 and a 7-5 season last year. This year HC Larry Coker will have his best team year as they return 55 lettermen, including 20 starters, which makes them the most experienced team in the nation. The lone player missing from this offense is QB Eric Soza, but he was really just an average QB. He did complete 62.2% of his passes but also threw just 12 TDs passes to 11 INTs. Tucker Carte is a senior and will look to lead this offense to better heights this year, after putting up a solid 25.6 ppg last year. Has the luxury of having the top 9 pass catcher back from last year, all of whom caught at least 14 passes. The running game should be decent with David Glasco returning, after running for 496 yards and 5 TDs last year and he will be running behind a very good offense line that has a whopping 143 career starts returning (2nd in nation). The defense will also return 10 starters and 14 of their top 16 tacklers from last year. The DL has all 4 starters back with all 4 being seniors and is clearly the strength of this side of the ball. The LB corps has 2 of 3 starters back but overall this is an average group. The defensive backfield is led by Triston Wade, who led the team in tackles and had 5 PBUs and 2 INTs last year. A very solid secondary. The Special teams also returns all 5 of its key parts and is one of the better units in Conference USA. The Roadrunners are the most experienced team in the nation and should have a solid year in 2014. The Schedule is decent and they should sweep through the home portion of the conference slate, while Road trips to La Tech, Rice and WKU will be challenging. The offense should top the 26.8 ppg they put up last year, while a defense that has 9 senior starters and 2 junior starters on it should be vastly improved over last year’s group that allowed 26.3 ppg. This is the first year that UTSA will be eligible for a bowl game and I see them getting to one, while challenging for a spot in the Conference USA title game vs Marshall. KEY TREND: No Relevant Trends Yet
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs went from 9-3 in 2012 to just 4-8 last year, in what was Skip Holtz first season as HC of the Bulldogs. In fairness, the Bulldogs did have just 7 total starters back last year and now with 13 starters back this year they look to take a step back in the right direction. The Bulldogs averaged 51 ppg back in 2012, but last year with just 3 starters back, they put up a mere 19.2 ppg. That a huge drop-off and much of the problem was inconsistency at the QB spot, where Higgins and Young combined to throw 10 TDs to 15 INTs. Higgins is back, but should take a backseat to Iowa Transfer Cody Sokol, who has the tools to jump start this offense. He does have leading WR Sterling Griffin back from last year, along with a couple of solid recruits and senior Hunter lee. This will be a solid WR corps this year. The running game has it top 4 rushers back from last year, including Kenneth Dixon who has 28 TD’s back in 2012. Last year despite being hampered by injuries, he still ran for 917 yards and 4 TDs. He is healthy now and comprises the best set of RBs in Conference USA. The Defense improved last year, allowing 12.2 ppg less than they did in 2012 and with 7 starters back this year they should be even better, especially with new DC Manny Diaz being hired. Manny was brought in from Texas when he led the Longhorns to the best defense in the Big 12 back in 2011. The Bulldogs lost their top tackler from last year, but have brought back their next 6 tacklers. The Secondary is the strength of this defense, with all 4 starters back, while the DL and LB corps are not far behind. This defense is rated 2nd best in conference USA, and so are the special teams unit as well. Louisiana Tech took a big fall last year, but I feel they have what it takes to turn it back around this year. The offense will not be held under 20 ppg this year, in fact they may progress to nearly 28 ppg for the season. The defense is one of the best in the conference and after chopping 12 ppg off of what they allowed in 2012, they should be even better this year. I will call for a 2nd place finish in the West, especially with a fairly favorable Conference USA schedule. KEY TREND: Skip Holtz is 3-17 SU and 5-15 ATS in his last 20 games vs .500 or better teams.
The North Texas Mean Green had a solid 9-4 season last year, which ended with a 22 point blowout win over UNLV in the Heart of Dallas bowl. This looks like it could be a rebuilding year, as just 9 starts and 27 lettermen are back. Most will say rebuilding, but HC Dan McCarney says reloading. We will see. Gone is QB Derek Thomson, who threw for 2896 yards with 16 TDs and 13 INTs last year, while leading the Mean Green to a solid 31.8 ppg last year. JUCO Josh Greer looks to take over the QB duties, but who will he get the ball to, after their top 2 WRs have departed and just 1 player is back that caught more than 16 passes last year. Carlos Harris is the top returning WR, catching 47 passes for 553 yards last year. The running game loses 1000 yard back Brandin Boyd, but Antionne Jimmerson and Reggie Pegram are back after combining for 784 yards and 13 TDs last year. They will be running behind the top rated OL in the conference and the 26th best in the nation. The defense last year allowed just 17.8 ppg, which was 8th in the nation, but this year just 4 starters are back, including just 1 in the front 7, so they should take a step or two back this year. They did recruit the 15th best LB in the nation in Anthony Wallace, who transferred from Oregon, and that means that the LB Corp will be very solid, but the DL is still one of the weakest Conference USA. The secondary is the clear strength of this defense, with 3 starters back, including James Jones, who had & PBUs and 1 INT last year. I know that some have this team picked higher but I really see a 3rd or 4th place finish in the West at best. They really have lost too much from this team, especially on an outstanding defense. The offense has a strong OL and a couple of decent RB’s but still no proven talent at QB and the WR corps has very little experience. They do have a fairly easy home slate, but road games vs Texas, Rice UTSA and UTEP will be tough. Just too much is lost for me to see them finishing higher than 3rd in the west Division of Conference USA. KEY TREND: 13-1 ATS off BB SU wins vs an opponent off a SU win.
The Rice Owls had a very nice 2013, as they went 10-4 overall, while winning the Conference USA Title with a win over Marshal in the Title game. Their season did end on a sour note, as they lost to Mississippi State 44-7 in the Liberty Bowl. This Year they have to replace some key pieces and the schedule is tough, but they should still make a run at a 3rd straight bowl game. Last year the Owls had one of the best rush offenses in the nation (227 ypg), but that may not be the case this year as they must replace Charles Ross, who ran for 1290 yards and 15 TDs last year. Josh Davis looks to take over the lead role after rumbling for 479 yards and 3 TDs last year, and also in the mix will be Darrick Hilliard, who tallied 396 yards and 3 TDs on the ground a year ago. The OL that these two will be running behind has 3 starters back but is really average at best and there is not allot of depth there. The Owls must also replace QB Taylor McHargue, who threw 17 TD pass to just 8 INTs and also was 3rd on the team in rushing. Driphus Jackson is another dual threat QB and will take over for McHargue. He will have the luxury of have their top 2 wideouts back from last year. The defense for the Owls was pretty average, but this year they could be a bit better. They do lose their top 2 tacklers from last year, but still this will be an experienced group as 7 seniors and 3 juniors make up 10 of the 11 starting spots on this defense and there is a decent amount of depth be hid those guys. Rice went 10-4 last year and their reward is starting off this year with road trips to Notre Dame and Texas A&M. They also have conference road dates very Marshall and Louisiana Tech in their last 3 games of the year, plus have tough home games vs ODU, UTSA and North Texas. Even with an offense that will still produce 25+ ppg and a solid defense it will be hard for rice to really come close to the 10 wins they put up last year. They will not repeat as Conference USA champs, but they still should be in consideration for a bow bid at the end of the year. KEY TREND: 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs UTEP.
After 4 straight bowl appearances and a 12-2 record in 2011, the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles have gone just 1-23 the last 2 years. Last year they played allot of youngsters plus have continuity with HC Todd Monken back for a 2nd year in a row and they have added new OC Chip Lindsey, who was OC at Auburn last year. This should be a much better year for the Golden Eagles. Not only was Chip Lindsey OC at Auburn, but he was also QB nick Mullens coach in high school. That should really help the QB who had a mediocre season last year in 6 starts, but also threw for 370 yards with 5 TDs in a season ending rout of UAB. Mullens will have his top 2 targets back from last year and 4 players overall that caught at least 24 ball on the year. The running game took a hit with the loss of top RB Kendrick Hardy, but their next 2 back return and with some other young talent this should be an improved group. The OL was a mess last year, but they do return 3 starters and have added 2 Juco transfer, so this looks like an improved group. For years the Southern Miss defense was always a solid group, but they have now allowed 37.8 ppg and 41.9 ppg the last 2 years. This year they have 8 starters back in have plugged in some solid Juco transfers, so I would look for a much better showing from them this year. The defensive backfield could struggle some with little depth, but the DL has some good talent, including SR DT Adam Williams (8.5 TFL last year), while the LB corps, led by DeBarrius Miller (92 tackles) and Terrick White (90 tackles), rates as one of the best in conference USA. Southern Miss has had two really bad years in a row, but signs are pointing to them taking a step forward this year. They have continuity at both the HC spot and the QB spot with Nick Mullens. The offense should be vastly improved over last year’s group that put up just 17.1 ppg. The defense will also be improved, thanks to one of the better front 7s in the league. They do have a rather tough schedule, but I do see them bagging at least 4 wins on the year, including 2 in Conference USA. A step in the right direction. KEY TREND: 1-8 ATS as dogs vs an opponent off a SU loss.
The UTEP Miners suffered through an injury plagued 2013 season that saw them go 2-10. The Miners have now won just 5 games the last two years and haven’t had a winning season since 2005. This year 15 starters and 44 lettermen are back, but still this team is a long way from contending for a bowl game. Last year the offense put up 31.7 ppg in their first 6 games and then the injury bug hit the offense and they were able to put up just 12.3 ppg in their final 6 games. Jamiell Showers transferred from Texas A&M last year and had a solid first half of the season, throwing for 1296 yards with 11 TDs and just 4 INTs before getting injured. He is healthy now but who will he throw to as only two players return that had more than 13 catches last year. Really that’s Okay cause this is a run first offense. Last year the run game was also grounded by injuries, but 7 of their 8 top ball carriers from last year are all back, which gives them one of the better run games in the league, but still the OL needs to improve for them to be very effective. The defense has allowed 29.8 ppg or more in 5 of their last 6 seasons and this year’s group looks like it will struggle as well. The OL is young and thin, and while the back 7 is a bit more experienced they are still not all that good, with the LB corps rated as 10th best in conference USA, while the secondary is rated 11th best in the conference. Special teams will be a strength on this team, with both kickers back and KR Autrey Golden. The Miners look like they are in for another long year. Even with 44 lettermen back this team still lacks solid depth and a key injury here or there will derail them all-together. The offense will be better than last year’s group, provided Showers and the running game stays healthy. The defense will improve slightly over last year, but is still one of the worst in Conference USA. The schedule is also very tough and that leaves me with the feeling that they will not top the 2 wins they put up last year. KEY TREND: 0-6 ATS in the 2nd of BB home games.