I wanted to add on to the original post on this but I can't seem to find it through the search feature. If management wants to link this somehow go ahead and do so.
Anyway, if you remember I was down at the Golden Nugget when they released their College Football Games of the Year. The betting limits were a dime apiece and I played 21 games. I believe the betting tickets have been archived somewhere on this site. Once again management?
I thought it would be insightful to follow how the lines are moving on these games and see how many points we can beat the closing line by, and in turn hopefully produce some winners.
Of the 21 wagers placed we are beating the current line in 20 of those games, the only game we don't have an edge is in the Oklahoma/Texas game where we took Texas +6 and the current line mirrors that. One game has been taken off the board and that was the Ohio State/Penn State game. We obviously bet it before the sanctions as we had Ohio State -3. While the game isn't currently on the board my current power ratings say the Buckeyes will be a 17 point favorite by the time the game is played. A likely 14 point edge that we will have to keep an eye on.
That leaves us with 20 other plays including the push with the Sooners & Longhorns. In those games we are ahead of the current number at the Golden Nugget by a combined 40 1/2 points, or roughly 2 points per game. Not a bad portfolio to start the season. I'll check back as these games are decided. Opening week we had Louisville -11 1/2 against Kentucky, the current line is -14. Let's get this party started!
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Thanks No Limit but that was the LVH thread. Still looking for the original Golden Nugget thread.
Thank you for the update Brian. As you can imagine, it is not easy to find current Golden Nugget CFB Games of the Year lines online. I really appreciate you posting photos of all of your tickets, that was fantastic.
As nice as you were to share your tickets, I should at least learn to spell Bryan correctly.
Good work, Bryan. I think I heard Krackenberger on Millman's show say beating the line was akin to a drug user going to pick up his drugs, where winning the game would be like actually getting high. Never a big drug user but the analogy makes sense
You want a handicapping tip? Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a bitch, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more. I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice
"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"
The good thing about beating the line is you know you were ahead of the curve. There is satisfaction in that. But if the games don't go your way it sure does give you a good excuse! As for Bill, he sure does have a way with words. Always enjoy speaking to him when we meet up, really nice guy who is willing to share.
Bryan, coming out week before Labor Day. I wanted a list to compare where they stand now. I am looking forward to comparing the openers vs. where they finally close out. Interesting to see how close or off they were across the board.
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Johnny, of the 67 games in which my line differed from theirs the game moved towards my number 55 times. Those moves averaged 2.0 points towards my line. The 12 games that moved away from my line did so by an average of 1.3 points per game. I also have the sheets from the last two years with their openers against the closers.
Props so far to Bryan:
Last week he won on Ohio State to go to 3-1.
Plays this week:
352 Texas -5 1/2 current line -6 1/2
394 Ohio State -3 current line -3 1/2
400 Florida +7 1/2 current line +2 1/2
FWIW I also played 362 Auburn +6 a couple weeks ago current line -10 but that's not included in our original 21