Good write up. I think that you do make a good case for this being a letdown/look ahead spot for Clemson. The added bonus is that Dabo is not one to go for the throat stomp.
For clarification, NC State had a bye before their game with Wake Forest, also NC State beat the spread in 2013 but didn't win the game (spread was 13 or 14, Clemson won by 12). NC State did beat Clemson in Raleigh in 2011, which was their most recent victory against the Tigers.
I wouldn't put anything on the ML, though. Clemson is only the second team with a winning record that NC State has faced so far this year, the other one being Eastern Kentucky, a pretty good FCS team. Clemson's schedule hasn't been a murder's row but they have beaten ND, Georgia Tech (which is still a good team, they just had a brutal run in their schedule) and App State, who Bleacher Report has higher in their current rankings (App State is #40) than NC State (#46) or any of NC State's opponents to date (Louisville is highest at #52, three others are between 103-121). Clemson is #3 this week.
Good luck with your play. Keep the write ups coming!