Before I get to my first play of the year, which is a 2 team 7 pt. teaser that I'm in love with, I want to let the people that haven't followed me before in football know a little more about my type of plays. The following is a post I made in another thread covering this:
I am unlike the other football handicappers in the forum in that I specialize in FCS games. I will have some FBS games during the year but the majority of my plays involve FCS teams. Most of my plays will come out of the Ohio Valley and Missouri Valley Conferences. As far as I know 5dimes is the only one that puts out lines on FCS games. You will need an account at that book. If anyone knows of other books that put them out please let me know. Anyone that is going to follow my plays I suggest that you try and do what I did if you have a local as another out. See if they will use 5dimes lines and put them up for you. The big drawback to betting these FCS games is 5dimes has low limits on opening lines and then will raise them some on game day. The BIG advantage in playing these games is the lines are VERY SOFT. To give you an example. A couple of years ago SEMO opened as a pk at E. Illinois. We fired a big bet on SEMO and by game time the line was SEMO -9. They won by 12. I don't think you'll ever see an FBS line move that much. Last year my record here at pregame was 48-25 65.8% +78.07 units. These games are perfect for your low money players. Big money betters may not think they are worth their time since they can't get down all they want to bet on a game.
Now on to the first leg of the teaser: SAM HOUSTON ST. AT E. WASHINGTON -7 1/2 AUG. 23
On August 23, Sam Houston will play Eastern Washington in Cheney, Wash. in the first game of the 2014 college football season and it will be televised by ESPN. The game will be played five days before the next college football game on the schedule. It will be the first time an FCS game will be the featured nationally televised contest to open the college football season.
I don't know if this was the opening number but I saw this line at one time as Sam Huston St. -3 1/2. Both of these teams are storied FCS programs but I thought that line was way off.
Sam Houston comes into this game with a preseason rank of #14 by the coaches and #17 the Sports Network Top 25. They have had a coaching change as veteran head coach K.C. Keller takes over. In 20 seasons as a head coach at the college level, Keeler owns an overall record of 174-73-1. His teams have made 13 NCAA tournament appearances and eight trips to national championship games. They return 9 starters (6 offense, 3 defense). While losing 13 starters from a playoff team may not look good on the surface, this team usually just reloads.
The strength of the BearKats is on the lines. On offense, they return four starters and has one of the best tackles in the nation in Donald Jackson. On the other side of the line, sophomore Brandon DeWitt is coming off of a great freshman campaign. Also back are senior guard John Trotter and junior center Zachary Stevens, both of whom started all 14 games in 2013. On the other side of the ball, technically the Bearkats return just one starter in tackle Sione Latu, but there is a ton of depth. Fellow tackle Gary Lorance tore his ACL, in the opening game of the 2013 campaign and is back to team up with Latu on the interior of the line. The Bearkats also add Jacobi Hunter, a transfer from Cal. On the ends, Steve York and Mouf Adebo figure to be the starters. But whether they start or not, Sam Houston hopes to be able to rotate quite a few guys through the end spots to keep the unit fresh.
The rest of the defense has some major holes to fill. Linebackers Tanner Brock and Eric Fieilo are gone after combining for 214 tackles. The secondary does return senior free safety Michael Wade and senior cornerback Desmond Fite. However, replacing shutdown corner Bookie Sneed is not a simple proposition. On offense, the losses are huge. Quarterback Brian Bell, running back Tim Flanders and wide receivers Torrance Williams and Richard Sincere have done so much for this program over the last four years. Replicating their production will be nearly impossible, but at least Sam Houston State has options and the talent of the line will not let this offense drop too much.
Eastern Washington (12-3 last season) has both won the Big Sky Conference title and reached the national quarterfinals in three of the last four seasons. They are the Sports Network Top 25 preseason #1 ranked team. They return 11 starters (6 offense 5 defense). Eastern Washington has plenty of experience on its roster, including five preseason All-Americans and 12 returning players who earned All-Big Sky honors last season. Leading the way is junior quarterback Vernon Adams, who finished second in the voting for the 2013 Walter Payton Award as the outstanding FCS player.
This is a very very bad spot for Sam Houston to try and break in a new system under a new head coach. I just don't see any way that EWU loses this feature game at home. That's why I want to tease it down to where the points don't matter.
The second leg of the teaser is EASTERN ILLINOIS AT MINNESOTA -15 AUG. 28
At one time I saw this line at Minn. -33 1/2. I liked EIU at that number quite a bit but like some others didn't want to tie up my money on a future. I believe the big drop in the line is due to an over reaction to how EIU played last year.
EIU opened last season with a 40-19 thumping of San Diego St. Last year they had the top offense in the nation and got to the quarterfinal round of the FCS playoffs where they lost in a blinding snowstorm 49-39 to a VERY strong running team in Towson. Gone are first team All Americans qb Jimmy Garoppolo (N.E. Pats) and wr. Eric Lora. EIU is another FCS school to have a coaching change as they welcome Kim Dameron as their 24th head coach. Dameron spent the 2013 season as the defensive coordinator at Louisiana Tech where he directed a much improved defensive unit. The Bulldogs finished ranked 69th in the nation in total defense under Dameron's direction after being ranked 120th the previous season. Dameron's defense was the fourth most-improved squad in the FBS last season. EIU comes in with a preseason ranking of #16 in the Sports Network Top 25.
Don't look for EIU to put up offensive numbers like they did last year. But they won't be helpless either. Ben Krol, Kentucky transfer Jalen Whitlow and New Mexico State transfer Andrew Manley are the top options to replace Garoppolo under center. Whitlow threw for 1,033 yards and five touchdowns with the Wildcats last season and started eight games. Manley was at EIU last season and was the third stringer behind Krol. Adam Drake will emerge as the new top receiver, after catching 85 passes for 1,305 yards and 13 touchdowns. Keiondre Gober is a big 6-3 pass catcher who totaled 894 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. Add tight end Jeff LePak, who recorded 51 receptions for 723 yards and eight scores. But this offense is not about the passing game anymore, it is about Shepard Little. The running back rushed for 1,551 yards and 15 touchdowns. Backup Taylor Duncan ran for 988 yards and ten touchdowns. EIU should still have a good passing game but look for more emphasis to be put on running the ball this year. Eastern Illinois has big holes to fill on defense too. Six starters are gone, including end Pat Wertz, safety Nick Beard and both starting cornerbacks.
I know Minnesota is a long way from a Big 10 powerhouse but I can't see them losing this game. Coach Kill comes from the FCS ranks and will make his team fully aware of EIU's drubbing of San Diego St. last year. I believe this one will be about a three touchdown win for the Gophers but would like some padding. That's why I'm teasing them down to single digits. I like this one a lot and it will be my biggest wager in wk. 1 for 5*.
2 team 7 point teaser at -120 for 5*. Ties reduce.
E. WASHINGTON -1/2
MINNESOTA -8