Well here it is, the toughest on the tough. A lot of people seem to love to take shots at the SEC. I guess that is what happens when you reach that level. You know, that level the other leagues aspire to reach. Yes, I do defend the league. While the east is down some, as I have stated as being my own opinion. The West is loaded to the gills. Frankly guys until that point in time where I see another conference make a stronger case I will still vote it as the toughest in the nation. Last year Bama manhandled a very stout Michigan State club and then handed another very good Clemson squad their only loss of the season. I'm from the show me state, Saban and his program just continue to show me, and everyone without blinders on. A lot of critics when push comes to shove would dearly love to have many of the recruits that year in and year out fill out these rosters. A lot of folks take shots at Nick Saban, once again many would give their rest arm, truth be told to have Saban take over the reigns at their programs. I well recall listening when Saban left the Miami Dolphins to head to Alabama and Colin Cowherd was going on about how Saban and his wife would get bored and tire of the slow life in Bama. After Miami it would just be too slow. That was the gist of his case. Well, the pace in Alabama seems to have suited them just fine thank you. His record speaks for itself, in spades. Anyway, here we go. Once again. These are just the personal thoughts and observations from this one handicapper. Nothing whatsoever personal if I step on anyone's toes.
ALABAMA: Starting at the top. Many feel LSU might be ready to step up and take the big dog down. Could be. But they will have to show me. One of the biggest keys will be replacing those defensive lineman they lost. Well, the beauty of Bama is they truly reload. That is a phrase that gets worn out some but it is the gospel truth under Saban at Alabama. Allen is coming back and Dalvin Thompson gives all appearances of being NFL caliber. Gee, what a shock. I do not see all that much of a drop off a linebacker either. If you are not familiar with the name Shaun Dion Hamilton then get ready. All the physical tools and the football sense to go along. Smart, athletic will all the instincts to go along. The entire package. It's no state secret everyone is wanting to see how things play out under center. If the team has a legitimate question mark I suppose it's there and admittedly that is the last position you want question marks. But if any program can sustain it's success with these marks it's the Tide. It's going to be a brutal, yes, brutal task for Saban and his staff to retool and navigate this team to another league title. But they have the pedigree to do it. Not only the league, but the whole deal. Yes, I feel they can win the whole enchilada once again. Toughest competition will come from LSU in their own division. Stubborn fact is they return five starters from that wrecking crew last year and have plenty of young studs ready to accept larger roles. The schedule gets off to a big test right off the bat facing the Trojans from USC. No, the Trojans don't match up particularly well against the Tide but make no mistake about it, if Bama does not bring it's A game and Southern Cal does then they could get tripped up early on. We all know it's better to lose early than late but with the death march that is the SEC it could be a fatal blow. I don't see that happening though frankly. Jeremy Pruitt has some really big shoes to fill with Smart leaving for Athens and the Bulldogs. Lot of pressure there but as mentioned, he has the horses to run with. I look at the schedule and just shake my head. Daunting is not the word. I do feel badly for Kent on september 24th, that could be like clubbing baby seals. Subs or not. Ugly written all over it. I know I am being very flattering of this team but I am a realist. They are just a bad ass good football program. It is what it is. And with the way they keep recruiting expect more of the same until Cowherds prediction may finally come true some day and Saban gets bored and departs. When I think of Alabama one word keeps coming to mind. RESPECT.
LSU: Well Les Miles escaped the hangman's noose and is back where he belongs. On the sidelines at LSU. I have been a fan of Miles since his days at Oklahoma State. The man can flat out recruit and is also a better sideline coach than most will give him credit for. Many will take exception to that, I get it. Facts are indeed stubborn things and the fact is Miles has compiled a stellar record at LSU going 112-32. And he was on the hot seat. Kind of hard to get the brain around that but it shows the monster expectations these guys coach and live under. Mark Richt will testify to that. Miles has loads of talent coming back for him and on both sides of the ball. How many coaches would love to have Leonard Fournette in their back fields. Yes, I am including those guys who coach on sundays. There are many who are banging the drum making the case they are ready to unseat the Tide, maybe so. Very interesting opening week game for Miles club as they venture north to meet Wisconsin. Much like the Tide they could get tripped up if they don't come ready to rumble. You can bet your ass the Badgers will be ready and waiting. The Big 10 is sick and tired of all the SEC chatter and the Badgers would love nothing more than to shove the ball down the Tigers throats. But, as we all know, big difference between want to, and can do. The odds makers have the Badgers as heavy dogs to this team and with decent reason. There are no preseason games so that makes the question marks grow magnified. Pretty intriguing match up and I am looking forward to it. Oh, and the thing is taking place in Lambeau field in Green Bay. That only makes the Badgers just that much more full of piss and vinegar. I can see Miles club going 11-1 or maybe 10-2. They are that good. Yes, I have them pegged a notch below the Tide. Only because they are THAT good.
OLE MISS: The Rebels finished last season with a solid 10-3 mark overall and 6-2 in conference action. QB Chad Kelly can sometimes remind you of Jim but also can let his fiery temper interfere with his decision making. The kid is passionate and that is an understatement. Harness that and he will be something truly special. The tools are all in place. I'm telling you guys also, that beat down of Oklahoma State last season in the Sugar Bowl 48-20 was no accident. The Rebels are a legit power program. I know I keep saying that but it's simply a fact of life is the SEC west. One thing that is so often overlooked with the success of the truly heavyweight programs is having stability in the coaching ranks. No issue there in Oxford as seven of the nine coaches with Hugh Freeze were part of the head coach's original staff. My good friend, the late coach Larry Smith told me once the importance of this. Not easy thing to do. One hole to fill that young Kelly will have to contend with is the huge loss of his star wide out Laquon Treadwell. He has some skilled guys coming back though and his big senior tight end Evan Engram should get more touches this season. By all accounts he is another guy who could be playing on sundays. Just like Bama and LSU the Rebels are biting off a big chew in the opening weekend. They will be butting heads with the Seminoles of Florida State in a marquee match up. As I type this in the Rebels are a 6.5 to 7 point dog. Words cannot say what a huge win this would be for Freeze and his club. They get a cup cake the next game but next up stands Alabama and then Georgia. The rubber meets the road early for this club. They could vault into national prominence or see their season go off the rails early. That is a murderous stretch staring them down. This is a team that has won 19 games the past two seasons and that is rare air for this program. Actually the best since way back 1959 when yours truly was only a year old and kicking a ball around in the cradle. Yes, a long time back. Frankly I can see the Rebels taking a small step back this season. And that's too bad because this is a quality, deep and loaded club. But the schedule is sick early on. Besides what I mentioned already they also have road trips to Arkansas, LSU and Texas A&M on the agenda. Good grief. Plus a late season trap game at Vandy who can play defense well enough to trip up about anyone. I like this team, I respect Freeze and his staff. Just a mountain to climb here. Mt Everest style.
ARKANSAS: Now we get to the Razorbacks. When Missouri departed the Big 12 the school was in a fix. Many, and I mean many if not all the fan base was not crazy about losing the rivalry with Kansas. Well, they have worked overtime trying to build up and cultivate a rivalry with our southern border neighbors Arkansas. Problem is there is just no hate there. You cannot manufacture a college rivalry. Those things are deep, deep rooted. As a youngster in central missouri you are taught to utter three words as a kid learning to speak. Mama, daddy and KU sucks. Okay, three words and a phrase. Anyway, the second half of the season last year the Hogs were a machine. A force to be reckoned with. That offensive line was a thing of beauty to behold. Big nasty, athletic guys with a mean streak who loved to pancake people. This kind of shapes up as a rebuilding year for the Hogs on offense. Three new hogs on the O line and a new QB, plus a group of guys to carry the package. On the defensive side they do bring back nine starters provide they get through camp healthy. This program has a disturbing habit of breaking slow from the gate and yes, that could be fatal against a pesky Louisiana Tech squad. Provided they escape that possible mess they have their key early battle looming next at TCU. That game could be looked at as a coin flip right now guys. But truthfully speaking, as schedules in this league go the Hogs have a favorable one. They get key games at home against Alabama, Ole Miss, Florida and LSU, They close out the regular season with road trips to Mississippi State and Missouri. I look for an improved defense this year but some regression on the offensive end. Man, it's so early and so hard to project a team like Arkansas. I can honestly see things going either north or south with this bunch. They will go bowling but as Missouri is learning it is just so damn hard to rebuild a program in the SEC and that is doubled down in the west. Very good football team. I suppose it just all comes down to expectations in Fayetteville. Once again, they really, really need to keep from stepping on their johnson's against Tech in the opener.
TEXAS A&M: Okay, now we venture on to Texas and College Station to take a look at the Aggie's. Kevin Sumlin is starting to feel a little heat. Goes with the territory coach. Just ask Charlie Strong over in Austin. Expectations are a bitch. A mean and twisted bitch. Once again I go back to my friend, the late coach Smith who told of of his experiences with much the same his his time at USC. Alumni can be a asset but also a heavy cross to bear. Sumlin needs a good season and a measuring stick comes up early with a talented UCLA club coming to get it on. That one game can set the tone for the Aggies. I personally think they get by the Bruins but it has all the potential there for a good game. His quality hiring of former Bruins OC Noel Mazzone could prove priceless in this match up. I'll be frank. I had some real issues with the Aggies defense last season and voiced them a lot on the forum. They could look so bad. I am hearing good things about the defense going into this season and hopefully its not all chatter. John Chavis is highly regarded with good reason. The athletes are in place. I expect a solid unit on the field this season. That is KEY! Trevor Knight is a stud quarterback and was a prized pick up for Sumlin. This program has leaned heavily on the offense under Sumlin and if the defense can carry their weight I can see this team climbing over the Hogs in my projection. Candidly I just don't see a world of difference as I type this up between the two. Knight does have a deep corps of guys to go to and there is no question Keith Ford is a top tier type running back. Provided they send the Bruins packing with a loss they have a big game in week three looming against Auburn down at their place. Both teams in similar positions. If they escape that one they have the Hogs coming to College Station next. So the temp will be set early for the Aggies. College Station is one of the toughest venues to travel and win at, home of the 12th man. Amazing fan base. One thing that flies under the radar but can be key is of course always the kicking game. Sumlin is having to break in a pair of kickers to step in and replace his all conference guys who departed, Kaser and Bertolet. Most fans overlook how critical the kicking game truly can be. Okay guys, just think back to your bets. How many times over the years have your bets come down to the leg of the kid you never gave much thought to? Uh huh, more times than we care to recall. This is a possible big question mark for the Aggies going into this season.
AUBURN: Does not seem that long ago does it that Gus Malzahn has the Tigers in the title game. Times can change quickly in college football. Gus is up against it guys. His Tigers were a pretty young club last season and had some obvious growing pains. Hopefully they will grow from that. Hard to fathom that this team only won a pair of games in league play last season. That is twilight zone type stuff for the folks down at Auburn. Jeremy Johnson crashed hard last year. What was weird about the whole damn thing is Gus is regarded as one of the sharpest offensive minds in the country. But the stubborn fact is his team averaged a very mediocre 22 points a game in conference action. Make no mistake about it, he has spent countless hours this off season trying to adjust that. As he should. I still have some concerns for the Tigers under center and that does not bode well considering they open up against mighty, yes, I said mighty, Clemson in the opener. A lot of great games to kick off and yes, I consider this one of them. Auburn will be taking the field with a monster chip on their shoulder. This is a very, very proud program and fan base. They will be wanting a piece of Clemson. And of course, they will get it. Sweeny's club and trade blows with anyone, anywhere. Bottom line is I trust Gus, hell, I trust his system, but if you don't have the guy under center to drive the car it is going to spit and sputter. Have to wait and see as well on defense. Third DC in as many years. In the end just too many question marks for me to reach much with this club. I see an overall .500 mark maybe and a bowl appearance. But not enough to satisfy most of the Tiger faithful. Gus could really be feeling some heat after this year. They close out the season at Bama and if the Tide clean their clocks things could get ugly down there.
MISSISSIPPI STATE: I like Dan Mullen, a lot. He is a very sound football mind and coach. Unfortunately someone has to bring up the rear in this killer league and his Bulldogs get my vote. Best last place club in the country. Mullen has managed to navigate his Bulldogs to six straight bowl games. But losing Dak Prescott is just a monster challenge. The kid was a play maker AND leader on the field AND locker room. He was the whole package. That is what I totally respected about Chase Daniel when he was at Mizzou. He got more out of his talent than any QB I'd seen come though. If Chase Daniel had the physical tools of former Tigers QB Blaine Gabbert he would be well on his way to a hall of fame career. He was that smart and tough. The team rallied behind his leadership. On the flip side if Gabbert had Chase's mental make up the same could be the same for him. But, I apologize, this is about the Bulldogs. I think as this league goes the schedule is favorable for Mullen and his club. The last three games that include road games at Bama and Ole Miss combined with a game against Arkansas could spell the difference between going bowling and staying at home. Just too many question marks replacing Prescott for me. Another club dealing with their third straight year with a new DC, makes it tough. Remember what I said about coaching stability. It does count guys. All part of the package that goes into long term success.
There it is guys. Just some random thoughts about each program as we enter the new season. It is always entertaining to look back at pre season outlooks and review them once the dust has settles. Yes, there will likely be some teams step up and some will fall back. This league is just brutal. Yes, I do respect it. A ton. As a handicapper I can tell you I place my emphasis on two leagues primarily. The SEC and the Big 12. I do not use the term expert because I think that makes one sound like an ego maniac jerk. But, as my family and friends could readily tell you, I live and breathe football for much of the year. Many people ask my wife how she can stand it. Hell, I ask my wife how she can stand it. But not many people get to do what they have a passion for and deep down love for a living. I can make that statement. I have been handicapping and betting on football since Dan Devine was on the sidelines at Mizzou. Yes, I have some trusted sources. I will leave it at that. Nothing fixed or stupid like that, just solid relevant information. Anyway, as I stated at the outset, these are simply some random thoughts about the SEC. I know when I speak so glowingly of the league it ruffles some feathers. I only say, they will play the games. If someone else can prove it wrong I will be the first to acknowledge it.
Opening kick off is looming. Get ready to strap it on guys. It's about to get real.
>>> SEC East Vegas Preview