I have been doing a ton of work on college football and I believe I have found some real value for week 1. There are 7 8 9 games that I like.
I like LSU -3.5, (-115). Part of the reason this line is so off is the fact that LSU loses it's starting QB Zach Mettenberger as well as most of its skill position players. However the fact that Mettenberger didn't exactly wow the NFL scouts and slipped to the 6th round of the draft makes me think LSU is undervalued. What his slippage tells me is that his resurgence in 2013 wasn't necessarily fueled by talent but rather by the tutelage of new offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. Cameron, former Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator, will be back this season for LSU. Either Anthony Jennings or Brandon Harris will get the start against Wisconsin and I'm comfortable with either one of them behind center. Anthony Jennings was a highly recruited QB who played well against Arkansas last season when he filled in for an injured Mettenberger, although he did not look great in the bowl game or spring game. Brandon Harris is another highly rated recruit who impressed coaches in the spring game and is capable of making plays with his legs. The bottom line is that Cam Cameron has plenty to work with.
Another reason why I like LSU and am not overly concerned about their quarterback situation is their offensive line. They return 4 starters on the o-line including both tackles and their center. They lose their leading rusher Jeremy Hill, but with the returning offensive lineman there shouldn't be much of a drop in production from the running back position. In fact it could actually improve. Hill will likely be replaced by Leonard Fournette who is an absolute beast. Fournette was a 5 star recruit out of high school and was rated the number 1 overall running back in the country. They also return experienced rusher Terrence Magee. LSU has recruited well and many expect them to be better on defense this season.
Not only are we buying low with this bet we are also selling high. Wisconsin to me is an overrated team. They have not been recruiting well and simply can't match the talent of LSU. On defense Wisconsin loses it's entire front seven. They bring back most of their secondary but I'm not sure that's a positive considering that was a weakness for them last season. Wisconsin is undersized on defense and are focusing on speed. This strategy will work against lesser opponents but against LSU I believe it is a recipe for disaster. At QB I don't see an advantage for Wisconsin over LSU. Returning starter Joel Stave is a pocket passer and therefore a poor fit for coach Gary Anderson who wants a mobile quarterback to run his system. Tanner McEvoy, who is battling Stave for the starting job, is more mobile but has no experience.
I grabbed LSU at -3 when this line came out in April but I still see value at -3.5 and -4. So go ahead and unload on LSU and then watch these Leonard Fournette highlights on a loop until kickoff. It's what I will be doing.
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: LSU -3.5, -115
I like Texas A&M +10.5 at South Carolina. Texas A&M has become underrated due to the departure of Heisman winner and larger than life personality Johnny Manziel. Head coach Kevin Sumlin runs a solid system and this team will once again be tough to stop on offense despite the absence of Johnny Football. A&M has two excellent candidates battling it out to be the starting QB. Freshman Kyle Allen is a 5 star recruit and number one overall QB with an excellent arm. Sophomore Kenny Hill was also a highly regarded recruit and can make plays with his legs. Trey Williams should get a lot of touches at RB. Williams was a 5 star recruit who averaged 7 yards per rush last season. A&M returns 4 of 5 starters on the offensive line including both tackles and their center. A&M loses Mike Evans at WR but replace him with talented 6 ft 5 Ricky Seals-Jones. Jones was the number 2 overall wide receiver in his recruiting class.
On defense Texas A&M returns 8 starters including all four from the defensive line. Plus they add a talented recruiting class that includes 5 star defensive end Myles Garrett. The bottom line is that this Texas A&M team has more talent than they are getting credit for.
Meanwhile South Carolina will have to replace Connor Shaw at QB which will not be an easy task. Shaw only threw one interception in 284 attempts while throwing 24 touchdowns. Backup/this year's starter Dylan Thompson had a less impressive touchdown to interception ration of 4 to 3. Thompson wasn't highly recruited out of high school and I believe he will struggle as a starter. South Carolina's defensive won't be as strong this season without Jadeveon Clowney who received a lot of attention from opposing teams. This spread is too high. Grab the 10.5.
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: TEXAS A&M +10.5
It's an absolute gift that we are able to bet TENNESSEE -6 in this game. Tennessee is underrated due to the strength of their opponents. Last season their 7 losses were against Oregon, Florida, Georgia (ot), Alabama, Missouri, Auburn, and Vanderbilt (by 4). The Vols lose a lot on offense but return their starting quarterback and have recruited well. They should actually be more productive this season. On defense they have gotten faster and should also be improved. I'll spare you the list of players you have never heard of but trust me when I say Tennessee is more talented than people think.
Utah State is the opposite of Tennessee in that they are overrated due to the weakness of their opponents. They won 9 games last season but they were against Air Force, Weber State, San Jose State, New Mexico, Hawaii, UNLV, Colorado State, Wyoming, and Northern Illinois. Everyone loves their quarterback Chuckie Keeton but keep in mind Keeton is working his way back from a serious knee injury and hasn't been able to put in the time he would normally want with his new cast. And there are a lot of new cast members. Utah State only returns 3 starters on offense. They lose 4 of their 5 offensive linemen. I wouldn't be surprised if Utah State, with a rusty Keeton who may not be on the same page as his receivers, get off to a slow start this season. Facing bigger faster Tennessee on the road is certainly not an optimal way to kick things off. Plus keep in mind Keeton enjoyed the bulk of his success under head coach Gary Anderson, who is now at Wisconsin.
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: TENNESSEE -6
I like RUTGERS +8. This is too many points to give a Rutgers team that returns 9 players on offense including their QB, entire offense line, and backfield. They have upgraded at offensive coordinator adding former Maryland head coach Ralph Friedgen and have a new defensive coordinator who couldn't possibly be worse than the last one.
Washington State's head coach Mike Leach is an offensive genius but he hasn't set the world on fire in terms of recruiting and his defense should be weak again this year. I don't think the typical disadvantage for the east coast team traveling to the west coast applies here as strongly as it usually does considering this is the opening game of the season. Also while this game is being played in Washington it is not being played in Washington State's home stadium. Instead the game will be played in Seattle, which is over 4 hours from Washington State's campus in Pullman.
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: RUTGERS +8
I like VIRGINIA +21.5. Virginia under performed relative to their talent level last season and because of that this line is inflated. Virginia struggled on offense last year and a major reason was the poor quarterback play of David Wattford. Wattford has been benched in favor of Greyson Lambert. This is a classic case of addition by subtraction and they immediately became undervalued when they announced the move. Virginia's defense is capable of being solid. I read a quote from an opposing assistant coach who said at times they can look like the '85 Bears and at times it seems like they want to avoid contact. I don't think the Virginia defense will lack motivation in the opening game of the season against a highly ranked opponent. They will defend UCLA tougher than most people expect. Meanwhile UCLA is a solid team but it's possible with all the Brett Hundley Heisman talk (see the cover of this week's Sports Illustrated) they have become slightly overrated.
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: VIRGINIA +21.5
If I were ever to write one of those gambling manifestos it might very well include a rule saying to never bet a Colorado State-Colorado football game. However rules are meant to be broken and in this neutral site game I like COLORADO -2.5. Colorado had a poor season last year going 4-8 but they played in the Pac 12 which is a tough conference. This will be their second year under head coach Mike MacIntyre who many believe is on his way to turning the team around. They return 7 starters on offense and 7 on defense.
I don't think Colorado State will be as good as they were last season. They lose running back Kapri Bibbs who left early for the NFL. Bibbs ran for 1,741 yards and 31 tds. He will not be easy to replace. Colorado State only returns one starter from the offensive line. With a significantly weaker ground game this season opponents can key in on stopping QB Garrett Grayson and I expect his numbers to go down. I think Colorado State might be overrated because of how they ended the season with a 48 point bowl win against Washington State. When you consider how poor Washington State's defense was plus the fact they only won the game by 3 points in miracle fashion (2 late fumbles by Washington State), the victory seems less impressive.
These two teams opened the season against each other last year with Colorado winning by 14. I see no reason why Colorado won't cruise again this time around.
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: COLORADO -2.5
I like CALIFORNIA +12. Cal is at an all time low right now in terms of public perception due to their 1-11 record but I believe they have more talent on their roster than they are getting credit for. They struggled mightily on defense but have brought in a new coordinator who has simplified things which should help the situation. Cal will have the services of two former top 10 recruits on the defensive line in Brennan Scarlett and Mustafa Jalil. They started a freshman QB last season who should be improved this year now that he has experience.
I read that Northwestern is looking to switch to a pass first type of offensive system from the run focused system it has been using the last 2 years. I don't think the transition will be completely smooth, and it's possible they will struggle early in the season. Plus I also read that their offensive line may be weak this year which doesn't bode well for their new identity.
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: CAL +12
NEPOTISM
One of the great things about sports, as opposed to almost all other areas of life, is the lack of nepotism. It doesn't matter how many connections your parents have or how much money they make. If you can't hit a baseball you're not going to be playing center field for the Yankees. Unfortunately this refreshing departure from favoritism doesn't extend past the field of play. Example 1A: Alabama's new offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin. Lane's father is Monte Kiffin, the influential and legendary defensive coordinator who many believe is the greatest of his generation. I think it's safe to say it's highly unlikely Lane's career would have followed the same path had it not been for his father's influence and assistance. Since he was undeservedly made the head coach of the Oakland Raiders in 2007 he has essentially failed at every stop, including head coaching stints at the University of Tennessee and USC. Here's the most absurd thing about Lane Kiffin: He's an OFFENSIVE coach. If your father is one of the greatest defensive coordinators of all time why not learn from him and specialize in defense? Lane was too proud to follow in his father's footsteps, instead attempting to carve out his own identity. He was a terrible play caller at USC and now he is being handed the reins at Alabama. Why on earth would Nick Saban give him the job? That bring's us to our next definition.
ARROGANCE
There might as well be a picture of Nick Saban next to the word arrogance in the dictionary. Lane Kiffin is obviously a bad choice as offensive coordinator but because Saban is so arrogant he doesn't feel the normal rules apply to him. Saban has deluded himself into believing his program is so strong that it would be impossible for Kiffin to fail there. It's also terrible timing considering Alabama will be breaking in a new quarterback. Which brings me to my next point.
THE QUARTERBACKS
There is no denying quarterback is the most important position on the field in football.
Clint Trickett transferred from Florida State to West Virginia last season and didn't start right away because he was the learning the offense. He got his first start week 5 against Oklahoma State where he played well and WVU won. In that game though he injured his shoulder and played through pain for the rest of the season. This off-season he had his shoulder fixed by Dr. James Andrews. He has since regained arm strength and started throwing exercises. I believe (though I do not have 100% confirmation of this) that Trickett will be fully recovered by the opener and will be WVU's starting QB. Trickett is undervalued by the betting market because he played hurt for the majority of the season. Check out this quote from WVU head coach Dana Holgorsen which basically confirms my thinking on the subject:
Meanwhile Alabama's starting QB AJ McCarron graduated and has moved on to the NFL. Anyone who watched Alabama knows McCarron did more than just manage the game. He won't be easy to replace. From what I am reading it looks like Florida State transfer Jacob Coker is the front runner for the job. I am not overly impressed with Coker. Coming out of high school he was only rated as a 3 star prospect and outside of Florida State, where he was unable to win the starting job, did not have offers from prestigious programs. Compounding the lack of talent and experience at the position is the fact that the new QB will have to work with a brand new offensive coordinator. Alabama is opening the season away from home with a new QB and offensive coordinator who are both downgrades from last season.Speaking of opening the season away from home this game is being played in Atlanta at the Georgia Dome which transitions nicely to my next point of emphasis.
SPEED
This is going to seem counterintuitive but I think the fast track in the Georgia Dome might actually help WVU. Alabama as a team is faster than WVU but Holgorsen has been focused on recruiting wide receivers with a lot of speed. These receivers, Mario Alford, Kevin White, Shelton Gibson, etc will be tough to catch in space on the carpet. Shelton Gibson was a track star in high school and could possibly be the fastest player in college football. The receiving core as a whole has more experience this year. Having experienced receivers is probably more important at WVU than at other schools considering the type of "Air Raid" offense Dana Holgorsen employs. West Virginia loses top rusher Charles Sims to the NFL but their backfield will be better than people expect. They have strong stable of running backs and will add to it with highly touted Pitt transfer Rushel Shell.
IF A TREE FALLS IN DeFOREST...
When it was announced defensive coordinator Keith Patterson was leaving WVU for Arizona State many Mountaineer fans feared control of the defense would go back to Joe DeForest. DeForest is a good friend of Holgorsen's and coached the secondary and special teams at Oklahoma State while the two were there together. Holgorsen expanded DeForest's profile at WVU but DeForest proved inept at running the defense. It was a bad call to turn the defense over to his buddy and Holgorsen realized it. This season he has tabbed Tony Gibson to be defensive coordinator. I don't how Gibson will do but that fact that DeForest won't be running the show is the key point. WVU struggled a lot in the secondary but the quotes I'm reading from Holgorsen suggest they should be improved in that area this year. This is a quote from Holgorsen post spring game: "The athleticism in the secondary between last year and this isn't even close".
FINAL THOUGHTS
For the reasons stated above I believe we have a classic buy low (WVU) sell high (Alabama) situation on our hands. Plus this is essentially WVU's Super Bowl.
I believe Alabama should be favored but 25.5 points is too much.
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: WEST VIRGINIA +25.5
In terms of futures I don't have any super long shots like I did last year with Auburn 400 to 1. However I did take Florida 55 to 1, USC (Southern Cal) 52 to 1, and Texas 63 to 1 for value. I took West Virginia 500 to 1 as a recreational play.
Thanks for reading and enjoy the season everyone!
*8/27* ADDING WAKE FOREST at LA MONROE
I like WAKE FOREST +2. The betting markets absolutely hate Wake Forest in this game and the number has moved to the point where it's +EV to step in and be contrarians. Wake Forest experienced a game changing event with the hire of new head coach Dave Clawson and in the long term they will be better off for it. However in the short term I don't think they will struggle as much as some folks do. Yes they are breaking in a true freshman QB in John Wolford but he has some talent and Clawson was lucky to be able to steal him away from East Carolina when he was hired at Wake. Wake dismissed/suspended running backs DeAndre Martin and Dominique Gibson but I don't it's as big a deal as some have made it out to be. The two combined for 190 rushing yards last season. Martin averaged 3.3 ypc and Gibson 2.6. Orville Reynolds will get the carries and you can make the argument he is the best of the three. Wake will have issues with depth at RB as the season wears on but it shouldn't hurt them too much in the opener. Wake is inexperienced at WR but got lucky with the addition of EJ Scott who transferred from Virginia and will be eligible immediately. Wake has a solid offensive line which will should help with the transition to new skill players. On defense Wake loses most of the front 7 but the replacements were impressive this spring. Wake returns most of its secondary which will be the strength of the defense. Wake lost to UL Monroe last year 21-19 but they were able to move the ball on offense in that game. The problem was they gave up over 400 yards on defense. Clawson is known for having tough teams on defense so I don't think we will see a repeat of what happened last year.
This is a quote from an opposing Sun Belt assistant coach about LA Monroe: "The heartbeat of the team is gone- QB Kolton Browning. That kid was special. To me he was Johnny Manziel No. 2." This makes me think LA Monroe will struggle this year compared to last.
Wake Forest may not have the reputation for recruiting elite talent but they have recruited better players than LA Monroe the past four years and now they have a better coach while LA Monroe loses it's heart and soul. This game opened Wake Forest -7 and it's been bet all the way to Wake Forest +2. That's too big of a swing. Grab the points.
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: WAKE FOREST +2