Coach Fletcher’s Winning Approach to College Football
College football is definitely a different animal than the pro game. And that is the first thing you have to keep in mind. They have issues and situations that just don’t happen in the pros.
I’m a touch old school in some ways. I use local newspapers and other forms of local media to get the real feel of a team. Not all papers are homers for their team. Things that the national media don’t pick up can be found in local news outlets.
Again, as in NFL, I make my own lines and look for the soft spot against the book’s lines. Sometimes this leads to making a play early in the week. I don’t have a problem with that.
I don’t play a lot of games every week. If you are looking for a guy that will give you 10 plays on any given Saturday, I’m probably not your guy. I may give 3-7 or in that range, but as far as having a play on the 9am, 12 noon, 3pm, 6pm and 9pm games, it isn’t going to happen.
I don’t play a lot of tv games or big top 10 games. These games get enough scrutiny from the players, media and books to keep the advantage for either side to a minimum. That’s not to say I will never do it, but just because the #1 team is playing the #3 team, you don’t have to bet it.
As in the NFL, I believe it is ok to pass on a bet. If the lines aren’t there, you need to walk away.
I won’t force a play. That’s a quick path to the poor house. I know there are action hounds out there that need to have a play on every tv game, for example. You can’t win doing that. You can’t win by forcing plays.
I like to focus on the play of the offensive and defensive lines. While you may think the qb and running backs determine the outcome of football games, I believe it comes down to the strengths or weaknesses found in the offensive or defensive lines. Many players and so-called experts couldn’t name the lineman on the team they are betting. I do a lot of study on the defensive side of the ball. Obviously I study the offensive side thoroughly, but I believe games are won and covered by the defense.
I will do a strong work up on the special teams. The kicking game is crucial in so many ways that you can’t afford to leave it out of the equation. While rule makers are doing their best to eliminate the kick off returns, it still determines field position and has to be looked at from the kicker’s and the runner’s perspective.
Weather is a major force in college football. I use up to the second radar and doplar reports to understand how the weather is going to affect the offense, defense and kicking game. This information is readily available even to the home handicappers but is underused.
Finally, I take a good look at the major coaching positions on every team. This isn’t always necessary in the NFL to dig this deep, but dealing with teenagers and young adults you need to know the kind of relationships that have formed between the coaches and the players. It certainly isn’t the number one factor in any game, but when a team is going bad or a team is going good, I want to know.
Hopefully you find this informative. I know off the bat that action hounds will probably be unhappy no matter who they choose for help. You could go 70% on the year then have a week where you go 1-6 and all hell breaks loose. Most of my clients are long term and have found out that a more conservative approach in the number of games played beats the scattergun approach. After all, what matters is whether you are paying or collecting at the end of the day.
71-36 in CFB last Season
If you have any further questions, concerns or comments, feel free to contact me.
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