WKY(+3.5) vs ULL The only factor I'm looking at is the let down factor. ULL played FLA to the wire before losing on a blocked punt. I think they are gassed!
Tennessee +4 @ Vandy
This is getting absurd w/ the Vol program and now playing a 4 pt. dog to Vandy. Don't recall this ever happening and UT usually lays it on the dores pretty good d/t state baggin' and recruitin'.
I know big orange has officially shit the bed, and vandy coming off a squeaker in the grove; but i must say through all my years; i never thought the volunteer program would stoop to such levels.
Vandy plays a decent dog this year and has some good wins against low comp., but to be favorite in this spot does not look right. Rodgers has been o.k., but they lack the full team effort d/t academic eligibilities to suit up here and go H-2-H.
Bray looks good at times and has outlets to get on top big here, imo, and even that deplorable defense that has epically collapsed all season for orange, should be able to deter and handle this mediocre vandy team.
Getting away from Knoxville and take a short drive to Nashville for this one will bring only the faithful of the orange crew. Duelly is done; and team once again laughing stalk. Redemption on a much weaker opponent here should sooth some of the harshness that surrounds the vol camp.
I've seen some strange things, but this one does not look the part - even bettors are shying away from the vol squad, and it appears they have hit the lowest of lows. Vandy acutally has gotten some love this year; but in this matchup, I see an all out bar fight effort from the bigger university to take out some angst and not only cover this rascal, but win in an oppnent humilating stomping.
Thank you for your time your honor and anxiously await your reply.
We shall see.
Deliveryman3 - Kansas +6
Love the depth, completeness yet simplicity of your argument. Must counter with the fact that at 5-5 SU and with explosive West Virginia up next, this game is of critical importance to the Bowl eligibility of the visitor. In addition, recent Kansas success has dropped this line a full TD less than where it would have been opening week. Good Luck making your chicken salad sandwich from chicken shit.
VERDICT - AGREE
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rgrikki92 - WKY(+3.5) vs ULL The only factor I'm looking at is the let down factor. ULL played FLA to the wire before losing on a blocked punt. I think they are gassed!
Hate to piss on your parade but my urinalisis will include a bit more depth.... the Rajin Cajin's are an emerging team who despite the loss to Florida remain 5-4, one game shy of the magical sixth win. 42-23 revenge for last year's loss provides ample motivation. On the other side of the ball is a Western KY team whose momentum has been totally shattered. After playing solid fundamental football for the better part of a year in recording a 15-0 ATS run, they have now lost consecutive games at home to Mid Tenn and Florida Atlantic. Last week's loss was a microcosm of their issues as they fell victim to 4 costly turnovers. Their defensive focus has waned in allowing ATL, MTSU and ULM 114 total points against them. Too tough for me to follow that negative momentum on the road with a team whose dreams have been shattered.
VERDICT - DISAGREE
Razorback - Tennessee +4
Some 30 years ago I authored an article (back when there were actually numerous yearly rivalries in Coll FB) about the way in which teams who dominated their rival as a favorite were a strong play when installed as underdog in the series. Such thinking would reinforce your point which is well thought out and insightful. And with the Vols needing a pair of wins to reach Bowl eligibility, this argument seems to have merit. Except for the fact that "with need you bleed". And there are few coaches or teams who have appeared to crumble under the pressure more than the Orange this year. Just from a fundamental perspective, let's consider the fact they have allowed 38 or more points to their last 6 opponents (yes, that includes Troy). Vande's magical 6th win might normally induce a letdown were it not for the rivalry aspect of this contest featuring 27-21 revenge from last year. From a technical perspective, consider that the Cons are now 10-2 ATS L2Y on this field and that Tennessee is on a 1-13 SU run in conference games. Maybe it's too late for HC Dooley, but the time seems right for Vande to change the fortunes in this rivalry.
Packers -3.5. Rationale: The Lions blow and the Packers kick ass. Packer injuries are the only thing keeping this from being 6.
Joe GavazziHate to piss on your parade
Thanks, Joe. BTW, it's more like a few drunks stumbling home from a bar than a parade.
L-TRAIN - Packers -3-
Though that analysis is accurate it's that type of simplistic thinking that makes 98% of the wagering public a long term loser. Detroit is a team that underachieves with high public expectation leading to your analysis of them "sucking". And they did LW at the Vikings who steamrolled them 189-60 overland in a 34-24 victory. In their defense, Detroit has captured 2/3 home games and covered 4/5 outings. So the bounceback home dog theory may hold a bit more merit than one would normally think. It is the Green Bay momentum that is of greater concern to Lion backers. They have won 4 straight all by 9+ points and have had a week to get healthy. Yet, at 6-3 they still trail the division leading Bears by a game insuring full focus. I agree that the Packers are the right side.
Judge Joe I hate playing against steam, but I do not see why or how psu is being favored here by 19. I think that this an overreaction to Indiana poor performance last week. The are a bit of a counterfeit however giving up 220 some yds per game, but psu isn't exactly a northwestern with a ton of speed. I would expect psu for the first time this year to come out a bit flat, after what should have been a win last week, if it were not for horrible big10 officiating. Indiana has kept it close vs mich st., and osu. I would expect the hoosiers to be out in full force sat,with there last chance to go bowling on the line. keeping this game much closer then I would prefer as a PSU fan. They should match up well with there strength in speed, and spreading a weak psu secondary. I also think that early in the year PSU was extremely undervalued, now I think is the time to be selling high the lions. I just hate betting against line moves this extreme it often doesn't end well for me.
MAXIMUS13 - Indiana +19
Line moves this year, as has been the case in recent years, are a near 50% proposition. Otherwise, we would all be followers, be rich and wouldn't need to communicate our opinions. The truth is ... when the ball goes in the air you want to be taking as many as you can or laying as few as you can. This is a tough mental set up for me as I don't have a good feel for how either team will react to 2 losses that were very divergent. That being said, I agree with your reasoning of not backing PSU as big chalk and that Indiana's passing attack could well have the ability to do no worse than come through the backdoor.