The Monday free play on LSU failed as Marquette played with some real fire, shot the ball well and earned the victory against the Tigers. I was on the wrong side basically from start to finish, although I still really like this LSU team moving forward. Today’s comp is on a Saturday football game that I’ve already played.
145 OHIO STATE at 146 MICHIGAN
Take: MICHIGAN -1.5
Right off the top, I can offer that my numbers say Ohio State is slightly superior to Michigan. Therefore, under ordinary circumstances, there’s no way I would give points with the Wolverines. In fact, I might normally be looking to tail the Buckeyes in a bounce back scenario against their main rival. But these are clearly not your everyday, garden variety circumstances.
The last-second loss to Michigan State on Saturday was absolutely demoralizing for the Buckeyes. The dream of a perfect season and a successful defense of their national championship is shot on one count and more than likely toast on the other as well. Ohio State obviously cannot go unbeaten, so that’s off the table. As for getting to the playoffs, they still have a pulse but it’s as faint as it gets. Ohio State would have to beat Michigan Saturday, while also having Michigan State lose to Penn State. Then the Buckeyes would have to knock off Iowa in the Big Ten title game, and would also need either Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma and/or Notre Dame to lose a game. Even if all that happens, it’s up in the air as to whether the Buckeyes get the playoff invite.
Based on what took place following the loss to the Spartans, I don’t know if any of the previously mentioned scenarios matter. No doubt, emotion played a role, but the comments of Ezekiel Elliot and Cardale Jones are now a matter of record. From a team perspective, the statements made were unquestionably damaging, and I doubt that harmony is going to suddenly prevail in a matter of just a few days.
Michigan is likely to enter this ultimate rivalry game with a completely different state of mind. The Wolverines didn’t play a great game at Penn State, but they maintained their momentum with the win and are now poised for what is their most meaningful game. Make no mistake, while there’s a big bowl invite waiting, the win that Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines really want is this one. The 2015 campaign has been sensational for Michigan in terms of exceeding expectations. But losing to Ohio State would render all of that meaningless.
I think this is a game where one should simply ignore the data and focus on the intangibles. This game could not come at a worse time for the Buckeyes, and I could say that if they were facing Michigan Tech rather than Michigan. The Wolverines, on the other hand, will have zero need for any pep talks to get prepped for this game. I’ve been around long enough to realize that almost nothing that takes place in any sporting venue should be considered shocking. But the advantages here for Michigan are really substantial. The number being where it is right now is barely a concern and I’m already on Michigan to nail the win and cover in this one.