Went 2-3 last week. I have five definite picks this week and have also included my notes for other games I'm considering.
Definite plays
Win - Charlotte @ Temple -26.5 – Saw this game in person last year, Charlotte couldn’t score and could keep a disinterested Temple team out of the end zone. Temple is off to a rougher start this season but Charlotte is still at the bottom of FBS. Temple one win was a shutout of Stony Brook, who beat North Dakota (not ND State) and a Richmond team that thumped Virginia.
Loss - Bad beat on the fumble on the BYU 3 yard line but a loss is a loss - BYU @ West Virginia -7 – First game outside the state of Utah for the new BYU coach. West Virginia is coming off of a bye week and should be rested and ready for a Cougars team a long way from home.
Win - Stanford @ UCLA UNDER 46.5 – California classes are finally back in session so the football teams will be back to having their focus split between football and academics. This should be a low scoring heavy weight fight between two of the better teams in the Pac 12.
Loss - Iowa -14 @ Rutgers – I love these FCS loss bounce back games. I believe that this is the first meeting between the two teams since Rutgers joined the Big 10. Look for Iowa to finally welcome them into the league.
Win - South Carolina @ Kentucky -2 – South Carolina is a fourth quarter rally at Vandy and East Carolina committing 3 turnovers in the Gamecock red zone from being 0-3. Both teams have look ahead games next week but Kentucky has to have this game for any shot at a bowl this season.
Possible plays
Win - Penn State @ Michigan -17 – Michigan gets off to a good start after letting Colorado jump out to a lead last week. Michigan won by 12 in Happy Valley last year, I think Michigan is improved while Penn State is the same or worse.
Win - North Texas +7 @ Rice – Is Rice getting too much credit for a Jim Grobe led Baylor not blowing them out of their own building? Rice was blown out by Western Kentucky and Army and has a trip to Southern Miss on deck. Great let down look ahead spot for Mean Green to take advantage of here.
Win - Georgia Southern @ Western Michigan -7 – Western Michigan is rolling while Georgia Southern struggled with UL Monroe. This will be the biggest test for Georgia Southern’s new head coach so far this year. Also the farthest road trip for the Eagles this season.
Win - New Mexico State @ Troy -20 – Troy can light up the score board and played Clemson close. New Mexico State pulled out a win in their big rivalry game but got thumped by below average UTEP and Kentucky teams.
Win - Oklahoma State @ Baylor -8 – Jim Grobe doesn’t like blowing teams out like the former Baylor coach used to do. I think that Bears are still a lot more talented than the Cowboys.
Loss - Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati -17.5 – The Redhawks caught Cincy in a let down look ahead spot last year. The Bearcats are in the same spot this season but with extra prep time and a close game last year I don’t expect Tuberville to let it happen again.
Win - Army @ Buffalo +14 – Third road game this month for the Black Knights. Looking for an emotional letdown after they played their hearts out for their lost teammate last week.
Loss - Houston @ Texas State +33.5 – Houston is banged up from a tough game against Cincinnati and have the only team that beat them last year, UConn, up next. Texas State can score and should sneak in the back door to cover here.
Homer pick of the week
Loss - East Carolina +14 @ Va Tech – Pirates match up well here. Outplayed South Carolina last week but turned the ball three times in the Gamecock red zone to lose the game. Va Tech has 9 turnovers in 3 games so far. This looks like pros (Va Tech) vs joes (East Carolina) on the line movement. Joes do win sometimes.