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Thread Starter Vegas Rankings: CFB - Week 11 Dedicated Thread
RJ_Bell
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Posted
on Sun, Nov 4 2012 10:15 PM

TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.

HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team’s home field.

BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.

POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.

To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:

Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).
To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:

Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power, which includes Bettor Bias, the same way the actual Vegas line does.

CFB Vegas Rankings – Week 11 

 

 

Home
  Field

TRUE
  Power

Bettor
  Bias

Spread
  Power

1

Alabama

5

100

2.5

102.5

2

Oregon

6

97

2.5

99.5

3

Florida State

4

92.5

0

92.5

4

Kansas State

4.5

91.5

1

92.5

5

LSU

5

91

0

91

6

Oklahoma

5

90.5

0

90.5

7

Georgia

4

89.5

0

89.5

t8

Texas A&M

4.5

88.5

0

88.5

t8

Notre Dame

4

88.5

0

88.5

10

Clemson

5

88

0

88

11

Florida

4

87.5

0

87.5

t12

USC

3.5

86.5

0.5

87

t12

Ohio State

5

86.5

0.5

87

14

South Carolina

4.5

86

0

86

15

Oklahoma St

4.5

85.5

0

85.5

16

Oregon State

4

83.5

0

83.5

17

Nebraska

4.5

82.5

0

82.5

t18

Michigan

4.5

82

0

82

t18

Stanford

4.5

82

0

82

20

Texas

4.5

81.5

0

81.5

t21

UCLA

4

80

0

80

t21

Louisville

3.5

80

0

80

t21

Texas Tech

4

80

0

80

t24

Boise State

4.5

79.5

0.5

80

t24

North Carolina

4

79.5

0

79.5

Vegas Rankings voters include Chris Andrews (with over 30 years of Nevada bookmaking experience), and “Vegas Runner” (featured by ESPN, CBS This Morning, and CNBC for his professional betting success).

RJ Bell is the founder of Pregame.com (@RJinVegas)

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RJ_Bell
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Posted
on Sun, Nov 4 2012 10:17 PM

Vegas Runner's Personal Rankings (@VegasRunner)

ALABAMA 5.5 100.5
OREGON 6 99.5
LSU 5 96
FLORIDA ST 4 96
KANSAS ST 4.5 95
NOTRE DAME 4 94.5
FLORIDA    4.5 94
OKLAHOMA 4.5 94
CLEMSON 4.5 93.5
GEORGIA 4.5 93
TEXAS A&M 4.5 92
USC 4 91.5
OHIO ST 4.5 91
SOUTH CAROLINA 4 90
STANFORD 5 89.5
NEBRASKA 4 88
MICHIGAN 4 88
TEXAS    4.5 87.5
OREGON ST 3.5 87
OKLAHOMA ST 4 87
TEXAS TECH 4 86.5
LOUISVILLE 3.5 86
LOUISIANA TECH 3.5 86
MISSISSIPPI ST 3.5 85.5
NORTH CAROLINA 3.5 85
WEST VIRGINIA 4.5 85
WISCONSIN 4.5 84.5
BOISE ST 5.5 84
TCU 4 84
MICHIGAN ST 4 83
RUTGERS 3 83
BYU 4.5 82.5
UCLA 4 82
ARIZONA 4 82
ARIZONA ST 4 81.5

---

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RJ_Bell
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Posted
on Sun, Nov 4 2012 10:20 PM

Chris Andrews Personal Rankings (@AndrewsSports)

Alphabetical

Team Rating Home Field
Air Force 69 4
Akron 56 2
Alabama 102 5
Arizona 80 4
Arizona State 80 4
Arkansas 75 5
Arkansas State 70 4
Army 60 3
Auburn 62 4.5
Ball State 68 2
Baylor 76 3.5
Boise State 80 4
Boston College 62 4
Bowling Green 66 3
Buffalo 61 2.5
BYU 79 5
California 74 4.5
Central Florida 76 4.5
Central Michigan 60 3
Cincinnati 79 4
Clemson 88 5
Colorado 48 2
Colorado State 51 3
Duke 70 2
East Carolina 67 4
Eastern Michigan 55 2
Florida 88 4
Florida Atlantic 59 2
Florida International 66 3
Florida State 93 4
Fresno State 77 3.5
Georgia 90 4
Georgia Tech 73 4
Hawaii 46 5
Houston 65 4
Idaho 50 2.5
Illinois 61 3.5
Indiana 69 3
Iowa 68 4.5
Iowa State 75 3.5
Kansas 60 3
Kansas State 92 4.5
Kent State 71 2.5
Kentucky 59 3
Louisiana 72 3
Louisiana-Monroe 69 3.5
Louisiana Tech 78 4
Louisville 80 3.5
LSU 91 5
Maryland 60 1
Marshall 61 3.5
Massachusetts 43 2
Memphis 45 2
Miami, Fla 75 3
Miami, Ohio 60 3
Michigan 82 4.5
Michigan State 79 3
Middle Tennessee 65 3
Minnesota 65 3
Mississippi 75 3
Mississippi State 79 3.5
Missouri 76 4.5
Navy 69 3.5
Nebraska 83 4.5
Nevada 71 4.5
New Mexico 58 2
New Mexico State 49 2
North Carolina 80 4
NC State 72 4
North Texas 59 3
Northern Illinois 78 4
Northwestern 75 3
Notre Dame 88 4
Ohio U 71 3.5
Ohio State 85 5
Oklahoma 91 5.5
Oklahoma State 87 5
Oregon 98 6
Oregon State 84 4.5
Pitt 75 3.5
Penn State 78 5.5
Purdue 63 2
Rice 62 3
Rutgers 73 3.5
San Diego State 74 3
San Jose State 74 2.5
South Alabama 57 3
South Carolina 87 4.5
South Florida 70 4
Southern Miss 55 2
SMU 67 3
Stanford 81 4.5
Syracuse 74 3
TCU 80 5
Temple 63 3.5
Tennessee 76 4.5
Texas 82 4.5
Texas A&M 89 4.5
Texas State 55 2.5
Texas Tech 80 4
Toledo 71 3.5
Troy 66 4
Tulane 57 2
Tulsa 75 3.5
UAB 57 2.5
UCLA 82 4
U Conn 66 4
UNLV 60 3
USC 87 3
Utah 77 5
Utah State 79 3.5
UTEP 58 3.5
UTSA 52 3
Vanderbilt 75 3
Virginia 66 3
Virginia Tech 75 5.5
Wake Forest 65 3.5
Washington 76 3.5
Washington State 68 3.5
West Virginia 79 3
Western Kentucky 70 2
Western Michigan 67 3.5
Wisconsin 79 5.5
Wyoming 59 3

 

 

 

 

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RJ_Bell
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Posted
on Sun, Nov 4 2012 10:21 PM

Chris Andrews Personal Rankings (@AndrewsSports)

From Best to Worst

Alabama 102 5
Oregon 98 6
Florida State 93 4
Kansas State 92 4.5
LSU 91 5
Oklahoma 91 5.5
Georgia 90 4
Texas A&M 89 4.5
Clemson 88 5
Florida 88 4
Notre Dame 88 4
Oklahoma State 87 5
South Carolina 87 4.5
USC 87 3
Ohio State 85 5
Oregon State 84 4.5
Nebraska 83 4.5
Michigan 82 4.5
Texas 82 4.5
UCLA 82 4
Stanford 81 4.5
Arizona 80 4
Arizona State 80 4
Boise State 80 4
Louisville 80 3.5
North Carolina 80 4
TCU 80 5
Texas Tech 80 4
BYU 79 5
Cincinnati 79 4
Michigan State 79 3
Mississippi State 79 3.5
Utah State 79 3.5
West Virginia 79 3
Wisconsin 79 5.5
Louisiana Tech 78 4
Northern Illinois 78 4
Penn State 78 5.5
Fresno State 77 3.5
Utah 77 5
Baylor 76 3.5
Central Florida 76 4.5
Missouri 76 4.5
Tennessee 76 4.5
Washington 76 3.5
Arkansas 75 5
Iowa State 75 3.5
Miami, Fla 75 3
Mississippi 75 3
Northwestern 75 3
Pitt 75 3.5
Tulsa 75 3.5
Vanderbilt 75 3
Virginia Tech 75 5.5
California 74 4.5
San Diego State 74 3
San Jose State 74 2.5
Syracuse 74 3
Georgia Tech 73 4
Rutgers 73 3.5
Louisiana 72 3
NC State 72 4
Kent State 71 2.5
Nevada 71 4.5
Ohio U 71 3.5
Toledo 71 3.5
Arkansas State 70 4
Duke 70 2
South Florida 70 4
Western Kentucky 70 2
Air Force 69 4
Indiana 69 3
Louisiana-Monroe 69 3.5
Navy 69 3.5
Ball State 68 2
Iowa 68 4.5
Washington State 68 3.5
East Carolina 67 4
SMU 67 3
Western Michigan 67 3.5
Bowling Green 66 3
Florida International 66 3
Troy 66 4
U Conn 66 4
Virginia 66 3
Houston 65 4
Middle Tennessee 65 3
Minnesota 65 3
Wake Forest 65 3.5
Purdue 63 2
Temple 63 3.5
Auburn 62 4.5
Boston College 62 4
Rice 62 3
Buffalo 61 2.5
Illinois 61 3.5
Marshall 61 3.5
Army 60 3
Central Michigan 60 3
Kansas 60 3
Maryland 60 1
Miami, Ohio 60 3
UNLV 60 3
Florida Atlantic 59 2
Kentucky 59 3
North Texas 59 3
Wyoming 59 3
New Mexico 58 2
UTEP 58 3.5
South Alabama 57 3
Tulane 57 2
UAB 57 2.5
Akron 56 2
Eastern Michigan 55 2
Southern Miss 55 2
Texas State 55 2.5
UTSA 52 3
Colorado State 51 3
Idaho 50 2.5
New Mexico State 49 2
Colorado 48 2
Hawaii 46 5
Memphis 45 2
Massachusetts 43 2

---

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miami024
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Posted
on Tue, Nov 6 2012 9:35 PM

Would Miami be a good play since they are at 75 and Virginia at 69? Mia gets 6 pt advantage and the spread is at Mia +2 or +1 right now. Tricky tricky! I seen K St with a huge pt differential vs TTU being only favored by 7.5 and on the point stats by like 13-14 point advantage and it was a blow out. Don't wanna miss Miami if this seems to follow the trend.

mobig wins
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Posted
on Wed, Nov 7 2012 11:02 AM

I love this kind of stuff. Thank You
grsveinson
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Posted
on Fri, Nov 9 2012 9:19 PM

Its a trap bet line has moved from Mia -2.5 to UVA -1.5 sharps are betting heavy on UVA
RJ_Bell
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Posted
on Sat, Nov 10 2012 8:31 AM

college gameday bump

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