Here's some brief work I put together after Big Ten media day on Monday for each team in the league. I don't have an official pick yet on who I think will win (Ohio, Wisconsin) but these are just some brief thoughts for each team.
Would love some thoughts from others on this.
Turdue — Purdue will benefit from not having a true road game until October, when they travel to Illinois in their sixth game of the season. Those first five games of the season certainly won't be easy with contests against both Notre Dame and Iowa, who are expected to be Top 25 teams this season. The Boilermakers went to back-to-back bowl games in 2011 and 2012 and have their sights set on getting back to that level again. This year the Big Ten is switching over to the East and West divisions with Purdue playing in the West. Last year Purdue was struggling on both sides of the football, but now they should be able to take some progress steps under Hazell, who is a good coach. They still aren't a bowl team on paper, and it certainly must start with the offense. Purdue averaged just 14.9 points per game last season and have several underclassmen at key positions. The defense also has to be better if Purdue is going to be able to improve. With both sides of the football getting better, expectedly, Purdue has the chance to certainly get more wins this season.
Illinois — Illinois finished with a 4-8 record last season after going 2-10 the year prior. Illinois finished 7-6 in 2010 and 2011, making bowl games in both contests. The past few years, Illinois has definitely taken a step back. The defense last year allowed more than 35 points per game and gave up more than 480 yards per game to opponents. They won just a single game in the Big Ten Conference and need to figure out a way to get better at the point of attack and especially on defense. Oklahoma State transfer Wes Lunt, a big-armed quarterback that takes over for Nathan Scheelhaase, has both accuracy and the talent to make the Fighting Illini a team that can find the end zone this season. The wide receiver corps isn't the best, but there are some new faces in skill positions that could help Lunt and Illinois get better. Tailback Josh Ferguson gives Illinois a chance at making an impact on the ground as well. He ran for nearly 800 yards and seven TDs last year. Illinois wants to play in a bowl game and the only way they can do that is to get better defensively. We think the offense will be good enough to win them some games, now the defense has to do its part for this team which has a lot of youngsters on it.
State University of New Jersey — Rutgers doesn't play a single team this season that was on their schedule a year ago. Joining a new league can be tough at times and this year's Rutgers team could have a lot of troubles, but does have some winnable games on the schedule. Kyle Flood enters his third year at the helm of the Scarlet Knights, having led the squad to two straight bowl games. During the past three years Rutgers has collected 24 wins. They return nine players that saw significant time on offense, led by quarterback Gary Nova. He's going to have to improve if Rutgers is going to be successful in their new conference, which is bigger, faster, stronger and much better than the American Athletic Conference. All in all, Rutgers is bringing back 16 starters. Are they fully ready for a schedule that includes road games at Michigan State, Nebraska and Michigan State? They'll also play Michigan, Penn State and Wisconsin at home this year. Their schedule is tough and while the defense is stable, the offense needs to make sure they can score points. Tailback Paul James should fit in nicely to the Big Ten caliber at that position, but the Scarlet Knights need to improve the run blocking up front. They averaged just 3.7 yards per carry last season. If they replicate that number this year, it will be a long season.
Maryland — Maryland has improved each year under head coach Randy Edsall, going from just two victories in 2011 to seven wins last year, but falling in the Military Bowl to Marshall. This team has a lot of talent coming back, but playing in a much tougher conference will certainly wear them down. Nine starters return to the field on both sides of the football, which certainly gives them some depth to work with in 2014. The problem, however, is that they won just three games in the ACC last season, which outside of Florida State and Clemson, wasn't nearly as good as the Big Ten. Senior quarterback C.J. Brown and wideout Stefon Diggs give the Terps weapons at key positions. Brown can be a dual-threat guy and does get his top-six receivers back from 2013. But unless they get the defense to play better, Maryland will have a less than stellar season. If they are able to pick up wins in their non-league games, they very well could make a bowl game.
Indiana — Indiana hasn't played in a bowl game since the 2007 Insight Bowl, when they gave up 49 to Oklahoma State. Prior to that, the Hoosiers played in eight other bowl games, the first being the 1968 Rose Bowl, a 14-3 loss to USC. Can this year's team reach the goal of getting to a bowl game? Indiana won just one game in 2011, claimed four in 2012 and won five games last season. They have a handful of winnable games early in the schedule, but then it gets very difficult. The Big Ten East features Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio and Penn State to name a few, all of which are on the schedule for the Hoosiers this season. Tre Roberson and Nate Sudfeld return for their junior years at quarterback. Both guys spend a lot of time on the field and it has proven to work for Indiana. The Hoosiers had no problems on offense last season, averaging 38.4 points per game. That certainly is good enough to win games — but remember that Indiana lost seven contests last season. Hard to believe. The defense is to blame. The Hoosiers gave up an average of 38.8 points and 527.9 yards per game last season. If Indiana can get to the Iowa game at 4-1, they have a shot at going bowling this season. If they stumble in any of their winnable games, they won't.
Northwestern — Last year the Wildcats were a dismal 5-7, not making a bowl game. In Pat Fitzgerald's previous four years at the helm of the Wildcats they went to four bowl games, finishing 10-3 after the 2012 season. The Wildcats messed around with starting a union this season and were the focal point of many this off-season. How will Fitzgerald and the Cats attack this season? Like they are punching the clock each and every day or like they are still student athletes? That remains to be seen. The Cats will be banking on QB Trevor Siemian, who threw for 11 touchdowns last season and completed nearly 60 percent of his passes. They'll have a two-headed attack at running back with Venric Mark and Treyvon Green. Maybe the best part of Northwestern is the return of all five starters on the offense line, however. They should be able to protect Siemian and allow the Wildcats to have a successful campaign in the Big Ten West. An extremely tough stretch for the Cats begins on October 18 — Nebraska at home, at Iowa, Michigan at home, at Notre Dame and at Purdue. Those give games might determine whether Northwestern ends with a winning season.
Iowa — Iowa will play in the Big Ten West, which on papers looks like the easier division in the conference. This year could be the year Iowa steps up and shocks people, much like they did back in 2009, when the Hawkeyes finished 11-2. Iowa should be favored in every game this season, up until their final two meetings of the year. The Hawkeyes will still host both Wisconsin and Nebraska in their final two regular season games and both have been tabbed as finishing higher in the division. But, Iowa could have a steamroll amount of momentum built up by that point in the season and did beat Nebraska last season by three touchdowns in Lincoln. The offensive line should be good, Jake Rudock will be solid behind center for the Hawkeyes and Kevonte Martin-Manley is a dynamic star. Last year he averaged 15.7 yards per punt return as well. Don't forget Iowa tailback Mark Weisman, who is a bull at his position. He nearly reached 1,000 yards last season and we expect him to have an even better season in 2014. Iowa's defense has a chance to be very good as well. They are led by All-Big Ten tackle Carl Davis, a senior. The West won't be good enough to cause Iowa problems all season. If the Hawkeyes can keep from turning the football over they'll be a solid club this season. We expect them to play in a decent bowl game.
Penn State — James Franklin will win at Penn State. O'Brien was able to win games by just looking to change the culture around there. In his two years, which no doubt were the darkest in Penn State's history, O'Brien won 15 games but bolted for greener pastures in the NFL. Some say he was always destined to end up back there anyway. In his two years at Penn State he was able to somewhat stabilize the program that was losing players left and right. But many still stuck around and Penn State, albeit still on a bowl ban, is a team that can win some football games this season. There isn't a lot of depth on the squad, but they do have solid players. Sophomore QB Christian Hackenberg showed a lot of poise and growth last year, proving he can play major college football at a high level. Penn State will look to continue to be a balanced offense under Franklin, running the rock with Zach Zwinak despite having a re-tooled offensive line. If the defense can play well, Penn State will win football games this season. Franklin will continue to build solid recruiting classes and it won't be long before the Nittany Lions escape the shadow of a past terror and begin to rebuild its image.
Minnesota — Jerry Kill has built the Gophers from a 3-win team into back-to-back bowl appearances. They were inconsistent early in 2013 but did manage to win eight ball games. This year they have an All Big-Ten caliber running back with David Cobb, who ran for better than 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns last year. At the quarterback position will be Mitch Leidner, a sophomore. He takes over for Phillip Nelson, who decided to transfer to Rutgers. If Leidner can put up some decent numbers and be accurate with a solid Gopher receiving corps, they are going to score points this season. Defensively they will want to continue to stay stout. They surrendered just 22 points per game last season, which was fourth best in the Big Ten. They return seven starters from last season, so they will have some familiar faces and depth. They'll have to get better at getting to the quarterback, however. Because of that the secondary struggled, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 61 percent of their passes. Minnesota has a chance to be pretty special this season. They have winnable non-conference games and could get back to eight wins again, or more.
Wisconsin — Gary Andersen loved the spread-open style of game while at Utah State, but that just isn't going to work at Wisconsin. The Badgers line it up, run the rock and win football games. They picked up nine victories a season ago and the schedule could have them win at least that again this year. They'll play three straight home games after LSU before hitting the road at Northwestern the first week in October. Certainly road tilts at Rutgers and Purdue aren't scary, either. Wisconsin will look to juniors Joel Stave (QB) and Melvin Gordon (RB) to lead the offense and score points for the Badgers. Stave connected for 62 percent of his passes last season while Gordon ran for better than 1,600 yards — which led to a 7.8 yards per carry. Wisconsin always finds a guy to tote the rock if needed, and although the depth there isn't what it's been in the past, they should be fine. The receiving group also lacks some solid depth, but Wisconsin always gets solid play at that position as well. Defensively, Andersen said his team will have more speed this season. They will need to stay stout this season and if they do, Wisconsin is going to win a lot of games. The offense will run the ball, not turn it over and control the clock. Outside of a couple of tough games, we think they are going to be very tough to beat.
Nebraska — Road games will be the toughest thing for Nebraska. Games at Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin and Iowa will determine how good this team can be. People in Lincoln are always talking about Pelini not meeting their standards, but he's won 58 games in his seven years, 48 of which have come the last five years with three 10-4 seasons. Senior tailback Ameer Abdullah might be the best back in the Big Ten and he spurned the NFL to return for his senior season. Last year he ran for almost 1,700 yards on the ground and nine touchdowns. He averaged 130 yards on the ground per game. The big question for the Huskers will be who starts at quarterback. Tommy Armstrong got Nebraska to a 7-1 record last year after starter Taylor Martinez went down with an injury. He's not the best quarterback in the league but he proved to be serviceable for the Huskers last year. The Nebraska defense has to be better. A season ago they gave up an average of 25 points per game, which has to be better. They gave up 18 more points in the fourth quarter last year than they were able to score themselves. They certainly have a lot of nice talented players, but the uncertainty at quarterback could be a problem. If Armstrong can do his thing and the defense can shore up some things, a favorable Nebraska schedule could have them playing in the Big Ten title game.
Michigan — Michigan's defense gave up an average of nearly 27 points per game last season, which obviously wasn't good enough for them to get a whole lot of wins. But it's worth noting they gave up 43 to Penn State, 47 to Indiana and 42 to Ohio. They were vulnerable up front and it affected the rest of the team. Black Countess is one of the best at his position in the Big Ten and Raymon Taylor, who will play on the other side, is turning into the player Michigan believed he could be. The secondary should be just fine this season, especially with all-world recruit Jabrill Peppers seeing the field this year as well. Fifth-year senior Devin Gardner will be the quarterback, don't read into any "quarterback controversy" stories. Consistent quarterback play from him will go a long way to helping this team win football games. Michigan didn't run the ball well at all last year, and that will be another question mark going into this season with uncertainty on the offensive line. They averaged just 3.3 yards per carry last year, which ranked 102nd best in the country. The Wolverines have several play makers at that position and on offense, but have not been able to play up to their potential. Devin Funchess is moving out to wide receiver and A.J. Williams is going to be a very good tight end for the Maize and Blue. It's obviously a year with a lot of scrutiny ahead, starting with their opening game against Appalachian State. We all know what happened there. With tough road games at Notre Dame, Michigan State, Northwestern and Ohio, the Wolverines will have to get wins in a couple of them if they want to finish in the top half of the Big Ten East.
Michigan State — Last year Michigan State shocked the country by winning 13 games, including a Rose Bowl win over Stanford. They have potential All-America candidates on both sides of the football and have them in the right positions. Having a defensive guru in Pat Narduzzi certainly helps, as he could have left to take a head coaching job. Shilique Calhoun leads the defense, a returning All-American from last year. The defense should have no problems again this season, but they do have to replace Max Bullough, leading tackler Denicos Allen and Darqueze Dennard at corner. If MSU can make these transitions to the new players at each position well, they are going to be elite again. Last year State surrendered just over 13 points per game to opponents, including 28 each to Nebraska and Indiana. Offensively Connor Cook is the quarterback and State's best option at that position. He hurled 22 touchdown passes last year and could be primed for another successful campaign. At tailback is Jeremy Langford, one of the best tailbacks in the league. He rushed for more than 1,400 yards last year and 18 touchdowns. He's a bruiser and if the Michigan State offensive line can be solid in front of him, State will continue to run over opponents. They're going to play defense, control the clock by running the rock and contend for a Big Ten title. They won't win at Oregon, but they could be 7-1 hosting Ohio on November 8 against the Buckeyes.
Ohio — Ohio has been dominant in the Big Ten since Meyer came to town. They'll probably have more of the same this season with an easy schedule and a Heisman contender in quarterback Braxton Miller. The Buckeyes will play only four road games this season, taking on Maryland, Penn State, Michigan State and Minnesota. Key games at home, including Virginia Tech, Cincinnati and Michigan, will determine if Ohio is going to have another season with very few losses. Miller accounted for 36 touchdowns last season. He threw for better than 2,000 yards and ran for better than 1,000 yards last season as well. The Bucks will have to replace Carlos Hyde, who rushed for better than 1,500 yards last year but Ohio has a stable full of guys that should be ready to step up. The receiving corps is solid and even though the offensive line is a bit shaky, they so have some options there. Defensive line will be the key for Ohio as they return four starters, including All-America candidate Michael Bennett. Noah Spence had 14.5 tackles for loss last year and eight sacks. Up front on defense, the Buckeyes are going to be stout. The secondary, however, will have some inexperienced players. There are several solid players there, but the Buckeyes will have some growing pains there early on. But they should solidify quickly to give Ohio a formidable unit. There's no denying that Ohio is loaded with talent and they're probably the best overall team in the Big Ten. They're going to battle with Michigan and Michigan State for the Big Ten East title, but the Bucks might be the best overall team in the conference.