This is the 4th of my CFB previews for the year. One more thing, I really did try and not write as much (really I did), but it just didn't turn out that way. Sorry for all the reading. LOL. Nothing out of the ordinary this year. All my own writing, but obviously i did have to do allot of reading (which I have been doing a ton) and the...
Info Gathered For My Previews Have Been Taken From Phil Steels's CFB Preview, Athlon Sports and The Sporting News. Trends are From Marc Lawrence's Playbook.
American Athletic Conference Preview
ACC Conference Preview
Independents Preview
Big 12 Preview (Listed In Projected Order Of Finish)
The Oklahoma Sooners had a very nice 11-2 year a season ago, which ended with a 45-31 Sugar Bowl win over Alabama. Now the Sooners are looking to build off of their late season momentum and take the next step. Which is an invitation to play in the inaugural NCAA Playoff System. The Sooners scored 32.8 ppg on offense last year, with Blake Bell and Trevor Knight sharing the QB duties throughout the year. Trevor, though, solidified the spot coming into this year by guiding the Sooners to wins over Oklahoma State and Alabama to end the year. The Sooners do lose some key pieces on offense, including their top 2 RBs and 3 of their 4 top WR’s, but this team had plenty of depth last year and there are players just waiting to step up and take their turn. RB Keith Ford was rated #7 coming out of HS and this year the Sooners signed the #3 RB out of HS in Joe Mixon and they also have a #15 and a #22 RB on their roster as well. The WR Corps does return its second leading receiver from last year in Sterling Shepard, who caught 51 balls for 603 yards and 7 TDs last year. He will join a plethora of highly touted WRs to give Trevor plenty of targets to throw to. The OL has 3 senior starters back and is rated as one of the best lines in the nation. The defense is loaded with 23 lettermen, including 9 starters back. The LB corps is the strength this team and is rated 9th best in the land. The leaders of this group are Frank Shannon, who led the team in tackles last year (92) and Erik Striker, who led them in sacks (6.5). The secondary ranks 12th in the nation and is led by Zach Sanchez, who had the 13 PBUs and 2 INTs last year. The DL is very strong as well with all 3 starters back and plenty of solid depth. This Sooners team should be an improved group on offense, even though they lost some key pieces. Trevor Knight has a year under his belt and the skill positions are all loaded with highly touted players and everyone will be playing behind an OL this rated 6th best in the nation. The defense rates overall as one of the best in the nation, with big play makers at every level, plus allot of depth as well. The schedule seems very kind, with a soft non-conf schedule and their toughest conference games at home and getting the likes of WVA, TCU, Iowa State and Texas Tech on the road. This team has an excellent shot at running the table, but more importantly they should be all set to grab on of the 4 spots in the playoff bracket. KEY TREND: 9-1 ATS after playing Texas Tech
The Baylor Bears have been on a roll of late, especially last year, in which they went 11-2 on the year, which securing a berth in the Fiesta Bowl. They lost that game but this team is loaded once again and ready to make a run at joining the new NCAA playoff system. The Bears have been an offensive machine, scoring 44.5 ppg or more in each of the last 3 years, which was topped off by last year’s 52.4 ppg overall and 61 ppg at home. The offense figures to be explosive once again with QB Bryce Petty back, after throwing for 4200 yards with 32 TDs and just 3 INTs. Petty has a super array of weapons to throw to, including last year’s leading WR Antwan Goodley, who grabbed 71 balls for 1339 yards and 13 TDs last year. Last year’s leading rusher Seastrunk is gone, but Shock Linwood showed he can step in and do a fine job, after rushing for 881 yards and 8 TDs last year. Also remember that Petty did run for 209 yards and 14 TDs last year. Overall, Baylor has the 2nd best collection of RBs in the league. That running corps will also be running behind a very deep and talented OL that rates 2nd best in the Big 12 and 20th in the nation. The Bears also played good defense last year, allowing just 23.5 ppg overall and 16 ppg at home. This year they have back just 4 starters, but Briles has done a good job recruiting so this defense may not miss too much of a beat the year. The DL lost two starters, but their replacements may be better after Shawn Oakman and Jamal Palmer combined for 23.5 TFL last year as subs. The LB corps is a little weak, but the secondary has some solid playmakers and some good depth as well. The defense does have some question marks in their back seven, but still this will be tough defense, especially with a DL that is one of the best in the league. Even if the defense slips, the Bears still have that amazing offense that will be a threat to put up 45+ points anytime they touch the field. I see this as a national contender team, especially if they beat either Texas or Oklahoma on the road and then win the Big 12. I see them beating Texas, but not Oklahoma and that will keep them from winning the Big 12 title and going to the playoffs in all likelihood, but this team will still have an outstanding year and be fun to watch. KEY TREND: 1-7 ATS last 8 games vs Oklahoma State
Bill Snyder did another solid coaching job last year as the Kansas State Wildcats finished with an 8-5 record and a 17 point win over Michigan in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, despite the fact that he was breaking in a new QB and had just 2 starters back on defense. This year he has 11 starters back, including an experienced QB, plus a solid Juco crop coming in. This could be a very good season in Manhattan this year. Jake Waters will look to build off the momentum he gained in leading the Wildcats to wins in 6 of their last 7 games last year. Bill Snyder has always thrived when having an experienced QB back and Jake is just that, after throwing for 2469 yards with 18 TDs and 9 INT last year. He should be even better this year, especially will a talented WR corps that includes last year’s leading receiver in Tyler Lockett, who grabbed 81 balls for 1262 yards and 11 TDs. The running game took a hit with the loss of 1000 yard back John Hubert, but some solid backs are ready to take over in senior Demarcus Robinson and freshman Dalvin Warmack, who was rated 52 coming out of HS. The OL should be solid again, with the addition of a couple of Jucos, who have a combined 70 starters in their careers, to go along with 1st team Big 12 center BJ Finney. KSU brought back just 2 starters on defense last year and still allowed just 22.9 ppg, which was about the same amount they allowed in 2012 (22.2 ppg). 5 starters are back this year, along with a solid crop of incoming Jucos, so they should better last year’s numbers. Particularly strong will be a secondary that is led by Randall Evans, who has 3 TFL, 12 PBUs and 2 INTs last year. Bill Snyder is an excellent coach and just continues to produce winning teams. This year will be no different, especially with an experienced QB and a very talented group of WRs. The defense has a couple of questions up front, but the defense backfield is very solid and overall this defense should be better than last year. The depth on this team is good, and even better with the Juco additions. They do get Auburn, Texas and Oklahoma State at home, but have to travel to Oklahoma, TCU and Baylor. I can see them losing those three road games, but the rest of the schedule sets up nicely for them and that has me seeing at least 9 wins from them this year. KEY TREND: 10-0 ATS off a conference game vs an opponent that is off BB SU losses.
Gary Patterson is 120-44 in his career as headman of the TCU Horned Frogs, so last year’s 4-8 season was a stunner for this team. This year 16 starters return, while they lose just 18 lettermen overall and that should signify a return to the postseason for this very proud team. TCU had no problems scoring points in the MWC, but since joining the Big 12 they have put up just 28.3 and 25.1 ppg the last 2 years. The Horned Frog brought in a new Co-OC in Sonny Cumbie to help run the offense and he will install an up-tempo offense that should help create more scoring for this team. Parts of this offense have been taken from Mike Leach’s fast paced offense. Matt Joeckel transferred from Texas A&M and looks to have a handle on the QB job. He will have some solid returning talent in Josh Doctson and David Porter, who combined for 875 yards receiving and 9 TDs last year. Also in the mix will be Florida transfer Ja’Jaun Story, who was the #37 WR to come out of HS in 2012. BJ Catolon returns after leading the team in rushing last year, but it looks like the starting nod will go to Aaron Green, who transferred from Nebraska and was the #8 back out of HS in 2012. The OL is decent with 2 starters back this year. The defense is always a staple of this team, but last year they struggled, allowing 25.3 ppg. This year with 8 starters back, they should return to playing the tough defense that TCU has been known for. The DL is stacked and is rated at #5 in the nation. 3 starters are back, including Devonte Fields who missed 9 games last year, while being named Defensive Rookie of the Year back in 2012. The LB corps is another strength and is led by Paul Dawson, who led the team in tackles (91) and TFL (9.5) last year. The secondary has playmakers all over it, including Sam Carter, who led the team in INTs with 5, while also grabbing 4 sacks and 3.5 other TFL. The Horned Frogs are not used to losing seasons under Gary Paterson, but I don’t expect them to stay down for too long. The Offense may take a few games to get acclimated to the new style of play, but by season’s end they should average over 30 ppg for the season. The defense is loaded and is probably the number 2 defense in the league, with playmakers at every level and a top 5 DL in the nation. The early non-conf slate should help this team get going and while their toughest 3 games are at home vs Oklahoma and on the road vs Baylor and Texas. They should do very well in the rest of their schedule and at the very least go 8-4 on the year. KEY TREND: 0-6 ATS their last 6 games after playing Texas.
Mack Brown has stepped down as long time Texas Longhorns coach and in steps Charlie Strong and with him he brings a toughness that the Longhorns have been missing the last few years. Charlie has med a few dismissals and suspensions already and while it may not be a help to the team this year he is setting the standard for years to come. The offense was solid last year, putting up 29.3 ppg, but they have a chance to be better this year, especially is David Ash can stay healthy. Ash did lose WR’s Mike Davis (Graduation) and Kendall Sanders (Suspension), but still Jaxon Shipley and Marcus Johnson return and they have added a #245 WR out of HS in Armanti Foreman. The running games is stacked and is rated 6th best in the nation. Malcom Brown and Jonathan Gray were both rated the #1 RB’s coming out of HS and last year combined for 1684 and 13 TDs. Overall the top 8 ball carriers from last year are all back. This RB corps will operate behind one of the best OLs in the league, that is big strong and with solid depth. The defense for the Longhorns has slipper the last few year, but they have 8 starters back on this side of the ball and just very well may be one of the 5 best defenses in the nation. Cedric Reed is back to lead a DL rated 4th in the nation after having 10 sacks and 9 TFL last year. NT Malcom Brown is back also after having 2 sacks and 10 TFL last year. The LB corps rates as 2nd best in the nation and hopes that senior Jordan Hicks (#1 LB out of HS) can stay on the field after missing much of the last 2 years. The defensive backfield is the weakest unit on this defense, but still rates out at 9th in the nation. Plenty of speed and depth in this secondary. The Longhorns have a new coach and a new attitude this year, but to get there so far they have lost a few pieces to their puzzle. This is an offense that will be better than last year, especially if Ash can stay healthy and the running game produces as expected. Charlie Strong is more known as a defensive minded coach and boy did he land in the right spot, as this Longhorn defense is probable the best in the Big 12, while also being a top 5 defense nationally. This defense is loaded for sure. The Longhorns do have BYU at home and UCLA in a neutral site game in the first 3 weeks of the year, so they need to get off to a good start or the pressure will be on Charlie right away. They get Baylor and TCU at home, but have to travel to Kansas State and Oklahoma State, plus have Oklahoma in a neutral site game. I expect the Longhorns to at the very least match last year’s win total of 8. KEY TREND: 11-1-1 ATS as road dogs of 2 or more if off a SU win.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are off their 3 rd double digit win season in their last 4 years, but are not happy that way last year ended, losing the Big 12 Title on the last game of the season and then losing to Missouri in the Cotton Bowl. This the Cowboy return just 8 starters and lose 28 seniors from last year’s team. Can you say rebuilding? The offense for the Cowboys has put big numbers in recent year’s but may take step back this year, with just 4 returning starters back and no clear cut QB coming out of spring camp. JT Walsh is probably the logical choice for the job, after splitting time with Clint Shelf last year. JT has lost some key WRs from last year, but they have recruited well in this area and there are some solid youngsters ready to step in, including JC transfer Tyreek Hill, who has world class speed. Desmond Roland Was signed as a WR, but ended up being a RB and leading the team in rushing last year with 811 yards and 13 TDs. He will be joined in the backfield by rFr Ra’Shaad Samples, who was the #34 RB coming out of HS. The OL is the strength of this offense, with 3 senior starters in the lineup, including All-Big 12 second team OT Daniel Koenig. The defense was hit harder, as they have just 16 of 31 lettermen back this year. This defense has just 1 of their top 9 tacklers back and that is MLB Ryan Simmons, who had 67 tackles, including 9 for loss. The DL is the most experienced group on this defense, with 3 senior starters and 1 junior starter in the lineup. DT James Castleman leads this group and is on the All Big-12 second team. The secondary has just 1 starter back, and is a very inexperienced group overall, with not much depth. The seniors that just graduated had the best 4 year run of any Cowboy senior group. The Cowboys must now hope that solid recruiting classes they have had the last few years can pay dividends, cause most of those youngsters will be call on here. The Cowboys have just 38 returning lettermen and have been rated as the least experienced team in the Nation. The offense will still put up points, but I don’t see 40+ from them this year, while the defense will take a few steps back after leading the Big 12 in scoring defense last year. This team has slightly above average talent overall with not much depth and will be taking on a schedule that features road games vs TCU, Baylor, Kansas State and Oklahoma, plus a neutral site game vs Florida state to open the season and they get Texas at home. I still see this team playing in a bowl game, but no more than a 7-5 record on the year. KEY TREND: 11-1 ATS the last 12 games played at Kansas.
For the Texas Tech Red Raiders it really was a tail of two seasons, as they started out 7-0 and end with a bowl win over Arizona State, but in the middle of that was a 5 game losing streak. Still the season was deemed a success, but now they have some rebuilding to do if they want to get another bowl bid this year. The Offense has less rebuilding to do than the defense, as they have 9 starters back from a team that scored 35.8 ppg last year. Davis Webb is back after having a solid year last year, throwing for 2718 yards, with 20 TDs and 9 INTs. He does lose his top two receivers from last year, but Jakeem Grant and Bradley Marquez return, after combining for 1429 yards receiving and 13 TDs last year. 5 players in all return that had at least 20 yards receiving last year. Kenny Williams and DeAndre Washington combined for 947 yards and 12 TDs on the ground last year and are both back to lead an average running game. The OL has all 5 starters back which should help the running game. Defense is where this team will struggle this year. They have just 4 starters back on this side of the ball and while they did get a nice influx of Jucos, sometimes that doesn’t always work out. The LB corps is the strength of this unit, led by Peter Robertson, who has 9 TFL last year. The DL is very average, while the secondary will struggle with just 1 starter back and little depth. 2013 was a weird year for this team, but they still liked the results in the end, beating Arizona in the Holiday Bowl. That gives them some momentum heading into this year. The Offense should be very good once again, now that Webb has a year under his belt and some nice weapons at his disposal. Defense is a problem though, as just 3 of their top 9 tacklers are back for them this year. They did raid the Juco ranks for some defensive depth, but t remains to be seen how effective they will be. A rather soft non-conference slate should have them 3-0 before BB road games vs Oklahoma State and Kansas State to open up Big 12 play. They also have to travel to TCU, but do get Oklahoma and Texas at home and Baylor in a neutral site game. This team may just be able to sneak 6 wins out of this schedule, even with a bad defense. KEY TREND: 1-10 ATS as conference dogs of more than 3 vs a better that .600 opponent.
The West Virginia Moutaineers are off their first rough year in a long time, as they went just 4-8 last year overall and 2-7 in the Big 12. This year they lose just 13 lettermen and have back 13 starters, but will it be enough to get them back to a bowl game? Clint Trickett looks like he will start out as the QB this year, after splitting time with Paul Millard last year. Both QB’s were rather average last year, but it looks as if Trickett gives them their best shot to win now. Clint will have the top 3 WR’s back from last year, including big play threat Mario Alford, who averages 20.4 yards per catch on 27 receptions last year. Alford also had 47 yards rushing on 5 carries (9.4 ypc). This year they lose 1000 yard back Charles sims form the running game, but in will step Pitt Transfer Rushel Shell, who is a sophomore and was rated #3 RB when he came out of HS. The Mountaineer also have Demarius smith back, who ran for 494 yards and 5 TDs last year, plus they signed a top 32 RB out of HS in DonteThomas-Williams. The running game should be solid, but the OL is slightly below average, with just 2 starters back. Defense used to be a staple of this team, but they have now allowed 38.1 ppg and 33.3 ppg in their first two years in the Big 12. This year they have 23 lettermen, including 7 starters back on this side of the ball, so I do expect improved play from them this year. The LB corps has all 4 starters back and will be the strength of this defense. It will be led by last year’s leading tackler Nick Kwiatoski, who had 6 TFL last year. Kyle Rose had 8.5 TFL last year and anchors a solid DL, while the secondary will be better with 2 starters and solid playmakers all over it. Dana Holgorson is on a very hot seat right now. The offense has plenty of skill players and if the OL holds up and the QB spot is stabilized then they will easily top the 26.3 ppg they put up last year. The defense has been shredded the last two year, but they had some solid defensive signees, to go along with 23 lettermen back and one of the better LB Corps in the league, so they will improve on that side of the ball. WVA starts the year off vs Alabama and then a few weeks later they travel to Maryland, before their rough big 12 slate. The Mountaineers will probably miss bowl season again, despite the fact that they are better on both sides of the ball. KEY TREND: 11-0 ATS vs an opponent off a SU loss as a favorite.
The Iowa State Cyclones went to bowl games in 2012 and 2012, but last year it all came crashing down with a 3-9 record overall and a 1-7 mark in the Big 12. This year the Cyclones look improved, with 15 starters back and some solid Jucos coming in, but will it be enough to get them back to a bowl game? The offense was decent last year, putting up 24.8 ppg, but will be much better this year with 10 starters back, including QB Grant Rohach, who started the last 4 games for the Cyclones and led them to 2 of their 3 wins on the year. He will have back 6 of the top 7 pass catchers from last year, including Quenton Bundrage, who led the team with 676 yards receiving and 9 TDs. The running game has some decent talent but is not spectacular, while the OL is actually the strength of the offense, with all 5 starters back and some solid depth. The defense is where problems will arise for this team, as they have just 5 starters back from a group that allowed 36 ppg last year. There are some solid Jucos coming in bus still all three units have been rated last in the big 12 by Phil Steele. Still if the Jucos mesh nicely then this defense has enough playmakers to make it a solid unit. The Cyclones are off a tough year and normally this is a team capable of pulling big upsets at least once or twice a year. Not sure it will happen this year, but if the defense can come around some then they have a shot at a shocker or two, especially with this offense that will put up nearly 30 ppg this year. Oklahoma State, Texas, TCU and Iowa on the road, plus home games vs Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State and Texas Tech means a pretty tough schedule is ahead for this team. The offense will do fine, but they just won’t have enough defense to grab more than 3 or 4 wins this year. It’ll be another long year in Ames. KEY TREND: 1-9 ATS after playing Texas Tech.
The Kansas Jayhawks had themselves a rough 3-9 year in 2013, but that was still as many wins as they had the previous two years combined. This year Charlie Weis may have his best team yet, but there are still concerns with depth, as just 32 lettermen return.The Jayhawks averages a mere 15.3 ppg last year, but should improve on that this year with 8 starters back, including QB Montell Cozart, who won the job from Jake Heaps in the spring. Cozart is a dual threat QB and has the skill to run new OC John Reagan’s offense. The WR corps has its top 4 pass catchers back, but still no one on the team returns with more than 24 receptions from last year. Phil Steele actually rats the WR corps as the 2nd best in the Big 12. Not sure about that, but OK. 1100 yard rusher James Sims is gone, but there is still a nice collection of backs returning, including senior Brandon Bourbon, who was a top 50 RB prospect coming out of high school. They have also added a top 40 RB high school prospect this year in Traevohn Wrench. The OL has 3 starters back (all seniors) and should be a solid group. The defense is where this team will need to hang their hats on this year. They have 9 starters back on this side of the ball and have added some solid Juco transfers. The starting defensive lineup consists of all upperclassmen, but depth is an issue on this side of the ball with just 12 lettermen back. Weis is hoping the Jucos can fill the depth void. The Jay hawks were -179 ypg behind the Big 12 last year, -143.2 ypg in 2012 and 218.6 ypg in 2011, so this is a team with allot of ground to make up. The offense will be much better, led by a very good WR corps and a QB that really fits the bill to run Reagan’s offense. The defense has 9 starters back and should be better than last year as well, as long as they can avoid the major injuries, cause they do lack depth. Road games vs Duke, West Virginia, Baylor Oklahoma and KSU, plus home games vs Texas, Oklahoma State and TCU, will make it hard for them to show progress in the standings, even though we will see a much better team than last year on the field. 3 wins again for this team. KEY TREND: 11-2 ATS at home vs Sub .500 opponents.