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CFB Vegas Rankings: Dedicated Thread Week 13

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Thread Starter CFB Vegas Rankings: Dedicated Thread Week 13
RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 15461
Rank NA
Top 25 Contributor

TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.

HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team’s home field.

BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.

POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.

To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:

Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).
To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:

Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power, which includes Bettor Bias, the same way the actual Vegas line does.

CFB Vegas Rankings – Week 13 

 

 

Hm
  Field

TRUE
  Power

Bettor
  Bias

Spread
  Power

1

Alabama

5

100

2

102

2

Oregon

6

99

2

101

3

Florida State

4

94

0

94

4

Texas A&M

4.5

93

0

93

5

LSU

5

92.5

0

92.5

6

Kansas State

4.5

92

0

92

t7

Georgia

4

91.5

0

91.5

t7

Oklahoma

5

91.5

0

91.5

t7

Notre Dame

4

91.5

2

93.5

t10

Clemson

5

89.5

0

89.5

t10

Florida

4

89.5

0

89.5

t12

Oklahoma St

4.5

89

0

89

t12

South Carolina

4.5

89

0

89

t14

Stanford

4.5

88

0

88

t14

Ohio State

5

88

1.5

89.5

16

USC

3.5

87.5

0

87.5

17

UCLA

4

86.5

0

86.5

18

Nebraska

4.5

86

0

86

t19

Oregon State

4

85.5

0

85.5

t19

Texas

4.5

85.5

0

85.5

21

Michigan

4.5

84

0

84

22

Wisconsin

5

83.5

0

83.5

23

Utah State

3.5

83

0

83

24

Boise State

4.5

82.5

0.5

83

25

TCU

4.5

82

0

82

Vegas Rankings voters include Chris Andrews (with over 30 years of Nevada bookmaking experience), and “Vegas Runner” (featured by ESPN, CBS This Morning, and CNBC for his professional betting success).

 RJ Bell is the founder of Pregame.com - Follow on twitter: @RJinVegas

RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegas
Tuesday: Raise your sports betting IQ 10 points in 10 minutes: College Football | NFL

RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 15461
Rank NA
Top 25 Contributor

Chris Andrews Personal Numbers (@AndrewsSports)

[alphabetical]

Team Rating Home Field
Air Force 69 4
Akron 53 2
Alabama 99 5
Arizona 81 4
Arizona State 78 4
Arkansas 75 5
Arkansas State 72 4
Army 59 3
Auburn 62 4.5
Ball State 72 2
Baylor 79 3.5
Boise State 80 4
Boston College 63 4
Bowling Green 66 3
Buffalo 59 2.5
BYU 79 5
California 69 4.5
Central Florida 76 4.5
Central Michigan 60 3
Cincinnati 76 4
Clemson 88 5
Colorado 49 2
Colorado State 55 3
Duke 69 2
East Carolina 67 4
Eastern Michigan 58 2
Florida 87 4
Florida Atlantic 62 2
Florida International 67 3
Florida State 92 4
Fresno State 77 3.5
Georgia 90 4
Georgia Tech 77 4
Hawaii 46 5
Houston 63 4
Idaho 46 2.5
Illinois 58 3.5
Indiana 67 3
Iowa 65 4.5
Iowa State 73 3.5
Kansas 62 3
Kansas State 90 4.5
Kent State 71 2.5
Kentucky 59 3
Louisiana 72 3
Louisiana-Monroe 68 3.5
Louisiana Tech 76 4
Louisville 78 3.5
LSU 90 5
Maryland 60 1
Marshall 62 3.5
Massachusetts 47 2
Memphis 50 2
Miami, Fla 75 3
Miami, Ohio 60 3
Michigan 81 4.5
Michigan State 78 3
Middle Tennessee 65 3
Minnesota 66 3
Mississippi 77 3
Mississippi State 80 3.5
Missouri 75 4.5
Navy 68 3.5
Nebraska 83 4.5
Nevada 70 4.5
New Mexico 58 2
New Mexico State 48 2
North Carolina 78 4
NC State 73 4
North Texas 59 3
Northern Illinois 77 4
Northwestern 77 3
Notre Dame 89 4
Ohio U 67 3.5
Ohio State 85 5
Oklahoma 90 5.5
Oklahoma State 88 5
Oregon 98 6
Oregon State 84 4.5
Pitt 72 3.5
Penn State 80 5.5
Purdue 64 2
Rice 64 3
Rutgers 75 3.5
San Diego State 74 3
San Jose State 75 2.5
South Alabama 57 3
South Carolina 87 4.5
South Florida 68 4
Southern Miss 54 2
SMU 67 3
Stanford 86 4.5
Syracuse 79 3
TCU 79 5
Temple 66 3.5
Tennessee 74 4.5
Texas 83 4.5
Texas A&M 92 4.5
Texas State 58 2.5
Texas Tech 76 4
Toledo 71 3.5
Troy 66 4
Tulane 55 2
Tulsa 77 3.5
UAB 55 2.5
UCLA 85 4
U Conn 67 4
UNLV 58 3
USC 85 3
Utah 74 5
Utah State 82 3.5
UTEP 59 3.5
UTSA 54 3
Vanderbilt 76 3
Virginia 69 3
Virginia Tech 75 5.5
Wake Forest 64 3.5
Washington 77 3.5
Washington State 60 3.5
West Virginia 79 3
Western Kentucky 70 2
Western Michigan 63 3.5
Wisconsin 81 5.5
Wyoming 60 3

RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegas
Tuesday: Raise your sports betting IQ 10 points in 10 minutes: College Football | NFL

RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 15461
Rank NA
Top 25 Contributor

Chris Andrews Personal Numbers (@AndrewsSports)

Alabama 99 5
Oregon 98 6
Florida State 92 4
Texas A&M 92 4.5
Georgia 90 4
Kansas State 90 4.5
LSU 90 5
Oklahoma 90 5.5
Notre Dame 89 4
Clemson 88 5
Oklahoma State 88 5
Florida 87 4
South Carolina 87 4.5
Stanford 86 4.5
Ohio State 85 5
UCLA 85 4
USC 85 3
Oregon State 84 4.5
Nebraska 83 4.5
Texas 83 4.5
Utah State 82 3.5
Arizona 81 4
Michigan 81 4.5
Wisconsin 81 5.5
Boise State 80 4
Mississippi State 80 3.5
Penn State 80 5.5
Baylor 79 3.5
BYU 79 5
Syracuse 79 3
TCU 79 5
West Virginia 79 3
Arizona State 78 4
Louisville 78 3.5
Michigan State 78 3
North Carolina 78 4
Fresno State 77 3.5
Georgia Tech 77 4
Mississippi 77 3
Northern Illinois 77 4
Northwestern 77 3
Tulsa 77 3.5
Washington 77 3.5
Central Florida 76 4.5
Cincinnati 76 4
Louisiana Tech 76 4
Texas Tech 76 4
Vanderbilt 76 3
Arkansas 75 5
Miami, Fla 75 3
Missouri 75 4.5
Rutgers 75 3.5
San Jose State 75 2.5
Virginia Tech 75 5.5
San Diego State 74 3
Tennessee 74 4.5
Utah 74 5
Iowa State 73 3.5
NC State 73 4
Arkansas State 72 4
Ball State 72 2
Louisiana 72 3
Pitt 72 3.5
Kent State 71 2.5
Toledo 71 3.5
Nevada 70 4.5
Western Kentucky 70 2
Air Force 69 4
California 69 4.5
Duke 69 2
Virginia 69 3
Louisiana-Monroe 68 3.5
Navy 68 3.5
South Florida 68 4
East Carolina 67 4
Florida International 67 3
Indiana 67 3
Ohio U 67 3.5
SMU 67 3
U Conn 67 4
Bowling Green 66 3
Minnesota 66 3
Temple 66 3.5
Troy 66 4
Iowa 65 4.5
Middle Tennessee 65 3
Purdue 64 2
Rice 64 3
Wake Forest 64 3.5
Boston College 63 4
Houston 63 4
Western Michigan 63 3.5
Auburn 62 4.5
Florida Atlantic 62 2
Kansas 62 3
Marshall 62 3.5
Central Michigan 60 3
Maryland 60 1
Miami, Ohio 60 3
Washington State 60 3.5
Wyoming 60 3
Army 59 3
Buffalo 59 2.5
Kentucky 59 3
North Texas 59 3
UTEP 59 3.5
Eastern Michigan 58 2
Illinois 58 3.5
New Mexico 58 2
Texas State 58 2.5
UNLV 58 3
South Alabama 57 3
Colorado State 55 3
Tulane 55 2
UAB 55 2.5
Southern Miss 54 2
UTSA 54 3
Akron 53 2
Memphis 50 2
Colorado 49 2
New Mexico State 48 2
Massachusetts 47 2
Hawaii 46 5
Idaho 46 2.5

RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegas
Tuesday: Raise your sports betting IQ 10 points in 10 minutes: College Football | NFL

RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 15461
Rank NA
Top 25 Contributor

Vegas Runner's Personal Numbers (@VegasRunner)

ALABAMA 5.5 100
OREGON 6 99
FLORIDA ST 4 97
LSU 5 96
KANSAS ST 4.5 95
NOTRE DAME 4 95
TEXAS A&M 4.5 94
GEORGIA 4.5 93.5
FLORIDA   4.5 93
CLEMSON 4.5 93
OKLAHOMA 4.5 92.5
OHIO ST 4.5 92
SOUTH CAROLINA 4 91
USC 4 91
NEBRASKA 4 90
STANFORD 5 90
TEXAS    4.5 89
OKLAHOMA ST 4 89
MICHIGAN 4.5 88.5
UCLA 3.5 88
OREGON ST 3.5 87
WISCONSIN 4.5 87
BOISE ST 5 86
TCU 4 86
PENN ST 4 85
TEXAS TECH 4 85
NORTH CAROLINA 3.5 84.5
MISSISSIPPI ST 3.5 84
MICHIGAN ST 4 84
LOUISVILLE 3 83
FRESNO ST 3.5 83
BYU 4.5 83
LOUISIANA TECH 3.5 82
CINCINNATI 3 82
RUTGERS 3 82

RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegas
Tuesday: Raise your sports betting IQ 10 points in 10 minutes: College Football | NFL

miami024
Joined: 10/04/2012
Posts: 207
Jr. College
Not Ranked

If you follow these points, the two biggest spread differences are Ohio St and Tennessee.

Ohio St is 8.5 - 9 pts better with the spread down to -3

I was still playing if it was -5 since this is their bowl game and undefeated, playing rival,  at home, vs young QB on the road not tested. People are giving MI to much credit here. Don't understand the line movement unless some early big betters took the ML on MI +5 then they want the money to even out. I see a 30-24 game.

Tennessee played well at times this year. Showing up vs NCSt, SC, and Mizzu. Last week with the spread being -3 to Vandy, they got whipped and the coach was fired. You see this all the time. KY is bad! And this game went from -15 to now -13. This is golden for me. I see TN playing hard at home to get their first SEC victory and pride. I see like a 34-14 game here. Tennessee is 19 points better on the stats.

Ohio St and Tennessee are the only games over 5 points better than their opponent looking at the current spread. I seen some games that are 4 points difference but mainly a coin flip. I capped these games all week and am very confident making a parlay TN-13, OSU-3, and FSU ML. 1:3.7 odds

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