Saturday, Nov. 28
NCAA Football
Oklahoma (-7, 67.5) at Oklahoma State (8 pm ET, ABC)
This line opened less than a touchdown, but since it has moved higher to the key number of -7, the value has been lost. If the line does drop back down to -6.5 or less, take a look at Oklahoma.
Oklahoma State comes in off their first loss of the season; Baylor beat them 45-35 last week. That loss eliminated the Cowboys from the national title picture and sets them up for a hangover here even though they are playing their in-state rival. Oklahoma State is only slightly above average on both sides of the ball this season. The Cowboys' offense average 6.5 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 6.1 yppl), while their defense allows 5.4 yards per play (versus opponents that average 5.8 yppl).
Oklahoma also enters this game with a 10-1 SU record, but they have been a much stronger team on the line of scrimmage this season. The Sooners are averaging 6.9 yards per play on offense (versus opponents that allow 5.9 yppl), while OU's defense is permitting just 4.6 yards per play (versus opponents that average 6.0 yppl).
Oklahoma does have a tendency to overlook opponents, such as their Texas loss earlier this year as a -16.5 point favorite. However, the Sooners should remain focused for this game since they are back in the national title picture and especially since they lost outright as a -19.5 point home favorite last year versus Oklahoma State.
---------------------
My 3 strongest NCAA Football Best Bets for Saturday are now posted:
/pregamepros/pro-bettor/bettor.aspx?id=223439#capper