THE TIME IS NOW
Coming off the heels of what I believe are two amazing futures bets (Kansas to win the college basketball national championship before the Wiggins announcement at 25 to 1 and the Indians to win the World Series at 80-1) I realized I probably have an innate ability when it comes to futures wagering. It's likely a genetic (God given) talent combined with environmental factors (years spent following sports and betting) combined with my passion, which can not be taught, that allows me to be so successful at finding value in futures.
I quickly realized I needed to take advantage of this talent to its fullest so I focused all of my energy on finding a profitable college football future to wager on. I am happy to report that the mission has been accomplished and I have found a wager that I couldn't possibly be more excited about. The time is NOW to make your college football futures wagers, before the season previews are out and the talking heads start making the rounds and everyone's focus turns to college football.
I am proud to announce that I bet the University of Southern California (hereinafter 'USC') to win the 2013-14 national championship at 60 to 1 and I will tell you why.
THIS TEAM IS LOADED
Trust me I know what you're thinking. "Dub, are you really betting USC? That is such a square bet, they are so overrated". Normally you would be right. This year you are wrong. USC is coming off a 7-5 year including a bad bowl loss. Public perception is at an all time low. Essentially USC is in the bargain bin and we are loading up on them. This team has a ton of talent. In 2009 they had the number 4 recruiting class in the country. In 2010 they had the number 1 recruiting class in the country. In 2011 they had the number 4 recruiting class in the country. In 2012 they had the number 8 recruiting class in the country and in 2013 they had the number 13 recruiting class in the country (they were hit with scholorship reductions so while the class is small it is chock full of blue chippers who can make an impact this year, keep in mind we aren't betting them to win in 2015). This team has elite talent that can easily compete with anyone in the country. Because I'm not lazy we are going to take a look at the actual players who will be responsible for us making a score with this ticket.
USC has 3 potential starters at QB. The old saying goes something like 'if you have more than one quarterback you have no quarterbacks'. Usually this is true (no one qb is good enough to solidify the starting spot) but this USC team is the exception. All 3 QBs are blue chippers that any other school would be drooling over. Max Wittek, who played in Barkley's absence last year was ranked as the third overall QB in his recruiting class with offers from Florida, Florida St, UCLA, and host of other schools. The most impressive QB during USC's spring game was Cody Kessler. Kessler was the second ranked QB in his recruiting class. Alabama went after him hard but he chose USC. USC's third QB battling for the starting job may actually have the most talent of them all. Max Browne is thought of as USC's QB of the future and was ranked as the top QB and 7th overall best player in his recruiting class with offers from elite programs all across the country. USC will be more than fine with whoever ends up starting for them and will be more than fine if they suffer an injury at the QB position. I will insert some video so you can get a feel for them.
Here is some cool practice footage of Wittek:
Here is some footage of Kessler doing drills:
Here are some of Max Browne's high school highlights:
The Running Backs
Silas Redd returns at RB for USC after averaging 5.4 ypc last season and scoring 9 tds. Redd was the fourth ranked RB coming out of high school and played 2 years for Penn St. before transferring to USC. What's interesting about USC's rb situation is that as good as Redd is there is a chance his backup, true freshman Justin Davis might get significant carries this season. Davis had offers from Florida State, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame coming out of high school and has really impressed the coaching staff this spring. Also both players who saw action at fullback last year are returning.
Here are some Silas Redd highlights from 2012:
Here are Justin Davis's highlights from his senior year in high school. Some of these runs are absolutely ridiculous including the one at roughly the 2:20 mark.
As of right now Marqise Lee is considered the top WR in college football and is projected to be the top WR taken in next year's draft. Last year Lee had 117 receptions for 1721 yards and 14 TDs. He returns for his Jr season (because he has to) and will be a match up nightmare for any defense he faces. Also returning for USC is its tight end Xavier Grimble and third leading receiver Nelson Agholor.
Check out Lee doing his thing, it's impressive.
The Offensive Line
My research indicates last year's 5 starters on the offensive line were Waker, Martin, Holmes, Martinez, and Graf. 4 of the 5 starters will be back with only Holmes leaving, due to graduation.
The Defensive Line
The defensive line was considered one of USC's major strengths last season. My research indicates their starting defensive line consisted of Breslin, Williams, Uko, and Horton. 3 of the 4 starters return including Morgan Breslin who was considered the best player on the line.
The linebackers were also considered a strength for USC last year and were regarded as the best in the Pac 12. The three starters were Pullard, Dawson, and Bailey who all return.
The secondary only returns 1 starter so this will be the unit the relies most heavily on newcomers. Here's the the thing though, the guys battling for spots are all pretty much elite recruits who could start for almost any other school.
The kicker (Andre Heidari) is back but the punter is gone. Replacing Kyle Negrete will be Kris Alabarado who is a redhshirt sophomore and was rated 4th best at his position coming out of high school.
The schedule sets up perfectly for USC. Their first 5 games of the season before their bye in week 6 are against Hawaii, Washington St, Boston College, Utah St., and Arizona St. That is the perfect start to the year schedule wise for a team who will be breaking in a new QB. Oh and get this...Oregon isn't on USC's schedule! That's right USC and Oregon don't play this year (unless they meet in the conference championship game). I was shocked when I realized this but since the Pac 10 expanded all the teams don't play each other every year.
USC's toughest conference game will be against Stanford but they get them at home late in the season. USC's toughest non conference game is at Notre Dame but I think USC will win that one and even if they don't they could still play for the national championship with 1 loss if they win the Pac 12 championship. Even if they face Oregon in the Pac-12 championship I like USC's chances with Chip Kelly gone.
LOCATION LOCATION LOCATION
So let's say USC makes it to the national championship game, how far would they have to travel? The answer: not very. The national championship game will be played at the Rose Bowl, which is located in southern California, not far from USC's campus.
I have never coached football so I am not capable of performing a level 1 analysis but everything I have read tells me USC is in good shape. One of the main reasons USC had a down year was their defense. WELL supposedly Monte Kiffin was unable to adjust to the spread offense. Kiffin coached for years in the NFL with a defense that was not designed to stop the spread. He was simply unable to make the necessary adjustments that were needed to stop the offenses in the Pac 12. Here's the good news: Monte Kiffin is out as defensive coordinator. In his place is former Cal defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast. Pendergast runs a more felxible 3-4 defensive that is better suited for stopping the spread offense. USC's talent combined with this new system could potentially produce fantastic results. How much of a plus will Pendergast be? I can't say for sure, but at the very least he won't be a net negative like Monte Kiffin was. Oh yea and Pendergast's specialty is the secondary, the area USC most likely needs the most coaching at.
So many factors are lining up for us: The talent, the schedule, the coaching change on defense, the location of the national championship game, and most importantly the price. USC should not be 60-1. I am considered by many to be a true visionary and there is no better market than the futures market for a visionary to take advantage of. Take USC at 60 to 1 and tell your bookie DubV said to ship it. You will be thanking me on January 7th.
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Great report dub, BOL with the trojans.
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Unless you have Nick Saban in your Death Pool and are looking to grab a correlated parlay with him croaking and USC you are just pissing all the Kansas money away Dub.