Obviously, it's been a tough couple of weeks for my picks here and no one is more upset and frustrated with my performance than me as CFB is my one speciality sport. This week I thought about doing a big discount but decided to just give out all of my premium picks for FREE right here on the forums (with the exception of my Game of the Week). This way you can get not only my picks but my analysis for each and every one of them.
Feel free to ask questions about any of this picks or if you have any general comments about this week's slate of games.
1* 132 Kansas10.5 (-110) Greek vs 131 Iowa St. |
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Analysis:
Iowa St won last year’s meeting 38-13 but the last time here they were -3 and lost outright 34-14. After last week’s 34-24 loss (+20.5) at home to Oklahoma, the Cyclones are just 1-8 SU on the season but have notably covered 6 of their last 7 games. The Jayhawks are also 1-8 SU on the season but have lost 8 straight since the opener going 2-6 ATS in those games. Last week they fell to West Virginia 48-21 (+32.5) on the road. This is the Cyclones’ largest road favorite role since 2005 and I love playing against mediocre teams in unique, large favorite roles (you have to learn how to win before you learn how to cover)! I like the home dog here who has performed much better at home this year (+41 ypg) and that includes a near upset of TCU and a very misleading 3-TD loss to Oklahoma St where the yards were even but the TO's killed Kansas.
2* 153 Colorado St.6.0 (-110) Pinnacle vs 154 Air Force |
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Analysis:
Two straight outright upsets in this series with Air Force winning 27-24 (+7.5) over No. 21 Colorado St in 2014 while last year Colorado St got revenge with a 38-23 (+3) win. Both teams come in sky high as the Falcons took home the Commander-In-Chief Trophy as they beat Army 31-12 (+1). Sophomore QB Worthman threw for 195 yards, added 63 yards rushing and looks like a very capable replacement to Romine. Meanwhile, Colorado St after a bye decimated Fresno St 37-0 (-16.5) and have now covered 4 straight games (6-1-1 ATS since the opener and that blowout loss to Colorado doesn’t look so bad now). The move back to last year’s starting QB Stevens due to injury has been a blessing in disguise for them. The Rams now need just one more win for bowl eligibility and that's also a positive handicap this time of year. On the flip side, AF is 2-11 ATS after playing Navy or Army since 2010 and could be in a bit of a flat spot after taking home the CIC Trophy.
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3* 158 W. Kentucky / 157 North TexasOVER 64.5 Pinnacle |
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Analysis:
Western Kentucky was leading FIU 49-7 after 3Q’s last week before they took the foot off the gas pedal and failed to cover as 33-point home favorites. On the other side, we wish Louisiana Tech would’ve taken their foot off the gas pedal as they were leading North Texas 31-24 in the 3Q and scored the game’s final 14 points as we failed to cover our North Texas +20 pick by a single point. As for this matchup, WKU is averaging 51 ppg in their last 6 games and the OVER is 4-1 in WKU’s last 5 games as their defense has allowed 29 ppg. North Texas is facing the best offense its’ seen all year and just gave up 45 to a similar LT team. Early weather forecast has this one Sunny and near 60 degrees with less than 10 mph wind. That's not too bad for a game played in Kentucky in Mid-November.
1* 188 Washington / 187 Southern CalUNDER 63.5 Sportsbook.agvs 206 Missouri |
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Analysis:
The Trojans are playing with revenge from a 17-12 (-17) loss at home to Washington last year which was the final game under Sarkisian. USC has won 5 straight games have been +150 yards in all 5 games. This atmosphere will really test young USC QB Sam Darnold who has been a revelation so far this season (20-3 TD-to-INT ratio). Washington QB Browning has a ridiculous 34-3 TD-to-INT ratio this season and the Huskies let out some frustration for the their initial CFB Playoff ranking last week as they dismantled Cal 66-27 (-19.5) with a 704-362 yard edge. USC has performed much better at home than on the road in the Helton era as the Trojans are just 3-7 SU/2-8 ATS on the road. Washington is 8-1 to the OVER this year which has driven up this totals’ line but USC counters with 5 straight UNDERS. They've played a slower tempo under head coach Helton (UNDER is 11-4 last 15 games) and Washington is unlikely to run up the score here as they've done against the weaker teams on their schedule this season.
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1* 200 Oklahoma-17.0 (-110) Pinnacle vs 199 Baylor |
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Analysis:
After a 6-0 start, Baylor has lost 2 straight and last week were crushed at home by TCU 62-22 (-7.5). With an interim coach, a depth-shy roster that will see them playing without RB Linwood here (suspension) and a lot of off-field turmoil, this is a team that you need to fade immediately. It’s not like they’ve been good anyways this year at 2-6 ATS while playing a very soft schedule. On the other side, Oklahoma has a couple of extra days to prepare following a 34-24 (-20.5) win at Iowa St last Thursday. They are 6-0 in Big 12 play and welcome back RB’s Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon this week. No doubt the Sooners want revenge from an embarrassing 48-14 (+5.5) home loss to the Bears 2 years ago and they’ll get it in easy fashion over a dumpster fire Baylor team. This line has climbed throughout the week. I'd suggest you get in early.
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1* 205 Vanderbilt3.5 (-110) Pinnacle vs 206 Missouri |
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Analysis:
Vanderbilt won last year’s game 10-3 (+1.5). Missouri is quite simply in a free fall as they have lost 5 straight games and also have gone 0-5 ATS in those games after a 31-21 (+6.5) loss at South Carolina last week. There will be no bowl game for them at 2-7 SU. On the other side, Vanderbilt is 4-5 SU and are thinking bowl here as they host a banged up Mississippi team next week. Last week they easily covered as 26-point road underdogs at Auburn in a 23-16 loss and have now covered 3 of their last 4 away from home. They’ve also been in every game this year losing by more than 7 only once. I would not be surprised at an outright upset here as we absolutely love defensive dogs.
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If you are interested in my 3* CFB Game of Week (a live underdog in a rivalry game), you can purchase it here!
Best of luck!