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Florida State -27 over Wake Forest: Florida State is in a big revenge spot here as they lost to the Deacons 35-30 last year. That 35 points they put up was the most they ever scored vs the Noles. Well this year the Deacon may just be taking on the best defense in the nation. Last year down the stretch, Florida State allowed a mere 11.6 ppg in their final 8 games and this year they bring back 9 starters from that Unit. Yes they have played 2 FCS opponents this year, but they have still allowed just 3 total points and last week in a little over a half vs Savannah State they allowed a mere 28 total yards. Now that’s playing some defense.  Wake did put up 28 points vs North Carolina last week, but just 20 points the week before vs Liberty. The Deacons bring back just 4 starters on offense and have the worst OL in the league and that is not good news when you’re about to face perhaps the best DL in the nation. I really don’t see how Wake will put up more than 7 points in this one. Last year the Noles put up 30.6 ppg and with 8 starters back they should easily exceed that this year. Wake’s defense allowed 27.8 ppg last year and with 7 starters back it doesn’t look as they have improved much after allowing North Carolina 27 points and 428 yards last week and FSU’s offense is far better than that of the Heels.  Last week the Deacons were in a dogfight with the Heels, while FSU has spent their last 2 weeks playing FCS foes and last week’s game last just a little over a half, so they are clearly the fresher team. This is their conference opener and with revenge from last year I look for them to be totally focused and blow the Deacons out.

Jeff Scott Sports  -  FSU -27

Clever Wake HC Grobe has recorded a 4-2 SU, 6-2 ATS series mark.  A case could be made that FSU revenge is more like dominance by Wake Forest.  And you must consider the back door potential with Wake QB Price who threw for  362 yards on 28/39 LW and is now averaging 8.3 PYA.  And despite Wake's upset of NC last week, this line is still a bloated touchdown more than it would have been the beginning of the season where it would have been based on the anticipated success of Florida State.  Nonetheless even considering the above there is little doubt that FSU will be hungry for this game, has a huge advantage at the point of attack and a big experience edge.

VERDICT - AGREE

Auburn -16.5

ULM comes off the biggest win in school history beating Arkansas in OT in Fayetteville last week.  They should fall hard back to earth this week again going on the road to face another SEC opponent in Auburn.  This is the Tiger's home opener and they are in dire need of a strong win in order to begin turning their season around.   The Tigers have been anything but impressive in their first 2 games struggling on both sides of the ball and suffering from a -5 TO differential, but there's no better way to begin righting the ship than to come home to face a Sun Belt Conference foe that is coming off an huge upset win.  Auburn wins this by 3 TDs giving them some much needed momentum.

Knobstan - AUBURN -16-

Anyone who viewed the Auburn / Miss St game last week would have serious doubts about the Tigers ability to control the line of scrimmage against even a 2nd class Sun Belt foe.  Based on the last 1+ yrs as well as Auburn HC Chizik's time at Iowa State would have serious reservations about his ability as head man.  A case can be made that the National title that he owns was far more a case of QB Cam Newton than his coaching ability.  Since that title, Auburn is now 5-10 ATS including 0-2 ATS this season.  And this bureau is not the only one who is downgrading his ability.  Both the National media and the people on the Plains are bringing the heat.  That having been said, there is a major line adjustment downward in this game based on Auburn's recent poor performance and the ULM upset.  In deed, the time is right to back a very hungry Tiger this week.

VERDICT - AGREE

posted this earleir today Joe, thx

UCLA -17

balanced attack with 300 ryds and pass yds in first two games vs Rice and Nebraska.......Houston allowed 86 pts in first two games and over 200 ryds to both Tex st and  La Tech  and allowed right at 600 yds offense to La Tech...Houston def allowing avg 521 yds of offense so far

Your argument is well articulated.  Regrettably, it has become so obvious to he betting public and the Linemaker that it has resulted in an over adjustment that is greater than 2 TDs from where this line would have been opening week.  I suggest you read my blogs concerning AFPs in early season play.  Note that they were 4-0 ATS last week on these contrary sides and that Houston is 9 of one such teams who face their current opponent with a -50 or worse net AFP differential.  

Week 3 momentum thinking is injurious to your bank roll.

VERDICT- DISAGREE

JUDGE JOE IS IN SESSION.... Get your final BEST BETS in before the weekend.  I look forward to reading all your info and insites.  We all grow our bankroll together!

JUDGE JOE

JUDGE JOE is back in session!  We confused you a little last week by opening a new thread..... JUDGE OUT OF ORDER! We are back this week on the main thread and would love to hear your BEST BETS for this weekend....(Remember.... only WEEKEND games) Your writeup doesn't have to be huge just your thoughts on why you like it.  We all learn from them!

LET'S HEAR FROM YOU....

#309 Army +7 @ #310 Wank Forest

Army finally got off the snide LW in a very controlling TOP fashion against tough ill husky team.  Now back on tabacco road to tangle w/ the deacons who just got demoralized by the tribe.  The Black Knights have their most seasoned squad in years, and HC finally implementing plan of 3 prong attack w/ some success.  Wank is highly touted, but tanked big in tally and I wonder if spread has been diminished some here w/ perception of latest/greatest success.

I have this game at a closely contested contest w/ Wank edging out Army, but margin of victory was only 3-4 pts., primarily d/t home turf adv.  I'm not convinced that WF has the tools to stop the triple, and thus see Army, once again, dominating TOP and having some success with currently listed #.

Pick:  Army +7