Keep in mind, these computer lines don’t take into consideration off-the-field factors like revenge or flat spots. They are basically a power-rating number difference between the two teams that also takes into consideration the home field advantage.
Games where there have been of difference of more than 3 points has seen my computer lines beat the Vegas line at a 78-52-2 (60%) clip so far this season including a 13-4 performance a week ago. That's pretty solid and actually better than my own personal handicapping.
Of the 16 games where my computer is off more than 3 points compared to the Vegas line, my 5 favorite teams to back would be Navy +7, Charlotte +19.5, North Texas +20, Stanford -14.5 and Northwestern +7
Let me know if you have any questions or concerns,
Brad
Game |
Line |
Computer |
Difference |
301 Bowling Green |
|
|
|
302 Northern Illinois |
-17 |
-14.75 |
+2.25 |
303 Western Michigan |
|
|
|
304 Ball State |
+17.5 |
+16.81 |
+0.69 |
305 Toledo |
|
|
|
306 Akron |
+10 |
+9.03 |
+0.97 |
309 Buffalo |
|
|
|
310 Ohio |
-19 |
-15.03 |
+3.97 |
311 Arkansas State |
|
|
|
312 Georgia State |
+4.5 |
+7.22 |
-2.72 |
313 Oklahoma |
|
|
|
314 Iowa State |
+20.5 |
+16.16 |
+4.34 |
315 UCLA |
|
|
|
316 Colorado |
-12.5 |
-8.04 |
+4.46 |
317 Central Michigan |
|
|
|
318 Miami Ohio |
+3.5 |
+5.81 |
-2.31 |
319 Temple |
|
|
|
320 Connecticut |
+10 |
+9.48 |
+0.52 |
321 San Jose State |
|
|
|
322 Boise State |
-29.5 |
-27.08 |
+2.42 |
323 Navy |
|
|
|
324 Notre Dame |
-7 |
-3.97 |
+3.03 |
325 Texas State |
|
|
|
326 Appalachian St |
-31.5 |
-30.11 |
+1.39 |
327 BYU |
|
|
|
328 Cincinnati |
+7.5 |
+8.4 |
-0.9 |
329 Air Force |
|
|
|
330 Army |
-1.5 |
-1.75 |
-0.25 |
331 Louisville |
|
|
|
332 Boston College |
+25 |
+15.91 |
+9.09 |
333 Purdue |
|
|
|
334 Minnesota |
-17 |
-16.68 |
+0.32 |
335 Virginia Tech |
|
|
|
336 Duke |
+11 |
+9.25 |
+1.75 |
337 Syracuse |
|
|
|
338 Clemson |
-27 |
-25.73 |
+1.27 |
339 Kansas |
|
|
|
340 West Virginia |
-34.5 |
-34.21 |
+0.29 |
341 Indiana |
|
|
|
342 Rutgers |
+14 |
+10.01 |
+3.99 |
343 Michigan State |
|
|
|
344 Illinois |
+7 |
+5.89 |
+1.11 |
345 Florida State |
|
|
|
346 NC State |
+5.5 |
+8.16 |
-2.66 |
347 Maryland |
|
|
|
348 Michigan |
-31 |
-28.4 |
+2.6 |
349 Virginia |
|
|
|
350 Wake Forest |
-3 |
-2.19 |
+0.81 |
351 Oklahoma State |
|
|
|
352 Kansas State |
-2.5 |
+0.03 |
+2.53 |
353 East Carolina |
|
|
|
354 Tulsa |
-8.5 |
-6.7 |
+1.8 |
355 Tex San Antonio |
|
|
|
356 Middle Tennessee |
-20.5 |
-15.9 |
+4.6 |
357 Charlotte |
|
|
|
358 Southern Miss |
-19.5 |
-14.56 |
+4.94 |
359 TCU |
|
|
|
360 Baylor |
-8 |
-10.34 |
-2.34 |
361 Pittsburgh |
|
|
|
362 Miami, FL |
-3 |
-3.13 |
-0.13 |
363 Georgia Tech |
|
|
|
364 North Carolina |
-10.5 |
-12.41 |
-1.91 |
365 Vanderbilt |
|
|
|
366 Auburn |
-25.5 |
-23.75 |
+1.75 |
367 Georgia |
|
|
|
368 Kentucky |
+2.5 |
+0.52 |
+1.98 |
369 Florida |
|
|
|
370 Arkansas |
+4 |
+2.77 |
+1.23 |
371 Fresno State |
|
|
|
372 Colorado State |
-15.5 |
-11.57 |
+3.93 |
373 Georgia Southern |
|
|
|
374 Mississippi |
-27.5 |
-25.63 |
+1.87 |
375 Massachusetts |
|
|
|
376 Troy |
-21 |
-17.83 |
+3.17 |
377 Florida Atlantic |
|
|
|
378 Rice |
-4 |
-3.13 |
+0.87 |
379 Utah State |
|
|
|
380 Wyoming |
-5.5 |
-6.31 |
-0.81 |
381 Missouri |
|
|
|
382 South Carolina |
-7 |
-9.71 |
-2.71 |
383 South Alabama |
|
|
|
384 UL - Monroe |
+13.5 |
+11.14 |
+2.36 |
385 Idaho |
|
|
|
386 UL - Lafayette |
-5.5 |
-4.01 |
+1.49 |
387 Florida International |
|
|
|
388 Western Kentucky |
-30 |
-23.83 |
+6.17 |
389 Louisiana Tech |
|
|
|
390 North Texas |
+20 |
+13.6 |
+6.4 |
391 Washington |
|
|
|
392 California |
+17 |
+14.22 |
+2.78 |
393 Oregon |
|
|
|
394 USC |
-17 |
-15.07 |
+1.93 |
395 Marshall |
|
|
|
396 Old Dominion |
-10.5 |
-8.07 |
+2.43 |
397 Hawaii |
|
|
|
398 San Diego State |
-21.5 |
-21.73 |
-0.23 |
399 Texas |
|
|
|
400 Texas Tech |
+3.5 |
+0.09 |
+3.41 |
401 Texas A&M |
|
|
|
402 Mississippi State |
+13 |
+10.04 |
+2.96 |
403 Memphis |
|
|
|
404 SMU |
+3 |
+3.6 |
-0.6 |
405 Iowa |
|
|
|
406 Penn State |
-7.5 |
-8.15 |
-0.65 |
407 Oregon State |
|
|
|
408 Stanford |
-14.5 |
-21.83 |
-7.33 |
409 Arizona |
|
|
|
410 Washington State |
-16.5 |
-13.99 |
+2.51 |
411 Alabama |
|
|
|
412 LSU |
+7.5 |
+4.65 |
+2.85 |
413 Wisconsin |
|
|
|
414 Northwestern |
+7 |
+3.22 |
+3.78 |
415 Nebraska |
|
|
|
416 Ohio State |
-17 |
-13.05 |
+3.95 |
417 Nevada |
|
|
|
418 New Mexico |
-14.5 |
-11.99 |
+2.51 |
419 Tulane |
|
|
|
420 Central Florida |
-16.5 |
-16.43 |
+0.07 |