I was ready and waiting to bet West Virginia Sunday afternoon before the lines came out for several reasons. 1. Stylistically this is a good match-up for West Virginia. Maryland's new 4-3 defense under Keith Dudzinski has struggled against the spread as evidenced by their poor performance against Bowling Green. They will have their hands full against West Virginia's air raid offense. 2. Maryland has a young and inexperienced offensive line and this will be their first road game. 3. Last year's final score of West Virginia 40 Maryland 37 was misleading. West Virginia out-gained Maryland by 247 yards and lost 3 fumbles. 4. West Virginia is coming off a bye and will have an extra week to prepare for Maryland. So you can see why I was itching to pull the trigger on West Virginia at a reasonable number. HOWEVER, the number came out too high. The talent discrepancy between these two teams simply does not justify a 16.5 point spread. The oddsmakers and bettors have overreacted to each team's start to the season. No one was more bullish than me on West Virginia to start the season (relative to the market's expectations) and I correctly identified that they were a solid bet against Georgia Southern even as the money came in against me. You can read that write-up here: /pregame-forums/f/12/t/1290590.aspx Yet while West Virginia has looked impressive in their 2-0 start those wins have come against Georgia Southern and Liberty. This will be their first true test against real players and asking them to cover 16.5 isn't reasonable. As a Mountaineer fan would I prefer to have a WVU -7 ticket in my pocket right now? Absolutely. But you have to take what Mr. Market gives you and he just threw a fat one down the middle.
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: MARYLAND +16.5
9/26/2015 3:00:00 PM |
CFB Sides |
Maryland |
Mountaineers |
Terrapins |
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16.5 (-105) |