TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team’s home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.
To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:
Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:
Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power, which includes Bettor Bias, the same way the actual Vegas line does.
CFB Vegas Rankings – Week 13
Vegas Rankings voters include Chris Andrews (with over 30 years of Nevada bookmaking experience), and “Vegas Runner” (featured by ESPN, CBS This Morning, and CNBC for his professional betting success).
RJ Bell is the founder of Pregame.com - Follow on twitter: @RJinVegas
RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegasSunday: My Pro Bettor Dream Podcast - NFL Week 12 Deep Dive
Chris Andrews Personal Numbers (@AndrewsSports)
Vegas Runner's Personal Numbers (@VegasRunner)
If you follow these points, the two biggest spread differences are Ohio St and Tennessee.
Ohio St is 8.5 - 9 pts better with the spread down to -3
I was still playing if it was -5 since this is their bowl game and undefeated, playing rival, at home, vs young QB on the road not tested. People are giving MI to much credit here. Don't understand the line movement unless some early big betters took the ML on MI +5 then they want the money to even out. I see a 30-24 game.
Tennessee played well at times this year. Showing up vs NCSt, SC, and Mizzu. Last week with the spread being -3 to Vandy, they got whipped and the coach was fired. You see this all the time. KY is bad! And this game went from -15 to now -13. This is golden for me. I see TN playing hard at home to get their first SEC victory and pride. I see like a 34-14 game here. Tennessee is 19 points better on the stats.
Ohio St and Tennessee are the only games over 5 points better than their opponent looking at the current spread. I seen some games that are 4 points difference but mainly a coin flip. I capped these games all week and am very confident making a parlay TN-13, OSU-3, and FSU ML. 1:3.7 odds