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Vegas History: Florida St. vs. Miami-Fl

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Thread Starter Vegas History: Florida St. vs. Miami-Fl
RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 14794
Rank NA
Top 25 Contributor

Florida St -21 vs Miami-Fl:
Biggest spread in history between undefeated Top 10 teams this late in season!

Only TWO other instances of a double digit favorite when two undefeated Top 10 teams play this late in the season:
*Texas favored by 12 hosting Oklahoma State (10/25/2008)
*Miami-Fl favored by 11 vs. Ohio State (2002 BCS Title Game)
[database goes all the way back to 1980]

Does this fact make you like the favorite or underdog?

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Bruno Bets
Joined: 11/08/2011
Posts: 34052
Rank NA
Top 10 Contributor

No chance I can back the dog here. I have FSU -20.5. Having said that, if the line does somehow hit +24 I will try and middle it.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB119101454.091273.00
lrcredneck85
Joined: 12/05/2012
Posts: 5531
All Pro
Top 100 Contributor

hmmm, texas won by 4

ohio st won outright by 7 in double ot

I still like the favourite in this one

MLB 2014 Regular Season

32-36-3

-0.15 units

*record does not include college baseball or softball

**it looks like I already screwed up my record in my picks but I will be as diligent in possible in keeping that up as close as possible, though my units and record here will be from my posted plays and the lines that I actually played them at.

Mikejw
Joined: 03/22/2013
Posts: 1435
Professional
Top 500 Contributor

Here's the deal. the look ahead line was 14 at the LVH on Friday morning, so FSU is now 7 points better after one game?

Bruno Bets
Joined: 11/08/2011
Posts: 34052
Rank NA
Top 10 Contributor

I do like the Hurricanes, but I do think that they are way over-ranked.....shouldn't be a Top 10 match-up (and probably isn't really).....

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB119101454.091273.00
elijah83
Joined: 11/15/2009
Posts: 794
Pro Draft Prospect
Not Ranked

Nope I have FSU#2 93.5 Mia#18 78.5 in my ratings.

Yahoo CFB Pickem ATS Champ 168-111 60%

2011 Pregame Hilton 48-37 56%

2012 Pregame Hilton 52-33 61%

2013 Pregame Hilton  45-39-1 53%

All-Time NFL              145-109-1 57%

sleepyj
Joined: 11/01/2012
Posts: 9891
All Pro
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"FSU could be a national champ team..they are #2 and #3 in the polls"...Heisman QbB..Viscious defense..."beat Clemson bad in Clemson on National Tv"......."Eww Miami stinks"...yea they didnt beat anybody..almost got beat by Wake Forest..."Even if they do win they wont play for a title"...."u gotta bet FSU"...they prob blowout Miami...."Miami is overrated"........They set the line at 21 for a conf game, 2 undefeated teams....these teams are rivals...21points...I forgot Clemson defense is better than MIAMI..wait i think Miami defense is # 11 in the nation.....I like MIAMI getting the points...16.5 i think is true..they seem to be getting twice..if not 3 times..if u back FSU....granted FSU can win and cover...and so can MIA

2014 B.O.T.H Basketball Champion (127-81)  61% Documented

Grandevegas
Joined: 05/25/2012
Posts: 888
Pro Draft Prospect
Not Ranked

Anytime you get two teams with identical records, and one team laying 7 or more pts, for the most part, please take the favorite. Seen it time and time again this season. This means that the two teams are not equal. If they were, the spread wouldnt be so big. Vegas just wants to split that action by giving Miami 3TDS. Florida st will blow them out. Ez...!!

neilvuong
Joined: 10/20/2011
Posts: 2215
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Bruno Bets

I do like the Hurricanes, but I do think that they are way over-ranked.....shouldn't be a Top 10 match-up (and probably isn't really).....

Agree, the Canes is far from being a top 10 team. FL State will expose it this Saturday

jaaquino01
Joined: 10/06/2011
Posts: 101
Prep School
Not Ranked

Just my thoughts on this game..

Personally I thought this line would have opened in the 17 point range even though I think Miami's ranking is misleading.  Yes they are undefeated, also a very weak schedule thus far.  Miami was very fortunate against Florida, I remember that game well having Florida.  Several very poor timed turnovers.  The final score against an average GT team is misleading as well, that was a close game until GT took a poop in the fourth.  Miami then needed fourth QTR comeback wins to beat two poor teams in UNC and Wake. I credit them for coming back, but really it should not have come to that.  Morris to me has not been good this year, his receiving group is not as good as it has been.  Miami WR's could  have trouble with a physical Florida St secondary that could be one of the best in the country.

Having said that I could see Miami staying in this game if they commit to a very conservative approach on offense and the defense finds a way to get to the Florida st QB.  Miami has the talent on defense to give them a chance, but they are not going to be able to hold Florida St down the whole game.  They have some guys on the D line that maybe can find a way to pressure the QB and force some bad decisions.  I think in Miami's last two games the coaching staff seemed to be not wanting to give QB Morris too many opportunities to make bad decisions.  They were pretty conservative against Wake, probably because they knew they could be.  I have always liked the Miami's coach defensive approach.  He wants to put his defense in positions to succeed, and does everything to keep his teams in the game.

I personally thought Clemson was going to give Florida St a much better challenge, thought Florida St would win a close game.  I hammered Clemson on the in-running when they were down early in the first QTR.  At the time I felt great about getting Clemson +17.5 before the first QTR even ended.  Feeling like Clemson was just a little unlucky early, but of course we know how that ended.  Clemson though played right into what Florida St wanted by not having or really attempting any running game and forcing Boyd into some tough plays.  Boyd also obviously made some really bad decisions that just kept the Florida st steamroll going.  I have to think Miami's approach in this game is going to be to run early and often to try and keep Florida St off the field.  I expect them to try and keep this game much slower than what Florida St wants.

I also take into account the fact that most of the country saw that Florida St, Clemson game when it was only a 3.5 to 5 point line, this line seems to be a bit of an over-reaction in that aspect.  What if Clemson and Florida St could play again at Florida St?  What would the line be?  What would a Miami at Clemson line be?  I do not really know I just think that there is some inflation in this line.  The odds-makers have been really trying to catch up to this Florida st team as they have been a covering machine (just missed the cover last week, depending on your line).  Let us not forget that they really have not played that tough of a schedule (about 32 on SOS rankings).  But they have been just destroying teams and covering these large spreads.  I am of the belief that the books are still trying to catch up so they are adding that into the line for the favorite.  

Bottom line, I think Florida St wins but does not cover 22.  I do not think Miami is a top 10 team, but I do think they have a top ten QB and some players that will play with a chip on their shoulders.  I like both coaches, but think the story after this game will be how Miami's D kept the Florida St QB in check (relatively).  The books have not been able to make the Florida st lines high enough, they are continuing to try and it still seems to be one sided on the favorite.  This will be the best Defensive line that Florida St has faced, probably the best Defense.  Miami has 3 guys on the D line that are very good and won't be pushed around easily (I think they are all playing although have not really looked into it).  They may find a way to get to the Florida St QB and force him into some bad decisions, lets not forget that he is still young and has not really had to perform in a tough spot.

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