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2012 COLLEGE FOOTBALL | WEEK 2

Off a shaky 5-3 Opening Week
(6-3, when we including a clean CFL Teaser Win)

PRIMARY LESSON LEARNED FROM WEEK ONE:

TAKE HEED:
Bowl-quality, well-coached underdog teams’ in openers
w/4+ weeks of preparation, on road or otherwise,
Even vs. ranked, seemingly ‘watertight’ teams
(i.e., Virginia Tech | South Carolina | Michigan State)
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Sat Sep 8, 2012 |  3:41 PM, EDT | ABC Regional, ESPN-3
Michigan Stadium | Ann Arbor, Michigan

AIR FORCE FALCONS (1-0)
#19 MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (0-1 | 0-1 ATS)

Air Force is clearly a team NO ONE relishes playing
Especially Out-of-Conference

Big Blue faces the dreaded AFA Triple-Option Wishbone
Just a week after Michigan was kicked around by Hi-Powered Tide

Falcs should be Cannon-Fodder for Wolves… on the surface

Air Force is THE most Inexperienced Team in 2012 FBS
Facing initial road test of 2012
In Big House vs. ranked & irritable A-Q Team 
AFA brings just 6 Starters back from a robust 7-6 Team, just 3 on D

So this is a contrarian play; yet one worth the $

On Defense, Air Force should still be darn good
AFA starts 2 Soph’s on the 3-4 D-Line,
YET, w/9 of Falcons 11 Defensive Starters are Upperclassmen &
AFA’s system allows for them to be remarkably sturdy,
Despite nearly always landing near the very bottom among returners

In fact, AFA only brought back 8 Last Year,
Yet AFA was MOST consistently competitive vs. RANKED &/or Bowl Teams
AIR FORCE Played w/#14 TCU (35-19)
Played straight up AT Boise State (37-26) &
Never really got rolled (Lost 59-33 at ND, game got away late)

Michigan is coming home, looking to get healthy & get back in W-Column
Even though MICH gains the services of stars,
RB Fitzgerald Toussaint
TE Brandon Moore

Wolves sustained serious Defensive blow vs. Tide
MICH CB Blake Countess tore his ACL vs. Bama, and is out for the year

Moreover, UM is seeking answers
It may take several quarters for Michigan to shake the dreaded Air Force Falcons
AFA’s Wishbone, crack-back blocking is a DC’s NIGHTMARE

On top of all this
MICH QB Denard Robinson is coming off a confidence-testing game
MOST, if not ALL FBS QB’s struggle vs. the dynamic Tide D
Yet, MICH Robinson hasn’t been forced to regroup from a 11-26-Type Game
Since LAST YEARS’ 11-24 Passing vs. Notre Dame

Robinson & the Wolves responded w/31-3 & 28-7 Wins (& COVERS)
HOWEVER, Robinson DID take a few games to get back in the Grove
Robinson was a lackluster 15-35 in those next two games
Robinson also struggled w/INT’s following the ND comeback (6 INT over 4 Games)

AFA was and IS an underrated Pass Defense
Falcons were 3RD best Pass-D in the Air-Express MW
Again, AFA LB’s & DB’s are ALL 4TH & 5TH Yr Experienced Players

Lastly, if AFA has a BIG weakness, it may lie in somewhat undermanned D-Line
The AFA supposed QB weakness is likely misstated
Air Force will clearly miss Multi-Year Starter, Option Master, QB Tim Jefferson 
AF’s 5TH Yr Senior, QB Conner Dietz has seen more than mop-up action
Dietz: Very good runner; clearly doesn’t possess arm of Jefferson (strength/accuracy)

Lastly, field-level reports from Arlington
Reveal Michigan’s Overall Line Strength ‘weaker than expected’
Even though Tide is dominate force on BOTH DL’s & OL’s
Alabama players, staff & highly commonly report
Michigan’s Lines’ were entirely pushed around
Bama overall line strength was pervasive;
Tide found it far easier to push Michigan around than they’d expected 

Really seeing a 24-13 or 30-17 type Michigan Win

2 UNIT
AIR FORCE +21 (5-Dimes)
MICHIGAN
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Sat Sep 8, 2012 |  7:00 PM, EDT | SEC-TV, FSN Regional
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium | Oxford, Mississippi

TEXAS-EL PASO MINERS (0-1 | 1-0 ATS)
MISSISSIPPI REBELS (1-0)

Sincerely look at UTEP Team & Game much like last week
Miners are up against it this season, w/an especially lethal schedule

Brings us to hard-to-believe stat of the week:
(Had to look this up, because I couldn’t believe it)

Mike Price is entering NINTH YEAR at Texas-El Paso
Thus, Mr. ‘Stripper-Stew’ has been hustling W Texas for 2 full recruiting cycles

Truth-be-told, Price’s initial two 8-4 seasons gave promise
Yet, Miners haven‘t had a winner in Half-Decade-Plus, &
2012 is thought to be THE pivotal year for Price & his Miners

Mike Price has again fallen UNDER .500
Over an ‘Illustrious’ 23-Year Head Coaching Career 

So get ready for the REAL Mike Price
‘Miner Magic’ may supplant Price’s “Coug it’

We’ve see Price work near miracles in during his pressure years in Pullman
UTEP really looks to be simmering under the Radar
Miner QB Sr Lamison is as underrated as any in FBS &
UTEP’s Rush Game was consistent & quite productive last week
UTEP gave #3 OU quite an extended work out last week
Miners were TIED 7-7 MID 3 RD Qtr as HUGE +30½ Home Dog
As indicated, UTEP Rushed for OVER 200 Yards vs. OU’s sturdy Front-7

Mississippi could get their legs under them quickly
MISS HC Freeze Returns to Oxford
After 1 flashy 10-2 year at Ark St

Miss is arguably has the MOST room for improvement in SEC
Nowhere to go but UP
Offensively, Ole Miss was downright dismal in 2011
The Rebels closed the Season scoring 6½ PPG over their Last 4 Games
Now Miss starts JC Transfer QB Wallace in his first D-1 Start

UTEP may not pull this out,
Yet like Miners to make it awfully close

2 UNIT
TEXAS-EL PASO +8½ (sportsbook.ag)
MISSISSIPPI
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PAC-12 Play-of-the-Week

Sat Sep 8, 2012 |  7:02 PM, EDT | ESPN-TV
Tiger Stadium | Baton Rouge, Louisiana

#3 LSU TIGERS (1-0 | 0-1 ATS)
WASHINGTON HUSKIES (1-0 | 0-1 ATS)

U-Dub is (again), a well-steamed program this year
LSU’s issues are well-chronicled, w/Honey-Badger dismissal, ect

Bottom Line:
WASHINGTON’s Defense has simply not improved
If anything, UW is smaller & far less experienced
Than Husky Team that allowed 37 PPG over last ½ Season &

Washington Defense
Ranked #109 of 120 Teams in ‘Clutch Game Time’ numbers
(Combined RED-Z, 3RD & 4TH Down | & Key Down/Distance factors)

Washington’s claim-to-greatness lies in
UW QB Price-led, ‘high-powered, dynamic Offense’

This high-octane offense was #7 PAC-12 Yardage last year &
LOST #3 PAC-12 Rusher (C Polk)
UW Offensive & Running Game received additional setback
As Dawgs’ heard expected bad news Monday
UW RB Jesse Callier is lost for Season (KNEE)

Is beset w/OL & DL injuries also
QB Price backside protection was especially damaged last week
UW lost OL Ben Riva w/broken arm

Managed ONE Offensive Score as
2 TD Home Favorite Last Week
(Washington 21 San Diego State 12)

UW lost 3 RD Leading WR from 2011, James Johnson
(Lost during Fall Camp; dislocated Wrist & Surgery)

LSU is not likely to hold back vs. Washington
(as Tigers did vs. N Texas in Week 1)

LSU HC Les Miles is keenly aware what this Game vs. UW represents 
i.e., much higher-profile, National TV Game
LSU vs. a 2011 Bowl Team (Washington)  
Especially since UW has a smashed up Running Attack
w/QB Price likely to have little run-support & fewer WR Targets
Price keys in on #1 Target (TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins) more than ever

Moreover, WASH is consistently weak vs. POWER TEAMS
(Except Sark’s former team, So Cal) 
     UW 2010 vs NEBRASKA (L 21-56)
     UW 2010 vs STANFORD (L 0-41)
     UW 2010 at OREGON (L 16-53)
     UW 2011 at NEBRASKA (L 38-51 ATS Win)
     UW 2011 at STANFORD (L 21-65)
     UW 2011 vs OREGON (L 17-34 ATS Win)
     UW 2011 at SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (L 17-40)
     UW 2011 vs BAYLOR (L 56-67)

Simply believe Huskies are Tiger-Bait here.
LSU runs away by 44-13, 49-17 type score

Play-of-the-Week
3 UNIT
WASHINGTON
LSU -24 (sportsbook.ag)
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TEASER #1

Sat Sep 8, 2012 | NOON, EDT | ABC Regional TV, ESPN-3
Scott Stadium | Charlottesville, Virginia

VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (1-0)
PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (0-1 | 0-1 ATS)

Sat Sep 8, 2012 | 3:40 PM, EDT | SEC-TV Networks
Bryant-Denny Stadium | Tuscaloosa, Alabama

WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS (1-0)
#1 ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE(1-0 | 1-0)

UVa remains a formidable Defense, especially vs. Run
UVa allowed 28 Yards (vs. FCS William & Mary last week)

Cavs wore down a little late season last year
Under grip of run-strong ACC Heavyweights

Penn State is said to be stuck in ‘decompression mode’ it appears

Lean w/UVa to cover
Yet really like teased under much better

Also, Like a ‘Bama to coast past WKy

Week 2 Letdown tendencies just too strong to take Tide
Especially w/this many points…? 
Not going to eat that many pts)

1 UNIT | 6½-POINT TEASER (-120 | 5-Dimes)
VIRGINIA
PENN STATE | UNDER 52
To
WESTERN KENTUCKY
ALABAMA -32
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TEASER #2

Sat Sep 8, 2012 | 3:41 PM, EDT | ESPN
Kyle Field | College Station, Texas

#24 FLORIDA GATORS (1-0)
TEXAS A&M AGGIES

Sat Sep 8, 2012 |  3:35 PM, EDT | BIG-TEN Network
Kinnick Stadium | Iowa City, Iowa

IOWA STATE CYCLONES (1-0 | 1-0 ATS)
IOWA HAWKEYES (1-0 | 0-1 ATS)

1 UNIT | 6½-POINT TEASER (-120 | 5-Dimes)
FLORIDA +7½
TEXAS A&M
To
IOWA STATE
IOWA | UNDER 55½
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LEAN PLAYS:

½ UNIT
INDIANA -14 (5-Dimes)
MASSACHUSETTS
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½ UNIT
MIAMI-FLORIDA +230 (Bet Online)
#21 KANSAS STATE
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½ UNIT
NORTH CAROLINA -10 (BH | -120 sportsbook.au)
WAKE FOREST
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Loose-Change Parlay (5-Dimes)

0.2 UNIT (8 to 1 Payout | sportsbook.ag)
HOUSTON +145
To
TEXAS-EL PASO +260
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Likely more to come.
All the best, guys.